And Spinney got up for third for a lovely div of $5.20 best tote.

Well done Topsy99

Maybe it would be better to only consider the last say 4 years of the horses career?

Cheers
Twodogs

Doomben race 6 no 9 Plain Magic was the only horse I could see that qualified as a black type in the race and it won at $10 top fluc

Twodogs

ref last 4 years.
 

i use the years as a divider. i divide the total by the last year that the horse qualified. if it is in the last year then 1.
had a couple of good divs like any system these can be subjective
scored with sanderson and luckily spinney featured. i also backed jordan valley for place only. i back spinney on its hawkesbury cup win and last start lost my money but it has a good record and trainer.
i suppose you checked mustard with 35 points. but couldnt make myself back a 12 year old. kicked myself last time it won as well.
poor odds on some seesawing and chekvadatze (hard to spell)
but good horses and very convincing.
I hope you see the principle of what i do. cuts the action a bit but maybe concentrates the money particularly if you are a good judge.
a good one got up in hobart today dream pedlar at 18/1 7 point and placed int he hobart cup a couple of starts back i have tidied up that program and can put up some on the blog if any one is interested. it will either make things better or make things worse. but one of my biggest failures has been trying too hard to back a winner. e.g. touching horses when i am looking for a bit rather than being patient.

Evening Topsy,

Am very interested in anything that will help the grey matter whether that be examples with points or anything else you can add as food for thought as it is all very much appreciated.

Twodogs

Yes I did and I watched the race in amazement!! Goes against what we are told is smart!! Backing old horses!

Twodogs

In this race Topsy Conquering had scored more points, what made you look at Dream Pedlar?

Cheers
Twodogs

Yes Topsy

Your looking for the Class horses of the race and only those that have qualified as black type horses.

Cheers
Twodogs

this is faith or obvious
 

re dream pedlar. I look for longshots. here is my calculation.
both horses qualified in the last year.

points divided by 10 multiplied by price

conquering 29/10*2.6 = 7.54
dream pedlar 7/10*18 = 12.6
the value was in dream pedlar.

conquering at $2.60 is of no use to punters like me.
dream pedlar at 18/1 is challenging.

see where the judgement comes in and possibly the risk and greed
I am wrong as often.
The calculation favors horses greater than 10/1

Thanks Topsy for the explanation!!

Makes sense what you say and the bigger divs make up for the lower strike rate I am sure.

Do you find the approach performs better in black type races or in lower class?

Twodogs

in black type there is more competition but higher prices.
and also when the good ones are firing the odds arent that great for the winners. patience is important over the recent times i recall some big winners e.g. douro valley won a group 1 with 27 points and paying $38. no form but reasonably fresh. maldivian won the cox plate 35 points.
course there are disappointments when they do nothing but i find that even when i think the form is good and have high expectations they let you down.
so in general over a long period of time e.g. 20 years i havent found one system more superior to others in strike rates except that black type horses tend to get up when the barrier is right at good odds. i recall mr orient winning two in a row in brisbane recently at good odds was placed at list level in 3/08 18/1/ listed horse from barrier was was good then won next start at double figures from wide barrier.
I find Adelaide and Perth hard to win at form seems to taper off quickly e.g. horses are often not good for more than one year and then reduced to the odd win. this is why i look for good odds i also think trainers are targeting a decent price. Getting repeat winners in hobart in recent times is scarce as hens teeth.I did back Danleigh 59 points when he won the manikato stakes group 1 from barrier 1. Its a hard game and I find mid-week racing to be fraught with danger and virtually am inactive these days during the week although i do the print out. monday and tuesday rarely returns a winner.
dont forget the test. points/10*price/year often this calculation will put the value down fairly low unless the odds are good or or the listed points are good.