Magivor

You may like to start your own thread with your lay selections. Good luck with them.

Clearly no future in laying the above 11.00 selections but...
 

I think we've turned up a very interesting longshot win method. More to follow when I post the results. :D

Results: May 5th
 

Well I think things are looking interesting here. The "11.00 or less" lay selections continue to turn a profit, and while 11.00 may not be quite the right cut-off spot we'll continue with these and see what happens. Laying all the selections (nobody would do this anyway) is a clear loser and after today I won't summarise this group.

But... look at the selections above 11.00. We're getting some nice winners in this price range. This looks pretty good so I've included a summary of where we'd be if we had backed all the selections in this range, and I'll continue doing this in future weeks. I'll move to a new thread for next Saturday as we're not dealing just with lay's anymore. Prices from the B.A.T.

BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -17.00
BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -27.00
GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST +1.00
IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST +1.00
IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON -14.00
IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60
K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th

Lay All
===
Number of Selections: 116.00
Observed Successes: 103.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.79%
Expected Successes: 105.21
Expected Strike Rate: 90.70%
Advantage: -2.10%
Success due to luck: 51.46%
Units Profit: -61.10 :(
ROI: -52.67%

Lay 11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 53.00
Observed Successes: 47.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.68%
Expected Successes: 45.62
Expected Strike Rate: 86.08%
Advantage: 3.02%
Success due to luck: 55.00%
Units Profit: +13.40 :)
ROI: +25.28%

Back 11.50 or greater
===
Number of Selections: 63.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 11.11%
Expected Successes: 3.41
Expected Strike Rate: 5.41%
Advantage: 105.47% :eek:
Success due to luck: 14.97%
Units Profit: +74.50 :eek:
ROI: +118.25%

Doh. That's not right...
 

BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -17.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -27.00

should be

BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -16.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -26.00

All other figures are correct.

Who's doing what with these?
 

Anybody there? :o

HELLO ... Hello ... hello ......

Is anybody there ... there ... there ..... ?

Do you want me to continue on with this selection method or am I just amusing myself? :o

I'm over here.......here......here.....!!!
 

Where's that flippin' echo coming from?

Thanks for your persistence AP, I'm certainly an interested viewer but don't expect you to keep the candle burning just for me.

Maybe some viewers are a little troubled by some of the wins, but you clearly stated the provisos for this new method...so who knows?

Annie Who AP, thanks for your efforts thus far.

From inside my wallet ;)



Yep from this weekend onwards i'm doing a complete 180 turn on the selections above 11.00. On the limited data we've collected they look good as longshot win selections. The 11.00 and below are still (and should continue to be) good for the lay. I know some people don't like laying up towards the double figures but you'd be doing ok. I guess it's a matter of personal comfort.

Thanks for the feedback. Sometime you wonder who's out there listening. It's nice to know your efforts are appreciated. :)

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