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-   -   Who believes you can win on negative expection games? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10180)

BJ 7th August 2005 02:17 PM

So if what you are suggesting is that a staking system such as the one I mentioned, will not return as much as level stakes?

If so, prove it on a series of 37 spins with 18 winners.

Your previous posts are just numbers on a screen to me. Don't know how you came up with them.

Show me, a 37 spin series, showing level stakes compared with this staking system. If you are right, then I will lose more than $10.

Forget about any limits, start at $10 and see where it takes you....

jfc 7th August 2005 02:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BJ
So if what you are suggesting is that a staking system such as the one I mentioned, will not return as much as level stakes?

If so, prove it on a series of 37 spins with 18 winners.

Your previous posts are just numbers on a screen to me. Don't know how you came up with them.

Show me, a 37 spin series, showing level stakes compared with this staking system. If you are right, then I will lose more than $10.

Forget about any limits, start at $10 and see where it takes you....


I have now actually completely examined a 37 spin game, but first I'd like some indication that you'd be able to understand my results.

A 2 spin-game is the simplest possible using your staking. How can you NOT understand it!

Don't you understand what your 4 possible results will be?

Are you unaware that the win probability is 18/37 and a loss is 19/37?

Or that the probability of 2 independent events both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities?

If you don't know what expectation is then google it up.

Work through at least my simple 2-spin example. I suspect one of us will then learn something.

BJ 7th August 2005 03:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
I have now actually completely examined a 37 spin game, but first I'd like some indication that you'd be able to understand my results.

A 2 spin-game is the simplest possible using your staking. How can you NOT understand it!

Don't you understand what your 4 possible results will be?

Are you unaware that the win probability is 18/37 and a loss is 19/37?

Or that the probability of 2 independent events both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities?

If you don't know what expectation is then google it up.

Work through at least my simple 2-spin example. I suspect one of us will then learn something.


Your results should suggest 1 of 3 things.
Equal to level stakes, returning a $10 loss.
Worse, a loss of more than $10.
Better, a loss of less than $10, or a win.

If your results suggest 1 of these 3 things, then I will understand it...

jfc 7th August 2005 04:06 PM

BJ,

calculating the expectation of a 2-spin game is too much for you, but you want me to spam out a 37-spin game?

I'll just give you some of my results instead.

$10 start, no limit, fractional increments (e.g. 12, 14.4, 17.28... )

Expectation = -$11.03725 which is worse than level -$10.

You will win whenever you make 17 or more spins ~70% of the time.

But the massive losses for 16 or fewer wins more than wipe out your losses.

Mr J 7th August 2005 07:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BJ
Work it out again Mr. J.

This time reread what you yourself wrote.

First 18 spins all win = +$10
Last 19 spins all lose = -$10

I hope you are not an accountant...


Lol. Read my post again. We start with a $10 bet, and every time we win we subtract $10 from the bet (unless the bet is $10). Every time we lose we add $10.

The first 18 bets are all worth $10, so profit +180.
The next 19 all lose, with each loss being worth $10 more than the last.
You should do the maths again.

Look, just drop it. Visit those websites I posted. Or, you can continue to think that you are smarter than everyone else, including all the casino's and mathematicians who have studied the probabilities/maths of gambling.

BJ 8th August 2005 11:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr J
Lol. Read my post again. We start with a $10 bet, and every time we win we subtract $10 from the bet (unless the bet is $10). Every time we lose we add $10.

The first 18 bets are all worth $10, so profit +180.
The next 19 all lose, with each loss being worth $10 more than the last.
You should do the maths again.

Look, just drop it. Visit those websites I posted. Or, you can continue to think that you are smarter than everyone else, including all the casino's and mathematicians who have studied the probabilities/maths of gambling.


Yes, I just reread your post and I still can't find the words "unless the bet is $10".
Where did you hide them.??

That staking system goes against everything I have been saying anyway, so I don't know what you gain by using it as an example.

As far as the websites you posted, if I believed everything that was posted on the internet, I would be hiding under my bed so the little green men couldn't get me....


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