84% place
 

Howdy Michaelg,

I have been working on a system that has produced 43% wins & 84% places.

I am new to the forum & was wondering how to get the best staking plan for these %'s.

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Below is previous thread.

I have been working on systems like most of you and was wondering if anyone can assess results.
I have 2 systems that i work on if anyone can comment on figures that would be great.
1) Started last month : Results for March 36 races, 23 Wins, 29 places
April 82 races, 26 Wins, 55 places
April is still continuing but is not performing as well

2) I have refined top system as of 19/4/2007
38 Races, 16 wins 32 places
Any analysis would be apporeciated

Todays selections - 27/4/2007

Colac - race 4 Number 1
Grafton - Race 7 Number 1
Queanbeyan - Race 3 Number 6
Race 8 Number 1
Rockhampton - Race 1 Number 3
Race 5 N 3

Hi, Savage.

Those are very good strike rates. At this time I don't think there is a large enough sample to get too enthused even though both of them show much promise. I have had a few Place systems that have performed well but have eventually crashed, one even showed a good profit of after about 100 races and then it went backwards.

Having said that, I would not be discouraged because every winning system had to start somewhere, and might not even had such a good strike rate and profit as yours after the same amount of races.

As for a stakings plan - different people have different methods, and others don't believe in them. If you've seen Maria's thread, she maintained the same percentage of the bank, so when the bank increased so too did the size of her bets - and look at the success she had. Maybe you might consider this.

All your selections today have either won or placed - brilliant! It would appear they are all 100 pointers on Unitab?

Sat: 28/4/07 Selections
 

Thanks for responding. I respect your comments. I have followed your threads for quite some time as well as others. I have combined various ideas from past threads with a few of my own filters.

Your right that it is early days yet.

To-day there were 6 Races 5 Wins & 6 Places

I would be interested in her thread asI have not read 1t

Tommorrows selections: I have to look at tracks & scratchings yet

Caulfield: R2/N2
R6/N4
Gold Coast R 5/N2
Morpetville R6/N1
Ascot R1/N3
R2/N1
R5/N1

Savage, her website is expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=18713.0.

In case I have made a mistake in typing the web address it is also shown on page 1 of the Lay The Fave thread.

If it takes 2 hours for you to do your system it's well worth it. I'll be following your selections tomorrow, and most likely will have a bet on them - I probably won't be the only one here doing so.

Results
 

Thanks again for you help

Hope you went well your bets.


Todays results 28/4

Morphetville no-go as slow track

Caulfield
R 2/ N 2 Placed $1.43
R 6/ N 4 Won $4.19 / $1.64
R 8/N 8 Placed $1.40
Gold. Coast
R 5/N 2 unplaced
Ascot
R 1/N3 Placed $1.21
R 2/N 1 Won $1.74 / 1.21
R 5/N 1 Won $2.60 / 1.30

Races 7 Wins 3 Places 6

So far 2 days postings Races 13 Wins 8 Places 12

Win 61% Places 92% [img]images/buttons/quote.gif[/img]

I have posted selections for Sunday on my thread. I still have to check tracks & scratchings to determine final selections

again the winners

you got Mr6-4 $4.19 Maxi $4.60
PR2-1 $1.74 TF $1.90
PR5-1 $2.60 TF $3.10

a difference of over 1 full betting point ?????????


for the places not as dramatic TODAY, but still a significant improvement backing CITY BEST TOTE, as it ALWAYS will be.

Here's a simple Place system that has performed well over the past few days.

1 ) 100 points on Unitab.
2 ) Top neural TIM selection.

The forum curse will now bury it.

Canterbury R2 no.1 - Swat
Canterbury R4 no.1 - Emperor Fu San
Canterbury R6 no.2 - Attend
Dombeen R3 no.2 - pegasus Pride
Dombeen R5 no.11 - Tails Are Wagging
Balaklava R4 no.1 - Kipchirdhir
Kempsey R2 no.1 - Thirtysixred
Kempsey R5 no.1 - Forest Path

Hi Michaelg,

Stats for Unitab Rating = 100 and Tim Rank = 1:

WSR 28.5%
W Pot -10.2%
PSR 58.5%
Pl Pot -7.5%

Using unitab divvies over 2.5 years.

Do you have a database for testing things like this? You come up with some good ideas and for the amount of time you put into it, you should have one. I can help you with it if you like.

Thanks for your information, Chinbok. I don't have a database only because I know practically nothing about computers and would most likely be completely lost if trying to learn by correspondence. But many thanks for your kind offer.

I made a mistake with the rules - I should have stated DIST instead of TIM. Even then, I suppose a LOT of 7.5% isn't too harmful, and if City Best Tote as suggested by Partypooper is applied, then it might even have crossed over into profit. Again, its interesting to see with the neurals that Place is a better betting proposition than Win.

Hopefully DIST with Unitab 100-pointers might not fare too badly, and if it does then I'll be looking closely at filters, such as distance of race, condition of track...

Amazingly, after 5 races that have been run at the moment, four selections have placed for a return of $7.64 on NSW TAB.

Using Dist instead of Tim gives similar SR and POT results.

Using Dist AND Tim improves the Pl SR to 62.7% and PL Pot to -5.9%.