OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Lay the horse that has the jockey with the lowest win strike rate in the race.

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- - Lay the horse that has the jockey with the lowest win strike rate in the race. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17207)

Newit hadn't won at Flemington for almost 2yrs. Last Sat. his strike rate there dramatically improved, he won 2 races, or was it 3?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pengo

Ararat R2:
7 FLAWED (D YENDALL track s/r: 4.3 JAMIE EDWARDS & BR (track s/r:2)
1st fav on betfair atm. Some big bets going on to back it for a win.
9 MOS EISLEY (S MURPHY(A) track s/r:6 DARREN WEIR track s/r:6)
2nd fav on betfair atm.

I tend to favor mos eisley for the lay as the trainer has had more runners at the track than flawed's trainer and flawed's form looks the better of the two. Kinda ironic I have a horse called flawed in my selections, lol.

Oh hangon i misunderstood the s/r data, its not a percentage value but how many outs before hitting a winner, i think? So if thats the case, higher number the better.

Update: Mos Eisley won.

Neither of these would have been selected, as i just worked out the s/r % so i can adhere to bhag's selection criteria.

If Yendall doesn't win this race it would be interesting to see if he and the trainer win the next one. As Yendall's strike rate says he is due for a win and same too for the trainer. Either this one or the next one.

I think Jarraconi can be beaten this race, though I'm not laying it. Just something new I'm playing with.

Yep, keeping score 1st. Yendall is due to win the next one, if he is to live up to his s/r for the track.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

I think Jarraconi can be beaten this race, though I'm not laying it. Just something new I'm playing with.

Mmm ok. Pushing our luck but the same play thing says Killas Mate could be a lay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

Mmm ok. Pushing our luck but the same play thing says Killas Mate could be a lay.

Wish me luck I just put $50 for a place on Maple Bell

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Wish me luck I just put $50 for a place on Maple Bell

Missed it by '' that much.

yendall didn't win at all today heh. so much for his strike rate at the track. not enough results for him imho to get a fairer picture.

Ok lets prepare for tomorrow now that I got the stats and some time:

Sandown Lakeside.
Jockeys with sub 15% strike rates, worst to best.

Chris Symons
W Hernan (a)
Craig Williams
D Gauci
J Winks
C Newitt
V Duric
S W Arnold
D Dunn
D Oliver
J Benbow
G J Childs
C W Brown

Trainers with sub 15% strike rates, worst to best:

D A Hayes
B Mayfield-Smith
D T O'Brien
M J Ellerton
R E Laing
J F Moloney
D L Freedman

Interesting that Hayes doesn't do so good at Sandown! And he has fielded a lot of runners. Tho I think the problem is he runs more than one horse in the same race so no doubt that stuffs up the strike rate :-/