I'm sorry Crash, but this is just illogical.

Is the winner of the Caulfield Cup each year a certainty? If not, why should "accurate" ratings be asked to do the impossible?

By your definition of "accurate", it is impossible for any ratings to be "accurate" no matter how good they are because in order to be "accurate" according to your definition they must defy the laws of logic and consistently select horses to win that are not mathematical certainties to win!!

I'm not being illogical Mr Logic. Unless giving correct meaning to the English language is being illogical.

According to my dictionary there is nothing wrong with my definition of the word 'accurate':

"conforming exactly or almost exactly or to a standard or performing with total accuracy."

Chrome obviously meant 'very consistent' ratings [to his personally set standard of acceptance] and not 'very accurate' ratings, according to the explanation in his last post.

Consistent: "Marked by an orderly, logical, aesthetically consistent relation of parts". Seems to fit the bill I think.

crash, I can see why you challenged the statement.

It is more important that the ratings are consistent, but they must be accurate, not in selecting the "right" horse each time, but in assessing the chances of each horse overall - longterm.

The distribution of strike rate and loss on turnover should relate almost exactly to the TAB prices and rankings.

If I knew the final TAB dividend for each horse, I wouldn't need ratings at all ;)

Thanks Chrome, I get the picture.

Here's an example of the way I was talking about accuracy...

Of the last 97 bets on top rated horses...

Overall they returned a loss on turnover
-TAB -6.91%
-Bookie Fixed Odds -5.05%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 42.42% POT

Where they drifted on the tote from the rated price
-TAB -12.67%
-Bookie Fixed Odds -28.56%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 7.17% POT

Where they firmed on the tote from the rated price
-TAB -1.92%
-Bookie Fixed Odds +15.29%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 72.93% POT

And that is just on the bet side.

If you account for the TAB takeout of 14.50% and also the Bookie Fixed Odds takeout of up to 30% (in some cases), things look pretty good.

Chrome,

I hate to say this but I think there are not many people that can follow what you are doing except the delect few who are dedicated or who can buy/write a database for themselves on the results and ratings.

I can easily do what you are doing and do it as well as it is quite a profitable way to invest ... Its all about long term averages and the use of getting good value and laying poor value on betfair.

Keep up the good work.... It won't matter that you have released what you are doing because it will be too hard for most people to get the statistics required to be able to follow you.

Good Luck.

wesmip1,

You're right, as I stated from the outset, it's not hard and I think just about anyone can do it.

I don't have anything of this from a database, or even my own database.
It's all calculated on spreadsheet.

Please don't take it as me being original, I was just trying to demonstrate that with the right knowledge, tools and research, anyone can do it, providing they are working with "accurate" stuff.

The concept is easy, getting it right is the battle.

A Mathetically proven way to get a good Value bet
 

Just wondering if anyone has had a go at Automating this system ??

or

would like to have a go !

contact me on newpunter at optusnet dot com dot au

Mike

Apparently there is already a lot of betting Bots and various software around that is automated. The problem seems to be reliability.

there are a lot of bots out there !! I havent found one that has the ability
to do whats needed for this system

does anyone know of one around ??

or someone who could code it for me at a fair price