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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 1st February 2013 12:42 PM

Unfortunately I don't keep that type of record.

However I've been on-and-off looking at boxing quinellas of all the horses that are not the lay selections, so almost all the field is boxed. However I haven't kept records but expect to do so when/if I get time.

For example, yesterday the quinella was struck in the 10 qualifying races. The total outlay was $467 and the Unitab return was $985.

michaelg 1st February 2013 03:22 PM

Out of interest I've checked the results of box quinellas for today's races already run.

There's currently been 7 races for 7 successes. An outlay of $298 for a return of $580.

michaelg 1st February 2013 10:33 PM

Not a bad day. From the 23 selections there were 23 smiles for a profit of $170.31.

From the 16 races there were 16 successful quinellas. The outlay was $638 for a return of $855.

Merriguy 2nd February 2013 08:39 AM

Going along swimmingly, Michael. If you are in Sydney you had have to be able to swim over the last 24 hours or so!!!

Two things though, for the sake of accuracy, by my count there were only 17 selections yesterday, or really only 16 as Tamworth 8 was abandoned.

Your quinella idea seems to have legs. Which TAB are you using for your figures?

UselessBettor 2nd February 2013 08:50 AM

The problem with exotics is that pay a lot less as soon as you start betting on them.

stugots 2nd February 2013 09:52 AM

Amen to that

michaelg 2nd February 2013 12:36 PM

Hi, Merriguy, I've been using Unitab. However today I'll be betting them all on NSW but only for the minimum with flexi-betting which is more or less the same principle when laying for a liability. By my calcs if I had flexi-bet yesterday the profit would have been higher percentage-wise.

Today's selections:

Caulfield
5/1
7/8

Dombeen
3/14
5/5, 7, 9
6/9, 11, 12
9/10

Morphetville
5/12
6/10, 11
8/4

Kembla
2/10
8/11

Casino
5/7, 9, 11
6/11
7/8, 9

Kyneton
2/5
3/4, 7, 10
5/3, 12

Gold Coast
2/15
4/10
8/3, 13

Toowoomba
4/13
6/2, 11, 12
7/10
8/10

Ascot
4/3
5/9
8/8

michaelg 2nd February 2013 05:17 PM

Correction - Kembla 8/11 is not a selection because it's got 97 Unitab points.

michaelg 2nd February 2013 09:24 PM

Not a bad day. From the 38 selections there were 38 smiles for a profit of $332.51.

I didn't have a bet on the quinellas, but from a quick check I think I would've lost. When I get time I will check.

UselessBettor 3rd February 2013 09:09 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Not a bad day. From the 38 selections there were 38 smiles for a profit of $332.51.

I didn't have a bet on the quinellas, but from a quick check I think I would've lost. When I get time I will check.

Michaelg, just be careful with exotics. They are worthwhile in the bigger meetings but for those country meetings you can seriously affect you odds.

For example Kembla Range 2
The Quinalla had 3883 cash in the pool. Assuming it paid out 85% that will be $3300. It paid out $74.20 That means there were approx 45 winners.
You become winner 46. That drops the odds to $71.70

Thats only if you bet $1 on it. If you bet $10 on it then the odds would drop to $60. this stops you scaling it up with more money. And it might even be enough at minimum stakes to drop too many odds and result in a loss.


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