west brom 3.15 is a good bet

what do you mean Sheringham is out?? He's returning today. :smile:

that he may be but what I put there I got from gooners forum ...Just lettin you know what i found ....

aah I see. I've just read it there.

but on espnsoccernet.com it said Teddy would play. oh well, either way they should win and if they don't.. :mad: I'm f***ed.

Sorry Ill make it more distinctive time ..my blue Anyway I hope well be singing eachothers praises by monday morning otherwise well both be forked

Yeah Farout I had a nibble at em (West Brom) but I took the (asian handicap 0) or (Draw no bet option) for 2.16 or thereabouts

sounds like a safe bet on WB to me.

Today...

Middlesbrough
Stuttgart
Southampton to DRAW
Messina

TENNIS - Sharapova-Safin

MY BETS--The ones down the bottom are (below the line)are winners or losers the ones here are still alive
Arsenal (Draw no bet).......2.06*********
Arsenal (HT)..............3.55*
Arsenal/Arsenal(HT/FT)......5.40*
Man Utd/Arsenal(HT/FT)...34.00
Man Utd/Arsenal(OVER2.5).. 2.18*
Arsenal/Everton..........6.60*
Bologna...................3.15*
Lazio.....................3.25*
Juventus/Lazio............4.90
Inter/Lazio...............8.20
Zaragoz(Draw no bet)......2.00*
Barc/Real Mad.............2.52*
AND Ill be having an all up
Juv/Bol/******** at current prices apr 15.00
*=$10 bet the rest are $6
---------------------------------------------
LPool/EVerton............3.95*won
Chelsea/Everton...........3.25*won
Chels/Ever/Lpool..........5.00*won
Bolton/Liverpool..........5.70 won
Juventus..................1.66**won
Juventus (over2.5)........2.40*won
DePortivo(Draw no bet)....2.06*SQUARE
RealM/Valenc (Over 2.5)...2.18*lost
WBromwich(Draw no bet)....2.18*lost
Liverpool (lay 100/16)....1.16 Lost(16)










[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-24 14:42 ]

just took this multi

MIDDLESBROUGH 1.57
NEWCASTLE 1.68
SOUTHAMPTH -0.5 2.65
CHIEVO 1.72
SAMPDORIA 1.65
BARCELONA 1.37
M/UNITED 2.65

3@72.01=216.03 I WILL BE HAPPY IF I GET THIS UP TONIGHT

CLEVELAND -7.5 against PHILADLEPHIA

should that be +7.5??
I don't mind that bet but mine for the night is
Atlanta +3.5 v Kansas City

I'm having a bit of trouble giving my tips out before the game, as it has only brought me bad luck in the past. This is the 1st one I've posted here. Just felt like I should contribute, rather than just comment on others selections.

I also like Boston/St Louis -10.5 runs. The over 10.5 will be fav after todays 20 run game but with Curt Shilling on the mound (best big game pitcher in the MLB)I think this is a better bet.

I backed Boston in Game 1 at -1.5 runs @ $2.45, wasn't happy when Ramirez (can bat, can't field) committed 2 errors in row to level the scores in the 8th but Bellhorn's 2 run shot clinched the deal.

Bellhorns beeen having a bit of a party post season.... will schillings ankle hold out ...I dont bet on MLB but I have been watching it

Well I wasn't close with Atlanta in the NFL, a few upsets this morning. Good get with Cleveland Mr K.

But Boston came through for me, I backed them to win and under 10.5 runs.

Another 5 star performance from Shilling, didn't give up any earned runs, lucky Boston can hit because they can't field (8 errors in the first 2 games).

NIEMINEN to beat GAMBILL at $1.55.

you still goin mr k you're relentless

I didnt watch the nfl but i happened to flick it on at one stage and thought to myself maybe he put the decimal point in the wrong spot .....it was 35- something at that point

I know 56-10, hell even +35 wouldn't have got close.

from 13 games this morning, more favourites got beaten that won. Even my winless Dolphins won a game.

Oh well, At least I got 1 right and as my stake increases after a loss the wins on Boston more than made up for Atlanta's poor showing.

when I said -7.5 for Cleveland I meant +7.5.

edit: Andrei Pavel to beat Calleri at $1.65.

I should really restart this winning streak as it's got out of hand. I stopped keeping track and now it's turned into a tipping thread more or less. should I start a new one?

[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-25 21:41 ]

Yep why not the papers free

Sure. Just keep track of all your tips in excel or something. That way you have an idea how you are doing overall.

My P/L for the last 3 months
Golf: +AUD11.65
Horse Racing: +AUD14.67
Rugby League: -AUD0.04
Soccer: -AUD19.96
Total P&L: +AUD6.32

Well, it's taken 7 weeks, but that NFL Homedog system I mentioned a while back has finally had it's first selections for the season.

Arizona (+6.5) WON
Cleveland (+7.5) WON
Miami (+6.5) WON

One more for this round - Cincinatti (+6.5). Let's see how they go. I'm not a huge NFL fan, so at the moment I'm using this idea just for fun, but the record over the last 2 1/3 seasons stands at 26 wins from 31 bets, so who knows???

SO how does the system go Sportz
Home team with the start when they get the start? Is that it

Only when the start is 6.5 or 7.5 points.

Too easy Sportz.... What price did you get for that.....Theyre declaring it a major upset ....obviously thyre not getting the right info hahahaha

There was a bit of a plunge on Denver, and Cinicinatti (+6.5) got out to $2.10!!! :grin:

That makes 27 from 32. Could be onto something here, but it's very selective so you need a lot of patience. No bets for the first 6 rounds and now 4 from 4 in one week!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 15:11 ]

Sportz what filters are you using? BTW, small and large home dogs have shown to be profitable longterm, middle sized home dogs have lost longterm.

You might wanna buy those +6.5s into +7.5 (providing it costs you 20 cents or less). Buying & selling to key numbers can be advantageous in the NFL.

BTW arizona and cleveland +7 were available. Shopping can make a pretty big difference in NFL.

Ok, forget the Q about the conditions, home dogs lined at +6.5 or +7.5.

It might interest you to know that home dogs lined at:

+7.5 is 9-17
+7 is 32-37
+6.5 is 33-34

This is from years 1985 to 2000.
Results from 2000-2003:
+7.5 is 11-6
+7 is 12-5
+6.5 is 13-9

So the trend has turned around in recent years, although I wouldn't want to rely on that for my bets.

One trend I'd trust is backing home dogs lined at +8 and higher.
From 1985 to 1999 they are 86-60
From 2000-2003 are 18-9.

Dogs lined from EV to +3 have also performed very well historically.

Perhaps I've just been lucky then. All I've done for the last 2 and a bit years is simply look at the lines on Tab Sportsbet and when the home team is given a start of 6.5 or 7.5, I back them. Like I said, I've only been doing it for a bit of an interest. I don't expect this strike rate to continue but I'm well ahead so far. :smile:

By the way, I've also been watching home dogs with starts longer than 7.5, but over the last couple of years I didn't think they'd done as well as your figures suggest.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 18:02 ]

Those figures are from the standard vegas/offshore line. TAB won't be nearly as efficient (slow to move lines etc).

Those results for the +6.5 and +7 don't include point buying (buy to +7.5).

I'll check out the TAB prices this week and see what they're like.

BTW, longer lined underdogs have done that well :wink:

Well their closing lines were all within half a point of the standard offshore line. Looks like they were generally shading the favourites a little.

Mr J,

After what you said, I thought I'd probably done way better than I could have expected out of this idea, so I decided to stop betting on them and just watch them for a while. Since that time 3 straight losers. Can you say again what you think would be the best way to go long term backing homedogs in the NFL? I don't want to back all of them, because I don't want a lot of bets. Do you suggest backing those given starts of 8 points and more??? Your figures show a 60% strike rate over 18 years.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-24 10:41 ]