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Update
Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 20 At Flat Stakes: Bet 69; Won 10.60; ROI 15.3% A terrible evening going 0-3 - my worst for the year. I could write a post-mortem but there isn't much point. I still believe the players were solid selections based on the data but days like this come with the territory so onward and upward. The change in surfaces isn't usually this problematic but I'd urge caution with stakes during this changeover period. Pascual v Stosur Round 1 Charlston Stosur is an ordinary clay-courter with a 19/20 career record. Easily beaten by Peer at Amelia Island. Had very poor clay swing for past 2 seasons and doesn't have any big results outside of australia. Ruano-Pascual beat good clay-courter Sprem in Amelia Island and lost a tight 3 setter to imroving Domachowska. A clay court specialist with a 83/72 career record. Pascual $1.65 Srebotnik v Pratt Round 1 Charlston A similar story to the above. Pratt is an ordinary clay courter with a 30/38 career record. She's having an ordinary season and only made the tournament as a wildcard. Easily beaten by Chladkova last week who's a similar player to Srebotnik. Srebotnik has a 57/44 career record and has had one of the best starts to a season in her career. Playing well though easily beaten by classy Dulko at Amelia Island. Pratt is nowhere near the same class and meets Srebotnik on her favourite surface. Srebotnik $1.45 |
Update
Bets 71; Won 50; Lost 21 At Flat Stakes: Bet 71; Won 10.05; ROI 14.2% (NB: Made a typo yesterday on number of bets in update but self explanatory) I defy anyone to make sense of this week. Flat betting on the underdogs would have produced a huge windfall over the past few days given the number of upsets. Bit short on time so abbreviated write-ups again. Molik has withdrawn and is replaced by LL Perebiynis Srebotnik v Perebiynis Charlston Round 2 Following on from yesterday's write-up, Srebotnik will be too strong for lucky loser Perebiynis. Perebiynis is having a miserable season and was beaten in qualifying by lowly ranked Pelletier and thumped last week in the first round of Amelia Island by Castano. She's an average clay-courter who has better results on hard courts. Srebotnik $1.40 @ 5Dimes Koukalova v Stosur Charlston Round 2 Opposing Stosur for the same reasosn I posted yesterday. I was very surprised by her win over Pascual because I've seen Stosur play on clay and she's rather ordinary. Her career record is now 20/20. Koukalova's career is 58/42 and she has s few wins over quality players on the surface. Don't quite understand the prices. Koukalova $1.83 @ 5Dimes (available 1.90 at smaller bookies) Asagoe v Shaughnessy Charlston Round 2 Asagoe is in fine form at the moment and seems to be handling the conditions well. Wins over Myskinsa, Raymond and a close loss to Petrova at Amelia Island hold her in excellent stead. Also a good first round win here. A few question marks over Shaughnessy's fitness (withdrew last week with back injury) and she hasn't really done much on the dirt since the swing started. Beat Daniilidou but it may surprise some people that she has a very average clay record. Should be close but I like the price Asagoe $1.75 @ 5Dimes |
Update
Bets 73; Won 52; Lost 21 At Flat Stakes: Bet 73 units; Won 11.28 units; ROI 15.4% Better result last night with 2 wins and one void due to Shaughnessy's withdrawal before play. A tough round tonight during a tough week - not much appeals. Vaidisova v Asagoe. QF Charleston Vaidisaova continues to defy opinion that her lack of clay experience - 8 WTA games thus far - would soften her meteoric rise in the rankings. However Asagoe is also rather inexperienced on the dirt with a 16/17 career record. This will be a close game, a point reinforced by their results against the classy Myskina in the past week. Asagoe squeaked home 7:6 7:6 on Amelia Island's green clay while Vaidisova won in a hard fought 3 sets yesterday. Both have also played well in the early rounds although Asagoe had the benefit of a walkover in Round 2. They've also met once before on red clay in Acapulco 2004 with Vaidisova winning in straight sets. A close game but my program rates Vaidisova a 57.8% chance of winning. Vaidisova $1.80 @ StanJames |
Update
Bets 74; Won 53; Lost 21 At Flat Stakes: Bet 74 units; Won 11.98 units; ROI 16.2% Vaidisova did just enough to get passed Asagoe so a good result in the end. Her price shortened rather quickly so I'll record $1.70 to make the potential return a better reflection of prices. Some interesting match-ups tonight - but bookies very slow to price up. Schnyder v Vaidisova Charleston Both players are in top form at the moment but at this stage of the tournament I have to go for experience. Schnyder reached the semi-finals here last year and is therefore defending a lot of ranking points. Her performances this week suggest she is very focused which is rather comforting as she can be a bit erratic at times. Let's hope positive Patty turns out tonight. Overall Schnyder's an excellent clay-courter with a 118/71 career record who is coming off two convincing straight-set wins this week. Vaidisova, while very inexperienced in these conditions, has performed admirably this week. However some of her frailties were on display yesterday against Asagoe - including a large unforced error count and drop-off in concentration. Schydner has far more 'weapons'than Asagoe so a similar effort to yesterday could spell trouble for Vaidisova. My program rates Schydner a 66.5% chance of winning. Schydner $1.60 @ Sportstab (there could be better prices by a few cents later). |
Update
Bets 75; Won 54; Lost 21 At Flat Stakes: Bet 75 units; Won 12.58 units; ROI 16.8% Schydner certainly proved her value on clay by easily disposing of Vaidisova. HeninHardenne could be a good bet tonight depending on her price. Bookies have been slow to price up this week - perhaps more interested in ATP Monaco - but WTA prices should be out by 6.00 AEST. |
Has "Allez Justine " been recovering from the injury that put her out of one of the majors last year ..I havent seen hide nor hair of her then again as I said Im not up to speed on all these tour tounaments....I love her shes a little tiger
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Hi Floydy - Justine's about 8 games back form her injury troubles. She was struck down with a virus last year and took rest of the season off after the US Open. Then, prior to her return in January, she did her knee and finally made her comeback in Miami last month. She's a champion - if sometimes a little unsporting - and should have too much for Golovin. Just a matter of price.
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Thanks for that Marco
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Henin-Hardenne v Golovin
Semi Final - Charleston Golovin's surprised me this week as I thought she'd lose her last two games. She played well against Venus Williams but Venus's astronomical unforced error count certainly helped Glovin's cause. I also think today will be a lot harder - Henin-Hardenne just doesn't quit and while she's clearly on the comeback trail, her clay skills and killer backhand have barely diminished. Sure, she's not at her peak and has dropped a few sets this week but I still think she'll do the job against her much younger and more inexperienced rival. My program rates Henin a 70% chance of winning and while her price is right on the value line, I'll take the odds. Henin $1.44 @ StanJames. I'm also tipping Schydner to beat Dementieva but she's just a tad short in the bookies' prices. May be worth a look at Betfair. |
I think Ill sit this one out Ive backed her at that price before probably feb or march last year had acouple of hundred on her cant even remember who she played but she was at the top of her game and it seemed like good value at the time ...she got the bikkies in 2 sets no probs ...but that first sentence in your thread and the fact thats shes on the comeback trail coupled with my self imposed temporary exile from sizeable bets will make me a watcher on this one....but good luck I hope she kicks ********
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Update
Bets 76; Won 55; Lost 21 At Flat Stakes: Bet 76 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 17.1% Nice work Justine - and she's a real chance for the final as well. Looks like she's playing Dementieva so it's down to price again. Lets hope the bookies post a bit earlier today. |
No WTA Tournaments this week as the Fed Cup kicks off this weekend (25-26 Apr). There's usually a couple of betting opportunities though many of the ties are very one-sided (eg: Germany v Indonesia). Bookies are traditionally a bit slow to price the event but there could be some good odds about the Russia v Italy, Czech Rep. v Japan and Spain v Argentina ties.
www.fedcup.com I'll post Fed Cup bet once prices are up. Normal tournament schedule restarts next Monday. |
The good news is that after a week off, the WTA returns with two tournaments - Estoril where we join the men's tour and the J & S Cup in Warsaw. Both tourneys are on red clay and have assembled reasonable fields though this week is generally considered a warm-up for the short but intense majors on the clay swing (Berlin, Rome, & Roland Garros).
Monday is traditionally quiet with very few games scheduled as this allows players to return from Fed Cup matches held over the weekend. The final rounds of qualies are played along with a couple of first round matches (nothing of interest today). I'll therefore kick off the betting and analysis tomorrow. These tournaments start around 5pm AEST so I'll post as soon as the bookies publish their lines (hopefully late tonight or early morning). The Fed Cup didn't attract much interest from the bookies or the punting public so there wasn't much to post. |
A rather chaotic start to the week. There's been 5 late withdrawals across both tournaments so the draws are a mess. Bookies have yet to reframe their markets are are currently listing matches that aren't being played.
The withdrawals affected both my planned bets. There's still plenty of time before the games start (7-8 hours) so I'll post as soon as the markets/matches are reframed. |
Estoril & Warsaw
Red Clay http://www.jandscup.pl/ http://www.estorilopen.net/ Apologies for the late post. There were quite a few late withdrawals today - see previous post - and the bookies are taking forever to reframe their markets. Interestingly, several bookies are still taking bets on games declared void through withdrawal more than 12 hours ago. I'm waiting on a few more prices so may paste extra bets. Still quite a few hours until these games start. I've picked a few genuine outsiders today as upsets are quite common early in the clay swing. Cervanova v Parra-Sontanja Round 1: Estoril Both players prefer clay and both are competent on the surface. Cervanova's career clay record is 98/70 while Parra-Sontanja's is 59/36. Cervanova has had the better preparation as she played in the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago where she reached the QF's (losing in a close 3 setter). Moreover, these two players met on Acupulco's red clay in early March where Cervanova was the easy winner in 6:2 6:3. Parra-Sontanja hasn't played since Miami 3 weeks ago so may be a little rusty for this encounter. I rate Cervanova a 64.1% chance of winning - she's been a solid improver over the past few months Cervanova $1.65 ($1.65 available at smaller bookies - the larger books may have better prices but they're yet to post lines). Cohen-Aloro v Na Li Round 1: Estoril Cohen-Aloro is a clay-court specialist with a competent 39/36 career record. She seems to enjoy this tournament making the SF's here last year and the QF's in 2003. Her opponent today Na Li is a great prospect on hardcourts but has only played 7 games on clay. Five of these were in the 2004 WulanHaoate Challenger which she won - but the tournament is mainly an all-Chinese affair with an extremely poor field (rated C25 which is 3 tiers below today's event). This game could be relatively close because Na Li is one of those girls who never gives up but she hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though she played Fed Cup) and is another player who is first-up on her least favourite surface. Of course Na Li can win but the prices are simply based on her overall WTA rating which does not adjust for the surface. She's seeded fourth for the tourney despite playing only 7 games on clay over several years. Note that Li had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday where the matches were on hardcourt, so it will certainly take some adjustment. Cohen-Aloro $2.60 @ 5Dimes Ondraskova v Douchevina Round 1: Warsaw Backing another outsider here but not without reason. Ondraskova isn't as well known as Douchevina but is still an experienced clay-court specialist with a 66/38 record. She's just played in the Dinan clay Challenger where she reached the final. Though losing, she beat 3 handy clay-courters on the way including Cervanova, Savchuk and Kloesel. While most of her wins have been on the Challenger circuit, she's had the benefit of 3 qualification games which she won easily in straight sets. Douchevina has some form on clay but most of this is also on the Challenger circuit and she rates hard courts as her favourite surface. She lost in the first round of Amelia Island 2 weeks ago which was her most recent game so she's first up on red clay. I rate these two very closely and Ondraskova will have to play very well but she's a genuine chance. Ondraskova $2.70 @ Centrebet (there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins) Nagyova v Zheng Round 1: Estoril A very similar analysis to the game above. Zheng is a hradcourt player with a limited clay-court game. Her career record stands at 29/22, most of which was earned on the Challenger circuit. She hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though played Fed Cup) and is first-up on her least favourite/successful surface. Nagyova is another clay-court specialist with a lot of experience and a 121/72 career record. To be fair, she hasn't achieved much in the last year or so but she did play in the recent Dinan clay challenger where she reached the QFs. She's also had two solid qualification games which she won is straight sets (albeit against low ranked opponents). However she's had the better preparation and has the edge in experience. Note that Zheng also had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday. I rate these two very closely but Nagoya is a slight favourite in my book. Nagyova $2.35 @ Centrebet (there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins) NOTES: Farina Elia has been troubled by a shoulder injury and while the highest ranked player on the Italian Fed Cup team, she didn't make the court. Similarly, Flavia Pennetta has been troubled by a foot injury and like Farina-Elia, didn't play in the Fed Cup tie despite being the second ranked Italian player. |
Extra Bet
Bookies slowly pricing up so an extra bet. Still a few hours till they start.
Schiavone v Vento-Kabchi Round 1: Warsaw Short odds on Schiavone but she's a specialist clay-courter coming up against Vento-Kabchi who has a 25/43 record on the surface. Schiavone is also coming of Italy's Fed Cup tie on red clay where she beat Safina - who has an excellent clay record - but lost to the classy Dementieva in 3 sets. In contrast, Vento-Kabchi is coming off a first round loss to the mediocre Sucha at Amelia Island 2 weeks ago - hardly the ideal preparation. Schiavone was a semi-finalist here last year so is defending plenty of points and should be focused. I rate her a 82% chance of winning so she's right on the value line but I'll take the bet. Schiavone $1.22 @ Centrebet. (may get a better price by a few cents as better bookies price up. Centrebet has lousy margins). |
Update
Bets 80; Won 57; Lost 23 At Flat Stakes: Bet 80 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 16.3% Well the Chinese players certainly proved me wrong yesterday. Mind you, I wouldn't be backing them at short odds in Round 2 today as Li and Zheng did little to impress. So plenty of upsets yesterday but not quite where we wanted them. A break-even day though with 2 wins, 2 losses and a void bet through a first set withdrawal. Not many games scheduled today. Bovina v Hantuchova. Round 2: Warsaw Bovina's coming from Fed Cup play with Russia (on red clay) while Hantuchova progessed by doing just enough to beat the lowly-rated Kosinska. Bovina is the better clay player and always seems to play well at this time of year. She's a past winner of this tournament in 2002 and has previously made the SF and QF at Estoril which is also on at this time of year. Bovina lists hard as her favourite surface - as does Hantuchova - but Bovina's 33/17 career clay record includes wins over a better class of player. Hantuchova's record stands at 33/27 and while she had a stellar clay season in 2002, she's acheived little since. Should be relatively close as both are having reasonable seasons. My program rates the match a 59-41% proposition Bovina $1.78 @ Pinnacle. Randriantefy v Sanchezlorenzo Round 2: Estoril Both players are competent clay-courters but Randriantefy definitely has the edge. Her 112/58 clay career record is far superior in the quality of opponents played and beaten than Sanchez-Lorenzo's 93/80 record. Randriantefy is coming off an easy first round win against the lowly ranked local wildcard Neuza, while Sanchez-Lorenzo beat the big serving hardcourter Osterloh. Sanchez-Lorenzo was lucky to get back into the game after losing the first set 0:6. Randriantefy is also having a better season and performed well on Acupulco's red clay earlier this year. This price is right on the value line but I think the Madagascan will be too good. Randriantefy $1.45 @ Pinnacle. |
Update
Bets 82; Won 59; Lost 23 At Flat Stakes: Bet 82 units; Won 14.18 units; ROI 17.3% A better evening with two hard-fought wins. There's quite a few early lines up (for a change) so it's possible to post earlier than normal. Bovina's price shortened quite quickly yesterday so I'll put $1.71 in the record (as opposed to the early $1.78) to better reflect potential returns. Cervanova v Craybas Round 2: Estoril I wrote about Cervanova on Tuesday so I won't repeat myself. Her relatively easy win over Parra-Sontanja bodes well for today because Parra-Sontanja is a far better clay player than Craybas. The American, in short, has a woeful 23/35 career clay record and has beaten few quality players on the surface. She beat 'no-name' Mihalache in the first round but no real surprises there as her opponent was a lowly-ranked Challenger player. Today will be a far tougher proposition as Craybas performed very poorly at Charleston and Amelia Island (green clay). Moreover, she failed to win a single WTA game on clay last season at 5 attempts. Of course upsets are always possible but I would be surprised - no shocked - if Craybas won today. Cervanova $1.45 @ 5Dimes (available at $1.50 at smaller books but these prices should come in) Schydner v Vakulenko Ronud 2: Warsaw Schynder is at short odds today but not without reason. She has a solid 119/72 clay record which includes many wins over quality players and is coming off a solid performance at Charleston where she reached the semi-finals. Her opponent Vakualenko has done well to reach the second round. She beat the coming-back-from-injury Daniilidou in qualifying but despite what many people think, Daniilidou has a rather ordinary clay record. Vakulenko then went on to beat Chladkova and Chakvetadze but neither of these players are anywhere Schydner's class. That said, Vakualenko has the benefit of playing in the conditions while Schydner is first-up but I don't think this is an issue for someone of Patty's experience. One has to remember that Vakulenko is ranked 260 and has few, if any, big scalps to her name on the dirt. This is also only her second tournament for 2005 so she may by a little underdone. Schydner $1.25 generally available. (early line but prices should hold) |
Time to eat a very large slice of humble pie.
First Li and Zheng make a goose of me and now, of all people, Jill Craybas. What more can I say . . . I'm still in shock . . . not only of the loss but also the scoreline! Here's hoping Schynder can salvage some of my pride. |
Update
Bets 84; Won 60; Lost 24 At Flat Stakes: Bet 84 units; Won 13.43 units; ROI 16% One win and one loss for the evening. In a bit af a flat spot over the past few weeks but still a break even proposition. Ivanovic v Dechy QF: Warsaw Ivanovic is a real media 'queen' at the moment and has generated a lot of attention. She's been in outstanding form over the past few days though she isn't the most experienced player on clay at the WTA level. Her double-bageling of Sucha in the first round was clinical and she made the classy though out-of-form Zvonereva look ordinary. Dechy is competent on the dirt but is in a bit of a form slump. Her recent Fed Cup form on red clay was ordinary to say the least. Dechy beat Domachowska yesterday but this was mainly due to her opponents large number of unforced errors. Today's game could be relatively close with the QF pressure but Ivanovic has the momentum. Ivanovic $1.50 generally available. NOTE: The Warsaw games are being streamed on the internet. The quality's good with a broadband connection. See: http://www.itvp.pl/i.tvp/jands On the right side of the page click " Zobacz transmisje". |
Totally agree with you on Ivanovic. Saw some of her matches late last year and she looked very impressive.
Thanks for the link to the live TV coverage. I wish I had of known about that earlier in the week, watching a live scoreboard update can be quite agonising. Cheers, Mark |
Gald to hear we're on the same side Sparks - always nice to have a bit of solidarity.
If Ivanovic wins the profit should just about cover the cost of my therapy sessions after Craybas @#!*ed me. |
I think every man and their dog was on Cervanova yesterday, somehow I think Craybas will get her just desserts from Safina tonight though.
Anyways, let's go Ivanovic. Looking forward to watching the match :) |
Update
Bets 85; Won 61; Lost 24 At Flat Stakes: Bet 85 units; Won 13.87 units; ROI 16.3% Greatful for the win last night but Ivanovic will find it much harder today. Her price came in a bit so, to make it fairer, I'll reduce it to $1.45 in the record. I have to use early lines as I won't have time to post later today. Prices may shift so I'll adjust during update if needed. Dulko v Safarova SF: Estoril Experience vs inexperience a big factor here. Dulko not only has a better clay record but also has made many more final appearances than her opponent today. Safarova, who has only played 18 rated clay games, has performed extremely well to get this far in the tournament. However she has yet to meet any one in Dulko's class and will find it a lot harder today. Moreover, most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit. Dulko's running hot this week having had 3 good wins agianst Bondarenko,Zheng and Foretz. While none of these players are superstars, they're ceratinly in the same class, if not better, than 18-year-old Safarova. One also has to remember that Safarova was easily beaten by the 254 ranked Vesnina on clay during the first round of the Civitavecchia Challenger less than 2 weeks ago. My program rates Dulko a 76% chance of wiining. Dulko $1.40 (available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication) Henin-Hardenne v Ivanovic SF: Warsaw Ivanovic may well be exceeding expectations this week but she has yet to meet someone of Henin's temperament and class. While the Serb won yesterday, Dechy was definitely in the game while also managing to expose a few of Ivanovic's frailties. Ivanovic is, without doubt, an up-and-coming talent but Henin will have a potential final against mega arch-rival Clijsters clearly in her sights. Short odds, but Henin's clinical dispatch of Schydner yesterday points to her current form. As a point of interest, Henin said in a post match interview that the heavy/wet conditions evident during her match with Kabchi were very hard to deal with and that they hindered her power game. The forecast is clear today but I think she'd still prevail either way. Henin $1.24 (available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication) |
Agree with both of those picks mate.
I only saw bits and pieces of the Ivanovic match last night and from what I saw she seemed to lack the killer instinct to put her opponent away. Too many unforced errors on key points and if she does that again tonight against the classier Henin-Hardenne she will be looking at a very lopsided scoreline. Cheers, Mark |
Update
Bets 87; Won 62; Lost 25 At Flat Stakes: Bet 87 units; Won 13.12 units; ROI 15.1% Henin did enough to beat Ivanovic without looking too convincing while Dulko put in an absolute shocker. One has to question her temperament after such performances - a mental note for another day. Na Li v Sfarova. Estoril Final I'm not convinced Safarova won on her own merits yesterday - more an instance of Dulko losing the plot with a large number of unforced errors. One thing I strongly believe is that Na Li will not 'fold' and will play to the very end. She's proved my assessment of her from wrong this week with a clinical display of power shotmaking - amply displayed in her 6:1 6:1 demolition of the classy yet fragile Safina. I didn't think Li's game was suited to clay and she has little experience on the surface but again, I was clearly wrong. There's been plenty of upsets this week so anything can happen yet I'm still confident enough to take the short odds. Li $1.27 @ 5Dimes Note: According to my program Kuznetsova is value around the $3 mark that is currently on offer. However I personally don't like betting against Henin. One thing my algorithms don't factor is finals pressure and I'm sure Justine will be keen to beat Kuznetsova who bested her arch-rival Clijsters. I'd like to bet on Henin but she's too short and was a little up and down yesterday by her high standards. |
Bets 88; Won 62; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 88 units; Won 12.12 units; ROI 13.8% Peng lost last night so a poor end to a poor week. More chaos today as bookies are excruciatingly slow to price up. I'll list bets and very early lines as there's only about 2 hours before the start of play and only a handful of bookies are online for WTA. I'm still crunching numbers but have placed the following bets. Garrigues v Panova Berlin: Round 1 Clay specialist v returning from illness and hard-court specialist Panova. Garrigues $1.50 Pierce v Chakvetadze Berlin: Round 1 Experience vs inexperience. But for 1 game, Pierce has been in solid form over past 2-3 weeks. Pierce $1.45 Peschke v Sucha Berlin: Round 1 Solid clay-couter who cruised through qualies up against out-of-form Sucha coming off a double bagel last week. Peschke $1.50 |
Bets 90; Won 64; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 90 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 14.5% Two wins and a void as Sucha withdrew and was replaced by LL Haynes. Very jumbled start to the week in terms of bookies prices. There was a wide discrepancy in the early odds yesterday and some very attractive early prices - even a few arbs available. I'm not sure why, but there was also a lot on money traded on Betfair - again some very interesting prices. It's a pity there aren't more days like it! Garrigues' price came in fairly quickly so I'll record her at $1.45 in the record as opposed to the early $1.50. Please note: I'm going to introduce half-unit stakes for betting purposes. Flat stakes are a great means of comparing various tipping systems but it makes it difficult to back outsiders on a consistent basis. This also permits a little conservatism during the topsy-turvy changeover between surfaces. My personal betting stakes are proportional to my perceived overlay - it's a modified form of Kelly betting. Randriantefy v Dechy Berlin: Round 1 Dechy's a good chance of winning this but the price on Randriantefy is too high. Randriantefy played one poor game against Na Li last week so I feel her price is an over reaction. Remember Dechy was beaten on red clay by the unheralded Muesberger in the Fed Cup less than two weeks ago. She also played poorly against Paszek in the same series. Her record on clay is a competent 60/49 compared to Randriantefy's 114/59. Punters are probably reacting to Dechy's solid showing in her loss to Ivanovic in Warsaw but I wouldn't be taking the low odds on that result alone. Like all players Randriantefy can have bad days but there's no way she should be rated a 30% chance of winning as the average prices suggest. Randriantefy $3.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT. Savchuk v Tanasugarn Morocco: Round 1 Not too many bookies pricing this up but Savchuk's a real chance. Tanasugarn may be about 100 ranking places higher than her opponent but nearly all her form is on hard. Her clay record stands at 12/33 and she only plays two or three torunaments on the surface each season. Savchuk is a young up-and-comer who played in Warsaw last week where she won three qualies and her first round match against the highly-rated Pennetta. It's true that Pennetta has been troubled by injury but Savchuk has also cruised through the qualies this week and should be well used to the conditions. This is Tanasugarn's first WTA game on the dirt since last year's French Open. Savchuk $1.80 @ Interwetten 1 UNIT (There could be better prices later - Interwetten have poor margins but not that many books are posting lines on Morocco) |
Late Picks
Sorry for the late info but there's still 2.5 hour for the first game and about 4 hours before the second game. (My internet server dropped out this arvo).
Peng v Vento-Kabchi. Berlin: Round 2 Peng may not be a superstar on clay but then neither is Kabchi. The Chinese player is improving with every game and she always display a great deal of tenacity. The surface isn't made for her power game but she often makes up for it with good movement. Her 30/7 clay career record is improving each week while kabchi's is still as poor as ever (27/44). The prices are on the value line for Peng but she has made great strides in the past few weeks. Peng $1.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit Peschke v Zvonereva Berlin: Round 2 The question here is whether Zvonereva's dreadful form slump will continue. The last few weeks of the hardcourt season were poor by her standards and her efforts in Charlston and Warsaw were very ordinary. On her day she has a great clay game so today's outcome will depend a lot on her attitude. She sounds very 'disappointed' during post match interviews. To be sure, Peschke is no superstar but she's been playing well over the past few weeks and has the benefit of some solid wins in the qualies. She also played well at Amelia Island reaching the third round after coming through qualies. Peschke $2.70 generally available HALF UNIT |
Bets 94; Won 67; Lost 27
Units Staked: 93 units; Won 15.64 units; ROI 16.8% (the above format has changed very slightly as I've added the use of half units) Three wins and a loss so a good night. Funnily enough the bet I was most confident of - Savchuk - ended up being the loser. Randriantefy drifted to $3.60 at some books and Peschke got close to $3.00 but I'll leave them as they were in the records. I'll post early lines and can adjust prices in the record if they come in. Probably better to get info out early after my ISP's dropout yesterday. Pierce v Likhovtseva Berlin: Round 2 Pierce has been in good form recently and has only had the one poor game during the clay swing (losing to the in-form Vives at Charleston). Judging by her interviews she's very determined to have a good clay season and has high aims for Roland Garros this year. Pierce has a solid 90/41 record on the surface and relies on her power as her 'large' frame means she's not the best mover. Likhovtseva is a real journeywoman who, at age 29, is nearing the end of her career. She doesn't seem to favour any surface and is a competent 65/54 on the surface. Both players are known to throw in shockers every now and again but Pierce has the form and mental edge for mine. Pierce $ 1.68 @ 1 Unit. (I don't bet at Hills but this is an early line - should be others soon) Randriantefy v Shaughnessy Berlin: Round 2 I wrote about Randriantefy yesterday so won't repeat it here. She comes up against Shaughnessy who was very nearly beaten by the lowly-ranked Prusova yesterday. Much of this rustiness may have been due to a nagging back injury that has forced her to retire twice in the past month. Ive never rated Shaughnessy on clay as she relies too much on her serve and is far more at home on hardcourts. Her career record is an average 60/53 with far fewer wins over competent clay-court specialists. Huge odds in my opinion. Randriantefy $1.83 @ Will Hills 1 Unit. Pennetta v Jankovic Berlin: Round 2 Pennetta has won two tournaments on red clay this year and though the fields weren't that strong, she is still a classy player on the dirt. Her carrer record stands at 85/38 compared to Jankovic's 34/25. The only cloud over Pennetta is a recent foot injury but judging by her result and general play yesterday, she seems to be over it (she withdrew form Charlston 3 weeks ago). Jankovic's a tenacious competitor and this game is sure to be close, but the odds on her are surprisingly low. This would have been a full unit but for the small injury concern. Pennetta $2.50 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT. Martinez v Dulko Berlin: Round 2 Martinez has been a bit up and down over the past few weeks after a great start to the hardcourt season. Having said that, Dulko is one of the moodiest players on tour - as a seen by her total capitulation in losing to safarova last week. After losing the first set tiebreak she just spat the dumy and stopped playing - going on to lose 0:6. Dulko goes ok on clay and although she has a 40/23 career record her best results have come on hard. This match should be another close encounter - Martinez definitely has the game to win but there is a small question mark over her form. Martinez $2.30 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT |
HOLD YOUR TICKETS
This is unofficial but Savchuk may have won last night. The official site has her playing tonight and several bookies have priced up the game.
Funnily enough ESPN reported Savchuk as winning last night but I thought the mistake was there's and not the official site. Even if Tansugarn won and then withdrew for whatever reason, there's 3-4 players who would be promoted as the LL rather than Savchuk. Again, it's unofficial but this is such a small tournament with poor coverage that I wouldn't be surprised. Cross your fingers if you placed a bet. |
Regarding Savchuk - I was paid for a win, and very happy to receive it.
While I'm on, a big thanks to Marco, Betsy and Karla for all there info - I have been following you for a week or so, and am delighted with how it's going. Keep up the great work. CJ |
Thanks CJ -
I too have now been paid for the win so I guess that just about makes it official as I don't know too many bookies who willingly part with their cash. The amended update now reads: Bets 94; Won 68; Lost 26 Units Staked: 93 units; Won 17.44 units; ROI 18.5% |
You ripper - changed my whole day :)
Centrebet ticket - I took out the wager amount.. Thanks Marco
Karla |
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Bets 98; Won 70; Lost 28
Units Staked: 96 units; Won 17.27 units; ROI 17.6% Two wins and two losses for a very small loss. Both winners were avaliable at slightly better prices so it was possible to get a break-even position but I'll leave the early lines in the record. Pierce v Petrova Berlin: Round 3 This will be a big ask of Pierce but she's in superior form to Petrova at the moment and has had two good wins here in Berlin. She's also more experienced (90/41 clay record), rates clay as her favourite surface and, as mentioned yesterday, is very determined to play well during this swing. Pierce recently beat Petrova on hard which is only relevant because it is the Russian's favourite surface (Indian Wells 6:2 6:2). Mary should therefore enter this game with some confidence. Petrova certainly has the game to win today but a large part of her price reflects her reputation on hard where she's had most of her success. The slow European clay conditions don't really suit her game as she prefers it much faster (grass is her second-best surface). Petrova's clay record stands 44/30 but she hasn't beaten anyone of note on red clay for more than two years. Her best clay results have been on American green clay which has a higher speed-rating than red. That said, I'm going to be cautious and take a half unit. Pierce $2.50 HALF UNIT (This is an early line available at a few smaller books with poor margins. I expect better later). Shaughnessy v Bovina Berlin: Round 3 At the risk of contradicting myself I'm backing Shaughnessy - someone, as I said yesterday, I don't rate on clay. However if on current form she can beat Randriantefy in straight sets she can surely beat Bovina as red clay is far from the Russian's best surface. Sure she's competent but her second round match against Daniilidou yesterday showed her vulnerabilty as Daniilidou is very ordinary on the dirt. This was also evident in her struggle to beat Hantuchova in Warsaw last week as Hantuchova is another player who is ordinary on clay. There are minor concerns over Shaughnessy who has had a nagging back injury but according to reports, this didn't seem to hamper her yesterday. I'll take the long odds but another cautious approach for a half unit. Shaughnessy $4.75 @ Sportstab HALF UNIT (Maybe slightly better prices later) NOTE: If anyone with a Betfair account wants a small-stakes fun bet, lay Henin at around the $1.10 mark. A ten dollar bet returns around $100. My reasoning is Henin had to play 2 matches yesterday - both were 3-setters and she looked a tad ordinary in her losing sets. She must be knackered and played Warsaw last week with heavy strapping on her thigh. She'll probably come out and win but there's some 'beer-money' value at those prices. NOTE TWO: At this stage of the tournament Mauresmo stands out as the likely finalist from the bottom half of the draw. Henin, Clijsters, Sharapova and Kuznetsova are all in the top half. Mauresmo has to face Razzano today and maybe Petrova or Bovina, both of whom are vulnerable as explained in today's tips. She's worth backing now at $5.50 or more on Betfair which then gives you the opportunity to lay her back if she makes the final for a guaranteed profit. Mauresmo is currently rated 'number one' for clay form in my database (her record is 100/37 on clay). You could back her at the bookies but I doubt you'll get the same price as Betfair - Ladbrokes go $5.00. |
Bets 100; Won 70; Lost 30
Units Staked: 97 units; Won 16.27 units; ROI 16.7% A poor evening with two losses. Pierce was well supported in the betting and fought back in the second set but just wasn't good enough on the day. Shaughnessy was generally outclassed. Mauresmo v Petrova Berlin: QF Wrote about these two yesterday so won't repeat it here. Mauresmo's 101/30 record speaks for itself and after a very nervous start yesterday (trailed 0:4 first set), she went on to wipe Razzano off the court 6:4 6:2. There's a lot of ranking places and serious prize money up for grabs this week so I expect the top players like Mauresmo to be very focused. If she's on her game - and there's no reason to think she won't be - then Petrova faces a real struggle. Mauresmo $1.36 @ Ladbrokes (Early line) Kuznetsova v Schydner Berlin: QF Kuznetsova has been in great form over the past few weeks, displaying her power game in Warsaw and her determination in Berlin. Martinez really puched her yesterday in a close 3 setter, but Conchita is no mug on clay and her game is very difficult to counter. As a comparison, Kuznetsova beat Clijsters in Warsaw (2:6 6:2 6:3) while Schydner beat Clijsters yesterday after Kim self-destructed and then retired. Schydner was trailing 6:7 1:5 and saved 4 match points before Clijsters for some obscure reason, totally collapsed. Both Kuznetsova and Schydner are solid clay players but the Russian is in better form and is far more mentally stable than Schydner who, like quite a few of the players on tour, can throw in really shocking peformances. Kuznetsova is right on the value line but I'll take the bet. Kuznetsova $1.33 @ Will Hills (Early Line) NOTE: I still believe there's some value in Mauresmo outright around the $4.50 mark at Betfair. Her next two opponents will be Petrova and probably Bovina both of whom are very beatable on clay. In the top half of the draw, Henin plays Sharapova today which eliminates one of them so Mauresmo's price will certainly come in after tonight's game . . . should she win. Personally I'd only recommend this bet if you're able to lay back your stake at Betfair if needed should Mauresmo make the final. It will surely help our cause if Henin wins tonight. |
Bets 102; Won 70; Lost 32
Units Staked: 99 units; Won 14.27 units; ROI 14.4% Tough old game this punting. Not the best couple days after a promising start to the week. The semis are too tough to pick so we''ll wait for the finals. |
Rome Masters and Prague Open
http://www.pragueopen.cz/2005/index.php?setlang=en http://www.telecomitaliamasters.fed...home.asp?LNG=EN Two relatively large tournaments so a lot of games to be played over the next week. Bookies very slow to price up again so I'll post early lines. Better prices may be available from 5Dimes in an hour or so. Early lines from Pinnacle Daniilidou v Cho Prague: Round 1 Daniilidou is no superstar on clay but her Korean opponent is both inexperienced and unsuited to the surface (2/8 career record spanning several years). Cho is first up on the dirt while Daniilidou played with reasonable success in Warsaw and Berlin. Daniilidou $1.35 1 UNIT Nagyova v Tanasugarn Prague: Round 1 Nagyova is a competent clay player while Tanasugarn has a resord similar to Cho's. see last weeks write up Savchuk v Tanasugarn. This is basically a bet against the Thai. Nagyova $1.40 1 UNIT Kostanic v Osterloh Prague: Round 1 Kostanic has a solid clay record and is at home on the surface while Osterloh is a hard courter who relies on her big serve to keep her in games. The slow conditions won't suit her and historically she has struggled on the surface. Kostanic $1.25 1 UNIT Fedak v Stosur Rome: Round 1 Fedak came through qualies, has a better clay record than Stosur and has been in marginally better form over the past month or two. Stosur prefers it much faster, is first up on red clay and has a moderate 20/21 career record. Fedak $1.60 HALF UNIT Garrigues v Jidkova Rome: Round 1 Garrigues is a specialist clay-courter who shows a bit of tenacity on the dirt. She has a superior clay record to her opponent which is a poor 30/34. Garrigues also has better recent form - Jidkova lost in Berlin's first round to Vento-Kabchi who is very ordinary on clay. Garrigues $1.42 1 UNIT Jankovic v Randriantefy Rome: Round 1 I have a lot of respect for Randriantefy and she's won quite a few bets for me but her recent form is on the decline. In contrast, Jankovic is on the up and she is mentally very strong. Put in a very solid peformance in Berlin - showed she can play with the "big girls" on the dirt. Jankovic $1.33 1 UNIT Groenefled v Serra-Zanetti Rome: Round 1 Zanetti will be the home crowd favourite but she has a negative clay record with her best results coming on the Challenger tour. She did ok in Acupulco this year but Groenefeld has the better record and better recent form. The German showed her power htting in Berlin last week and has a couple of Challenger tournament wins on clay. Groenefeld $1.40 HALF UNIT Dechy v Camerin Round 1: Rome Camerin will be another home crowd favourite and while her clay record is ok, her recent form is terrible. She was beaten two weeks ago by 634 ranked Cornet on the Challenger clay circuit and was beaten in the first round of Amelia Island and Charleston. Dechy played well in Warsaw and should have enough today. Dechy $1.25 1 UNIT |
Bets 110; Won 75; Lost 35
Units Staked: 106 units; Won 13.37 units; ROI 12.6% Short on time so abbreviated picks: ALL 1 UNIT Smashnova-Pistolesi v Likhovtseva Rome: Round 1 Pistolesi has the clay skills to win this game against an indifferent Likhovtseva. Pistolesi $2.15 Pinnacle Garbin v Linetskya Rome: Round 1 Returning-from-injury Linetskya with moderate clay record meets in form Garbin. Garbin $2.20 Pinnacle Pennetta v Asagoe Rome: Round 1 Some concern over Pennetta's foot but home crowd favourite with great clay credentials. Pennetta $1.83 WillHill Razzano - Vento-Kabchi Rome: Round 1 In-form Razzano meets Kabchi who rates clay as her least favourite surface. Razzano $1.55 Pinnacle Vinci v Chladkova Rome: Round 1 Similar skill levels but Vinci will have crowd on her side and has recently won clay challenger. Vinci $2.25 Pinnacle Ivanovic v Golovin Rome: Round 1 Another game of similar skill levels. Ivanovic as been on red clay for a few weeks whereas Golovin's been off for a few weeks. Ivanovic $2.10 Pinacle |
Well done marco. You have a ton of ability on WTA form. Keep up the great work.
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