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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 8th February 2013 09:37 AM

Thanks, SpeedyBen. I'm looking forward for the results of your research.

I read Don Scott's book how he prices a horse. I'm fairly certain he did not take into account the C, T and D factors unless the horse won recently, yet today's electronic and printed form guides think it's worthwhile to show this information regardless of when the horse won.

If his market still ignores this form factor then its possible his market for his "outsiders" may have a weak point as evidenced by our Lay method that shows 16 accidents from the total of 34.

michaelg 8th February 2013 11:49 AM

Today's selections:

Moonee Valley
4/2, 9

Walcha
1/2, 13
2/3, 6, 9
5/9, 10
6/5, 11

Pakenham
3/4
4/1
5/3, 11
7/8
9/9, 11

Canberra
6/3, 5

Bunbury
2/6
3/9, 11
4/1, 7
5/6, 9

Mark 8th February 2013 02:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, Mark.

I Place layed the selections for only one day but I then stopped. I lost interest because Betfair unfortunately fielded (and still does) S.P. for the Place on major tracks only.



A fair enough response michaelg. Despite no SP on most races have you kept records of how many ran a place?

michaelg 8th February 2013 02:11 PM

Unfortunately no. I can check my records but that will take ages, but I'm not too sure if/where Betfair keeps their Place results.

The Ocho 8th February 2013 02:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Unfortunately no. I can check my records but that will take ages, but I'm not too sure if/where Betfair keeps their Place results.

Most of the time on the country tracks (and sometimes the city ones) there is just no volume for placing any meaningful back or lay place bets.

SpeedyBen 8th February 2013 02:51 PM

Another weak point, which you have overcome, is that the ratings show unraced and untrialled horses at $301 dollars or so instead of putting N/R next to them.

michaelg 8th February 2013 08:31 PM

A bad day - there was one accident from the 26 selections for a loss of $173.40.

UselessBettor 9th February 2013 12:47 AM

michaelg,

I hope you have been recording down all the info in a spreadsheet so you can check things easily.

If so could you provide a breakdown based on field size. I think you might find most of the accidents fall in the fields sized 9 through to 12.

michaelg 9th February 2013 07:25 AM

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

However I've manually looked at the results from last Saturday.

Regardless of field size there have been 3 accidents for a profit of $453, and with fields of 13-plus there's been a profit of $331 but with no accidents.

It's something I will look at when I get time. Maybe it's worthwhile to increase the size of the standard bet in these larger fields. If there's any selections today in these larger fields I will identify them.

UselessBettor 9th February 2013 07:30 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

However I've manually looked at the results from last Saturday.

Regardless of field size there have been 3 accidents for a profit of $453, and with fields of 13-plus there's been a profit of $331 but with no accidents.

It's something I will look at when I get time. Maybe it's worthwhile to increase the size of the standard bet in these larger fields. If there's any selections today in these larger fields I will identify them.

thanks michael.


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