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Please note: SP Equal Favourite is considered a selection under the terms of the method. Thank you for the kind emails from all those that persisted and backed the $5.5 equal fave winner at Darvin. We also had a late entry after WA scratchings that won at $2.6 for all those that actually run the system for themselves using Axis. It made for a very profitable day and is shaping to be another sensational month!
Currently running at 52% strike rate this month and 37% POT. No sight of the forum curse here !!!! Not yet anyway and its been nearly 2 months. We recommend that you don't wait for us to put up the selections, BUY AXIS AND RUN THE METHOD YOURSELF! Code:
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Hi Michal
Thankyou for the great information you guys have shared on this forum. I have always found it difficult betting to systems relying on SP Fav because it often isn't known until after the race jumps. Today Rocky R1 TAB#1 looked like being SP fav until TAB#3 started a $3 and won. Can you offer any help here on how to place the bet with confidence? |
Hi Rails Run,
You are right, it is not the simplest of things to get right. It is recommended that the bets are placed in the last minute especially if there are selections that are not a clear fave. You can use what ever media to determine the Fave; Sp, Betfair, one of the totes and so on, as long as you do this consistently it will even out the bumps. Many times we don't get to count the winner, even though the bet was on, due to late change in SP order, change in track condition and so on. Obviously this also happens and the horse loses but in the end consistency of application will smooth this over. Even more importantly it is imperative to give yourself a chance to get the best possible price. The last General (17/7 Darwin 4) was SP $5.5 it was also available at $6 at several bookies, $6.5 with one bookie, $7 on betfair. Spending more time on obtaining a good price is more important then worrying about possible selections that are close. Remember these selections are per-qualified in Axis and have a great chance of winning. Obviously Axis does not need to have its hand held by the market, the raw selections from this system have the ability to make profit as I illustrated in previous posts in this thread. Also other systems can be devised that can be placed on early in one lot so as to eliminate the need to sit there. The exercise here was to see if favourites can be profitable, it looks like over last 3 years and 6 months live testing (2 months here), that it is possible providing that one can identify those favourites that are deserving of that title, which we accomplish using our ratings as the main filters, there will be more on this, as we unveil even more functionality in Axis over the next few weeks. Kind regards |
Thanks Michal. Keep up the good work!
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Further to my post yesterday. One of the issues when it comes to punting is the mental capability of punters to deal with a setbacks and wins. Not handling either situation can lead to a disastrous end. That is why I said to err on the side of caution and if the horse looks like being a fave or equal fave then it is better to bet; that way you are not going to have to deal with the pain of missing a winner, which is far harder to deal with (IMO) then a loosing bet.
Our Axis software is geared to only have one Favourite; as a result we won't be claiming The Last General's win in our results, (LOL what else is new) but the money is safely in the bag. It's just one of those swings and roundabouts I was talking about. A sign of a good system is the ability to absorb some punishment, looking at selections that are equal fave is one such punishment. When I ran the equal fave scenario over all our data the POT is nearly the same, there is about 200 more selections and our strike rate drops only 0.4%. This is great news, mainly because the prices on horses in races where the market is divided are more generous and great outcomes can be achieved; $6.5 for the race favourite is luxurious. So while the sterile results of our test don't show equal fave, betting them and as such preserving ones mental calm is of no consequence in the long run and provides great opportunity for some great outcomes. That is just another reality of punting. |
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The final and ultimate filter when it comes to value being price? Applies to many other things in life I find e.g. shopping for household appliances; (1) research for the 'quality offering' online then (2) shop for best price you can find in the market = value for money. Recent experience for me indicates that when you apply the 'price lens' is one of the keys to staying in front. As someone else on here said recently.. if you are watching the movement of the odds from open before placing the bet, it may already be too late when it comes to getting the best price on your selection(s). Cheers LG |
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There have been no selections the last 2 days
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A great farewell from this extremely profitable and stable system. 3 winners from 3 bets! Can't do better then that.
I'll post the summary of the month and for our period that we have been putting these selections live here for everyone to see including the forum curse :). It will be interesting to see what the outcome is! |
Nice work Michal. 100% transparency, just as you said.
Cheers LG |
July Results
Favourites Dry results for July at NSW/Sp div - Bets 36 wins 13 SR 44.4% POT 0.42%
On the face of it it might look like the Dry Favourite system is not working, however we should remember that this month has seen many meetings postponed and run on water affected tracks. Also there has been a large number of trials canceled. All of these factors play havoc with horses preparation. Which may explain the result. Note also that there are about half the number of selections that we expected and as such the result may be just experiencing variance. If you recall we also lost a few good winners including a $5.5 win to equal favouritism and changes to track conditions. Even just today, my farewell 3 from 3 result has been reduced to 2 from 2 because of track changes :) We introduced the Wet Favourite System back in June and have been giving the selections out through out this month as well, it's only fair to include them in the result. Combined Favourite system July results - Bets 50 Wins 25 SR 50% POT 10.4% Recognising that different conditions need different tools and as such using both systems run together produced better then long-term expected results. |
End of Live testing results
This post will summarise the over all result of the whole exercise that we have run here, while in the search of the answer to the question if it is possible to make profits, long term from favourites.
The test was carried out by posting all the selections each morning prior to races with the only remaining filters to obtain the actual qualifiers being that the selection must be favourite and in the case of the 'Dry' system must be run of Good or Dead track. From our research we determined that the expected result would be a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP and about 2 bets per day as pointed out in post 5 of this thread. We opened ourselves to criticism and the forum curse to see if a well constructed system can indeed deliver long-term profits and here are the results: Code:
After 2 months of live testing we delivered and exceed what we promised and gave all those that took our selections a profit from free tips. This system has proven to be safe with the risk to bank at just 10% draw-down. I hope that we have proven that with the right horses that are favourites it is possible to make a profit. Of course it is not very inspiring to watch a system being tested with $1 level stake bets so lets have a look at some other possible and realistic alternatives. Using a $10,000 bank and better div model it becomes very evident that this is a great start toward profitable punting. Proportional Staking to take out 4% - 8% POT Profit $2,372 with 17% max bank risk Level Stake 1% of bank - 10% POT Profit $1,497 with 10% max bank risk These are very conservative betting models, based on the fact that these are favourites we can safely increase the bets and still be able to get on without effecting the price or experiencing liquidity issues. This system alone could easily help cover the monthly subscription to our Axis program and allow it's user to generate these selections for themselves together with all the other profitable systems that could be constructed and with all the benefits that Axis has to offer. If you are looking to change or simply improve your punting and are looking for the right tools then evidently Axis is the right tool; our transparent results speak loud and clear and anyone can replicate them! We want to thank all those that have supported and encouraged us along the way and look forward to the challenges of the next test. |
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Hi LG, Thanks for your comment, it means a great deal coming from you. It is the point of difference in this industry that we strive for. Integrity and transparency; we let our successful results do most of the talking and are happy to help others achieve success and share our experience with all. Michal |
Was long odds on to succeed in my opinion.
Filters within your data base would improve profits, As would taking better odds available elsewhere. Can't fault your honesty and integrity. Good luck with your product in the future. For what it's worth i would be aboard if i ever started losing. Praise from me is as scarce as hens teeth, you now have it. Cheers. Garyf. |
Hi Garyf,
Thank you, you are right, there are many strong pockets of profits withing that system which could be refined. Having smaller systems based on a solid foundation like this system would make it very possible that these would continue even though the number of bets would decline. Our intent is to show large sample system possibilities. I will be able to show a few more pricing options over the next few days as we are about to release something that will allow me to do more with our betting analyser; so it will be interesting to see where and how we can improve. I hope that that if you ever chose to utilise our services it won't be because you are loosing! I appreciate your kind comments, we post and show and try to educate punters. We realise that we don't know everything and we also know that many that post here are successful within their own right. Our intention is not to 'turn' people from their methods or tools but rather to just show who we are, what we do and what Ratings2win stands for and then let people decide if they can benefit form our products. |
August Monthly Update
Here is the results of our Favourite System over the month of August.
Bets 52 Wins 24 Strike rate 46.2% POT 6.44% Another solid month at about the expected figures based on the long-term average. Remember this is a mechanical system created in our R2W Axis program. What is especially good to see, is the performance is maintained long-term over 3+ years and over 3000 bets. |
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Hi LG Place strike rate over the 3,000+ bets is 76.2% and over August 2013 68%. |
End of Month Summary
September results
115 selections 50 wins for 0.09% POT; a break even result at our NSW/SP. It seams to be that kind of month, a first in 6 months where we didn't make a profit, but no damage done and we look forward to another profitable month in October. If you take out the wet tracks, which may be a reasonable thing to do since the 'wet season' is over then the normal 'DRY' system makes just under 1% POT profit. |
End of Month Results
Hi All,
Not sure what button I pressed, but the results in the previous post are not from the September favourite system. Having just come back from a months leave of doing the files I am a bit rusty :) September Favourite System Selections 59 wins 26, SR 44.1%, POT 1.25% A little better! At fixed prices (available at jump) this climbs to 2.98% POT At best of best (in our pricing categories) this climbs to 5.53% POT All the best Michal |
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