"I think Unitab might be the worst with Win and Place divvies, but NSW seems not to be the best with the exotics. Maybe someone might disagree?"-michaelg


michealg, my observations.

As you may recall I bet to place on short priced favorites and the past couple of years averaged show NSW at $1.182, Unitab at $1.195 and Betfair at $1.208...Before Commission removed!!!!! What is worse is that Betfair profits are far smaller due to the many occasions where you can't place a bet : where the price offered is silly or there's no money behind the price offered or the race jumps while I'm still trying to get on etc.

It's a strange way I do stuff but I don't mind betting on Unitab when it's showing $1.00 for the place because I know there's always a chance that the final divvy might be $1.50 or whatever, but I can't accept those $1.10 type offerings on Betfew, I mean Betfair.

Twobets, your figures show that there isn't too much difference with Place divvies between Unitab and NSW TAB. I've noticed that the NSW TAB when showing a divvy of $1.04 in early betting that it ultimately pays an acceptable price. Maybe because people bet around it causing it to ease. As you say this is also not unusual with Unitab.

However, I'm surprised with Betfair. I've found generally that the lower the TAB price then the better with Betfair. And if you are betting only short-priced horses then this is where there is the highest liquidity, which should mean that there is money behind the price offered. Of course this may not apply to some of the more obscure mid-week races.

B/F paying three places on the first at Bendigo!!!



But altogether too short!

With the 96pt rule , it might an idea to include the 95ptr if there is no 96ptr in the race.
There have been several getting up lately under these situations.

Cheers.

Good idea, Bhagwan. Will do so.

CF and $ Method.

There were 4 winners (even though its a Place method I will record Win results if/until they fail) from 10 selections paying $9.90, and 9 placegetters (the loser would have won on Betfair as they paid on the first three horses) for a return of $14.44.

Tomorrow's selections:
Gold Coast R3 no.8
New Plymouth R2 no.1
New Plymouth R7 no.3
New Plymouth R8 no.7
Northam R2 no.3
Sale R1 no.4
Sale R2 no.7
Sale R3 no.15

CF and Unitab Method.

Even though its early days, ignoring scratchings might be the way to go. There were 3 winners (again its a Place Method) from 5 selections for a return of $4.70, and all 5 placed for a return of $6.04.

Tomorrow's selections:
Sale R3 no.15
Sale R7 no.9
Gold Coast R1 no.1
Gold Coast R4 no.3
Hawkesbury R1 no.6
Hawkesbury R3 no.5

Hi Guys,

Interesting thread which got me thinking about setting the CF and PR to 3 and everything else to zero. (Thanks Michaelg for getting my brain out of idle!)
The rules I have used since 30th May are :-

1. Only consider Australian race meetings
2. Top point scorer(s) is the selection
3. Delete all horses that have had only one run or are 1st or 2nd up from a spell
4. Delete all horses with Unitab Rating <= 90
5. Delete all horses not placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both its past 2 starts
6. Delete all horses that have won their past 2 start

Results of these rules are :-

92 bets, 23 winners (25.0% S/R), 53 places (57.6% S/R)

Using the "worst case" scenario I have used the dividends of the Home TAB in these calculations. Obviously we would expect to get a better result with the numerous betting options open to us.

Win Bank +$16.20 Win POT % = 17.6%
Place Bank -$2.70 Place LOT % = -2.9%

I have also kept the Best of 3 Totes results

Win Bank +$34.85 Win POT % = +37.9%
Place Bank +$7.00 Place POT % = +7.6%

Bets for today would be

Sale R4#5 Destinationunknown
Hawkesbury R7#1 Ain't It Magic
Hawkesbury R9#5 Delenatii
Gold Coast R2#3 Girls Jeuney
Northam R5#5 Telluride
Northam R5#6 Snooperclyde
Northam R8#7 Ma Chienne

Try Try Again

Hi, Try Try Again.

Those are very promising results, and despite the 6 filters there is quite a bit of action because there were 92 bets in less than two weeks.

I presume the neural settings are CF and PR at 3, the others at 0.

The best of the 3 totes makes a huge difference to the bottom line. A very good example is one of today's selections - New Zealand R2 no.1. It won, paying $2.00 and $1.04 here in NSW, yet on Unitab it was $3.20 and $1.60. However, I don't think best of the TABs is available on Place betting for all meetings?

I'll be looking with interest at today's selections. Interestingly, none of them tallies with our selections.

Try Try Again.

Thanks for that .Looks quite interesting.

Cheers.
darky.

CF & $ Method.

There were 6 placegetters from 7 selections for a profit of $4.40.

There have now been 19 placegetters from 21 selections for a POT of 46%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R4 no.2
Grafton R3 no.12
Matamata R2 no.5
Matamata R3 no.1
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R8 no.11
Rocky R1 no.1
Rocky R5 no.1


CF & Unitab Method.

There were 5 selections today for 4 placegetters for a profit of $1.10.

There have now been 9 placegetters from 10 selections for a POT of 19.4%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R5 no.12
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R4 no.2
Queanbeyan R6 no.2
Rocky R1 no.1

Michael G, sorry to request this, but can you give the exact rules for your selections today ie the two systems CF & $, CF & Unitab. Unfortunately they get a little muddied as they get developed over the threads. Are CF, CP & $ all 3 or just CF & PR? Is the max price $1.50 or $1.55? Are we betting 1x4 or 1x6?

Also Michael, how is the original Don Scott system of (1) Rated $1.50 or less & (2) Last Start 1 or 2, going?

Thanks for your clarification. As always your input on this forum is most appreciated.

Tony