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-   -   Place Method? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20648)

michaelg 26th October 2010 03:41 PM

Raven, yes I did some time ago, and also with the fave in D.Scott's market, but neither showed promise for each-way betting.

However, this was over a very short period of time. Now that you mention it I might have another look. Are you suggesting they might be a filter?

If so, the top-rated horse in the 12 Month rating and also the BRR rating quite often are not very high in the market, and this might eliminate a good-priced winner/placegetter, but its still something to look at.

jackact 27th October 2010 08:17 AM

Michaelg,

Thank you very much for opening my eyes to the usefulness of the 12 month Don Scott rating on R&S. I had played with the R&S weight ratings previously, but had not noticed how good the 12 months rating seems to be as an assessment of class.

Your current use of this 12 months figure, filtered by 11 or fewer days since last run, may or may not produce long term POT (we all still hope it does, of course). Nevertheless, I think you have proved the worth of the 12 month rating. Perhaps other filters may produce better POT. I am playing with taking all horses within 2.0gs of the top rating, and then applying filters such as exactly 14 days since last run, or a pattern from a horse's last spell which matches its previous successful racing pattern – e.g., if its previous campaign pattern was x088312, then I would wait until 4th up next time.

Again, thanks heaps for the insight into how to make the most of the R&S ratings.

Jackact

michaelg 27th October 2010 11:28 AM

Hi, Jackact.

Hoping you are successful with it, in spite of yesterday's dismal results.

There were no winners or placegetters from yesterday's six selections. Hopefully it was just one of those days...

Today's selections are:

Ascot
3/4
4/2 (3.5 points gap between the next selection)
7/4
8/10

Bendigo
8/3

Gawler
5/3

enjay 27th October 2010 01:17 PM

Hi Michaelg.

I have been following with interest.

Just wondering why Bendigo mR 9 # 9 8588 LADY PAMELA does not fit the bill. ???

Cheers Enjay.

michaelg 27th October 2010 02:50 PM

Hi, Enjay.

It has equal points with no.15 which is currently the TAB fave.

Interestingly, you have probably noticed D.Scott has priced it at $701, and it is $50 in the Tele market. It makes one wonder how the 12 Month rankings are calculated, especially as you have pointed out that its placings from its last four runs is 8588. It must have been running in high-classed races.

It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

michaelg 28th October 2010 12:11 PM

Another bad day yesterday. From the six selections there was one winner of $4.40 and three placegetters for a total return of $4.50.

Two selections today:

Gold Coast R6 no.3
Seymour R5 no.4.

michaelg 28th October 2010 08:07 PM

A good day - both selections won for a return of $9.40 for the Win and $3.20 for the Place.

Since Sunday there have been 15 selections for four winners for a profit of $8.00, but a loss of $3.90 for the Place.

michaelg 29th October 2010 11:28 AM

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
7/5

Goulburn
1/3

Ipswich
4/3

Moonee Valley
3/6
6/7

michaelg 30th October 2010 11:05 AM

From yesterday's five selections there were no winners, but two placegetters for a return of $7.40

Today's selections are:

Ascot
2/22
8/13

Ballina
7/13

Dombeen
6/1

Dubbo
5/4
6/8

Flemington
6/4

Newcastle
4/8

Rosehill
8/2

Toowoomba
1/7

Taralgon
5/2

There are quite a few huge outsiders.

Bhagwan 30th October 2010 11:46 AM

Here is a place staking approach that can work well on the right selections.

$100 Bank.
First bet 1 unit.

Bet increases to 2 units after a success & reduces by .50 unit after after a loss.
Example.
1.00 w
2.00 L
1.50 L
1.00 w
2.00 w
2.00 ect.


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