Welcome Bluegumby,

Good luck with the selections!

Hi Shaun, How did you go?

I notice that Black Caviar is actually ranked 3rd on the NR neural rankings but top in most of the other columns and lowest DIV on the spreadsheet and of course 100 rated on Unitab.

Grand Duels is ranked highest and then Warm Love.

How does that works peoples?

I've lost confidence in the Neurals if a horse as good as Black Caviar is only ranked 3rd on that column.

I think I might use the CP column for my favourites thread instead of the neurals.

Black Caviar is rannked thrid because of 2 columns.

See form guide below for those interested.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/f...meetingid=15751

It as a rating of 1 for CF and 1 for TIM. The two above it have 40+ in both these columns. This is where understanding what the neural's are trying to measure can help greatly. CF is measuring runs this preparation. Black caviar is returning from a spell thus 1. Personally I think you need to check the first up form here and make adjustments. Black Caviar is 4 from 4 first up. TIM on the other hand is a hit and miss variable that I can't understand when they update and when they don't. I suggest its times this prep as well though.

If you want those not affected by a spell use the following settings only.
CP, JA, JT, TA, BP, CRS, DIS, $,

Using these and setting the others to 0 Black Caviar is the top rater with 290. next closest is 179.

Hope that exaplins it.

The NR value is just a combination of all the other variables (added up).

doesnt look a good day for first set of selections. would look alot better minus the <8 runners race. neural/ds always seems to miss out on them (maybe not enough data for a accurate rating)

tomorrow selections

doomben
r2. 4
r5. 5

flemington
r6. 7

gold coast
r4. 6

morph
r3. 3
r4. 3

newcastle
r5. 1

rosehill
r6. 1

toowomba
r1. 1

Profitable LAY angle?
 

I've been following this thread with great interest. Wesmip has always has been worth listening to IMO.

Speaking of various filters I have been playing around with a lay system which revolves around Days Since Last Win (DLW). Looking at it through R&S.

1. 300+ Days since last win
2. Horse API is lower than race API
3. ??
4. ??
5. Betfair price is under $8 but not starting favourite.

I've left a couple of rules to myself but results since Jan 1st are:

Ave Odds:	$6.30
Selections	97
Losers:	88
%	91%

Would be interested to here thoughts on this one and possible suggestions. (sorry if this is thread hijack)

The Ocho,

I hear what your saying but these things happen,my ratings didnt have it on top either,i know the reasons why and im comfortable with it,basicly you cant have a ratings approach that produces winners at decent odds that also rates every short priced favorite highly.

Its not possible.

All we need to ask ourselves is are the ratings we are using providing an edge and helping us into profit?

I have you with a (1 - 9/97)-(9/97*6.3) = 0.90 - 0.58 = 0.32 positive expectation.

That means before commissions you are getting 0.32 for every dollar staked long term.

If it holds up over more bets its a pretty good system.

Hi Wesmip,

How is your original contribution to this thread performing ?

And what are the figures with the addition of last start run unplaced?

Cheers
Jimmy

This is showing since 15th Feb : 113 bets for a unitab return of $112.50
Imagine you were betting betfair or best tote, that 50c loss becomes a nice profit.

If you incude unplaced overall the figures show a 8.7% profit but you drop the bets to 1/5 of action.

Interesting wesmip,

Thanks this is a great platform to play around with some filters