35% Course favs or Higher
Hawksberry - WIN $1.60 first race = $6 ( Largest bet $10 total = $10)
Ipswich - WIN $1.70 fourth Race = $2 ( Largest bet $60 total = $100)

40% Course favs or Higher
No Races

Results Overall :

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 29
Profitable Meetings : 27
Unprofitable Meetings: 1
Profit : $104
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 7
Profitable Meetings : 7
Profit : $56
Highest Bet : $10

This keeps ticking along nicely....

Good Luck.

Fridays courses to follow :

35% Course favs or Higher

• Rockhampton (36%)
• Sale (36%)

40% Course Favs or Higher

• None

Good Luck.

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at tracks that have a low strike rate.
They have a probability potential if you get what I mean.
We know that they will approach the statistical average of 30%
Just my 2 cents worth

Brownie,

I would have thought that too. But it doesn't work that way. For some reason some tracks have a higher winning percentage of favs always. And others perform badly. It mighjt be the types of races being run, or some sort of course bias.

I ran over those that were under 25% favs winning and there were at least 6 meetings in the last 2 weeks that failed to produce a fav winner on the first 4 races.

Good Luck.

Well if it is working, then good.
Maybe long term might tell a different story

Question
 

Hi wesmip!
How many years of back data did you use to arrive at the favs win percentage on the different tracks?
Thank's
Cheers

marcus,

Its based on the last 12 meetings. And changes as times progresses.
It is roughly the last 100 races.

Godd Luck.

Only the one Fav winner at Rockhampton. Wish it had come a bit earlier in the day. Still a winner keeps us in front.

35% Course favs or Higher
Rockhampton - WIN $1.90 sixth race = $1 ( Largest bet $90 total = $170)
Sale - WIN $1.40 first Race = $4 ( Largest bet $10 total = $10)

40% Course favs or Higher
No Races

Results Overall :

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 31
Profitable Meetings : 30
Unprofitable Meetings: 1
Profit : $109
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 7
Profitable Meetings : 7
Profit : $56
Highest Bet : $10

wesmip1, could I ask if you are winning at level stakes..

I presume it is losing. Very interesting anyway. Has got me thinking.

If you want my 2 cents as to why mathematics may not apply is the human element in what makes a favourite.

If you back black everytime at roulette you may encounter a run of outs that doubling up simply breaks your bank no matter what casino rules are. There is no law to say that red couldn't suck up a billion dollars.

With favourites though, its not chance deciding. It is human beings deciding what makes a good bet and the run of outs or ins for favourites comes down to intellect, not chance.

Dunno if that makes sense but I know what I mean.

Manygeese,

I would think on Level Stakes it is down if you class each bet as a bet.

But if you class each Meeting as a bet then it is doing well. I assume you need a bank of approx $500-$1000 to cover $10 bets for a meeting if the run of outs start to pile up.

I will see hoe it goes. Maybe it is worth stopping at the 4th Race thus the maximum bet won't be too high.

I am just trying it to see how it goes. I am aiming to make $1000 or a month of posting before retiring the system.

Good Luck.