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-   -   Highest Strike Rate Betting System I Know... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31091)

UselessBettor 29th June 2016 05:15 PM

Anyone who has a database of results already knows the rules proposed are going to lose long term.

darkydog2002 29th June 2016 05:47 PM

Wish I had those clairvoiant powers.
Cheers.

UselessBettor 30th June 2016 05:30 PM

History repeats itself. Short odds favs are over bet historically. Going forward short priced favs will be over bet again.

This whole system is flawed as it doesn't take into account anything which

1) gives you value
2) no (positive) backtest results have been posted
3) is a prime candidate for long term losing based on biases in the market.

I can tell you right now based on my own backtest results you are going to lose between 8% and 11% long term.

darkydog2002 30th June 2016 07:03 PM

With all fairness to Neil he did only use it on Metropolitan Meetings.

For me Price indicates chance so I will continue to use it on a daily basis.

What others do of course is up to each individual.

Cheers.

aferw 2nd July 2016 07:45 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Thanks for the reply Aferw.
I hesitate to put any filters in myself as obviously they have been put through the mill hence the price.



Hi D'dog,
my only filer when put into states is prices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Anyone who has a database of results already knows the rules proposed are going to lose long term.


Only been going since 19th'3 U'better so not enough to go on as yet. But the ppost prices I have are going to be different to everyone elses.

Will continue for a bit longer.

2nd'7
caulfield 2 3 longeron
rosehill 1 1 foxplay
morphet 6 4 ma jones

UselessBettor 2nd July 2016 04:26 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
Only been going since 19th'3 U'better so not enough to go on as yet. But the ppost prices I have are going to be different to everyone elses.


Almost every serious systems bettor will have a database whether they put it together themselves or bought it. All of these will have a x (or multiple) prepost prices.

I can tell you long term its a losing set of rules based on my database going back years. Hence I wouldn't bother putting any real money on it. Follow it for fun, or when you want a bet and your at the track.

aferw 6th July 2016 08:14 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
2nd'7
caulfield 2 3 longeron 1st 4.60-1.70
rosehill 1 1 foxplay 2nd 1.10
morphet 6 4 ma jones

Nice return

Tipsy 6th July 2016 11:20 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002

But if I did it would be based around Form/ beaten lengths /weight (55kg + represent 36.5 % of horses but win 50.6 % of races )A massive advantage.



Those stats quoted are nonsense. You need look no further than a form guide.

aferw 8th July 2016 08:35 PM

9th
morphet 1 2 showpero
fleming 2 1 euro angel
doomben 2 3 upstart pride

aferw 16th July 2016 08:20 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
9th
morphet 1 2 showpero 1st 2.60-1.40
fleming 2 1 euro angel 2nd 1.20
doomben 2 3 upstart pride 2nd 1.60

16th
caulfield 7 3 duke of brunswick
e.farm 1 2 guard of honour

Vortech 18th July 2016 02:29 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tipsy
Those stats quoted are nonsense. You need look no further than a form guide.


Totally agree Tipsy.

darkydog2002 18th July 2016 01:53 PM

The Stats.
Ignore at your own peril I say.

aferw 23rd July 2016 07:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
16th
caulfield 7 3 duke of brunswick 2nd 1.30
e.farm 1 2 guard of honour scr

23rd
doomben 1 1 royal tithe
flemington 6 2 voodoo lad

Vortech 23rd July 2016 08:29 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
The Stats.
Ignore at your own peril I say.


Stats are only relevant against avg. price

The stats you mentioned were tested on another forum and the loss on turnover was no different to backing horses under 55kg. The difference was the higher strike rate for horses 55kg plus but lower avg dividend.

Still producing the same Loss.

darkydog2002 23rd July 2016 11:56 AM

Hardly.

The Race Clubs Official Handicappers have declared these horses the Class horses of the the particular race.

As you are a Lay bettor I can see why you might make money betting Under these Weights.

But for the Win Bettor like me I prefer a Class horse, well weighted to win.

Cheers.

darkydog2002 23rd July 2016 12:06 PM

Just curious but what was that other forum.
Have you a link?

Vortech 23rd July 2016 02:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Just curious but what was that other forum.
Have you a link?


Its against Terms to provide. Do you know the Loss on Turnover?

Vortech 23rd July 2016 02:52 PM

Off to shout friends at pub. picked up first 4 at townsville 3. 1st n 2nd both great runs under 55kg. Good luck all

aferw 30th July 2016 07:53 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
23rd
doomben 1 1 royal tithe 1st 3.30-1.60
flemington 6 2 voodoo lad 3rd 1.40

30th
caulfield 1 2 turbo street
morphet 1 1 subiaso

aferw 6th August 2016 06:46 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
30th
caulfield 1 2 turbo street
morphet 1 1 subiaso


Last week had 2 in the 1 race at e.farm with the last start a winner Rednav paying $4.30

6th'8
e.farm 2 1 akavoroun
randwick 5 7 capitalist

aferw 13th August 2016 09:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
Last week had 2 in the 1 race at e.farm with the last start a winner Rednav paying $4.30

6th'8
e.farm 2 1 akavoroun
randwick 5 7 capitalist scr

13th'8
rosehill 5 1 capitalist
morphet 5 2 allez tara

aferw 20th August 2016 09:15 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
13th'8
rosehill 5 1 capitalist
morphet 5 2 allez tara 1st 2.00-1.20

20th
randwick 7 6 winx
belmont 2 3 sweet ora
m.valley 7 9 pilote d'essai

aferw 27th August 2016 08:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
20th
randwick 7 6 winx 1st 1.20-1.20
belmont 2 3 sweet ora 1st 1.70-1.10
m.valley 7 9 pilote d'essai 2nd 1.30

27th
belmont 4 2 first among equals

Sands 27th August 2016 11:57 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
27th
belmont 4 2 first among equals

Thought Red Ora a top chance, same race
But unfortunately meeting washed out

aferw 27th August 2016 12:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
Thought Red Ora a top chance, same race
But unfortunately meeting washed out

Am about to somewhat give up on this..lol. Only 2.40+ in front, and after a filter by $, bit better. Passed on Sr2-3 extensible & Mr2-1 honey steels gold, was left with Br3-5 now scr, & now belmont.

Sands 27th August 2016 12:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aferw
Am about to somewhat give up on this..lol. Only 2.40+ in front, and after a filter by $, bit better. Passed on Sr2-3 extensible & Mr2-1 honey steels gold, was left with Br3-5 now scr, & now belmont.

Honey Steel's Gold did the right thing ;)

darkydog2002 27th August 2016 05:01 PM

Wise move aferw.
Cheers.

aferw 3rd September 2016 11:40 AM

3rd'9
e.farm 5 7 the virginian
morphet 1 2 allez tara

see how go today, barely in front now, while the courier mail. very much behind. Both Victoria & Adelaide are the 2 venues doing well.
Perth also watching,

grizzle 19th March 2017 11:11 AM

11 mar

rose r6 foxplay 1st
flem r5 i am a star 1st
doom r3 pinch river 1st
ascot r4 three votes 1st
morph r2 mile high 2nd

18 mar

rose r5 winx 1st
flem r5 tosen stardom 2nd
goldc r1 miss exfactor 1st
ascot r6 galaxy star 1st r7 seannie 3rd
morph r2 pujols 2nd

Sands 21st March 2017 01:16 AM

Did well

Sands 9th June 2017 10:08 PM

Sat 10/6

Belmont R1 Art Series
Doomben R6 Melody Belle
Flemington R3 Santa Ana Lane
Morphettville R7 Counter Pulse
Randwick R4 Broadside

theshoe 5th November 2017 09:20 AM

4 Nov

Rosehill:
Neutrality 1st. Black On Gold 1st.

Flemington:
Harlem 6th.

Doomben:
Ef Troop 1st. Chamalu 4th.

Ascot:
La Mouline 1st.

Morphettville:
Hussbay 1st.

theshoe 18th November 2017 06:20 AM

11 Nov

Rosehill:
Bon Amis 1st.

Flemington:
Fastnet Tempest 1st.

Doomben:
Miss Exfactor 2nd.

Ascot:
Scales Of Justice 3rd.

Morphettville:
Set To Sparkle 2nd.

theshoe 25th November 2017 10:31 AM

18 Nov

Rosehill:
Interlocuter 1st.

Sandown:
Gallic Chieftain 3rd.

Doomben:
Bring It Home Pop 1st.

Ascot:
State Solicitor 1st.

Morphettville:
Raahee 2nd.

Stix 8th December 2017 10:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Will be interesting as i am running a test using R&S prices for the week.

I've found those with a Pace of L P or OP are the ones to concentrate on when using R&S form, good luck Shaun

theshoe 17th December 2017 09:23 PM

25 Nov

Rosehill:
Plague Stone 2nd.

Ballarat:
Divine Quality 2nd.

Doomben:
Blue Book 1st.

Ascot:
Rhi’s Rocket 7th.

Morphettville:
Shrouded In Mist 2nd.

theshoe 24th December 2017 06:29 AM

16 Dec

Randwick:
Broadside 2nd.

Caulfield:
Vinland 4th.

Doomben:
Long Time Ago 3rd.

Ascot:
Illustrious Tycoon 1st.

Morphettville:
Indian Thunder 1st. Via Balciano 3rd.

theshoe 21st January 2018 11:49 PM

13 Jan

Randwick:
Sugar Bella 1st.

Flemington:
Nasaayim 2nd.

Gold Coast:
Sedanzer 2nd. Viddora 1st.

Ascot:
Street Fury 1st. Caipirinha 1st.

Gawler:
Go The Journey 1st.

theshoe 4th February 2018 04:46 AM

3 Feb

Rosehill:
Performer 1st.

Caulfield:
Snitty Kitty 2nd.

Doomben:
Boomwaa 2nd.

Ascot:
Action 3rd.

Morphettville:
Belfast 2nd.

Lord Greystoke 4th February 2018 12:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
What is the strike rate ?

I hope its close to 90% or higher.


Interesting proposition for the place I'm thinking UB. Thoughts?

Cheers LG


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