OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Doomben Race 6 1. Azzaland $1.82 $5.34 6. Craiglea Falcon $9.97 Doomben Race 7 2. Celtic Dancer $3.33 5. River Lad $5.38 Morphettville Race 5 3. Condelago $4.28 7. Excluded $4.68 Morphettville Race 6 2. Pinwheel $2.38 9. Valentine Miss $8.05 Morphettville Race 7 4. Nakaaya $3.71 1. Lady Lynette $4.89 Randwick Race 1 4. Satirical Boy $2.36 2. Exceed And Exalt $4.04 Randwick Race 4 2. Sea Lord $2.70 10. Lucha Libre $5.55 $16.80 Randwick Race 5 10. New Day Rising $4.28 11. Our Billy Blue $5.84 Randwick Race 6 1. Shamrocker $3.42 2. Brazilian Pulse $4.35 Randwick Race 7 1. More Joyous $3.24 13. Pureness $6.02 Randwick Race 8 13. Thankgodyou'rehere $4.95 5. Avenue $5.08

Bordertown Race 5 6. Little Adam $4.15 7. Back Tracks $4.54 Cranbourne Race 6 13. Torrefy $2.94 4. Tully Dreamer $6.72 Hamilton Race 7 11. Annie's A Gem $4.56 6. Our Aristocrat $4.70 Pinjarra Race 8 3. Speccio $3.59 14. Wolfe Dreams $4.06 Sunshine Coast Race 7 9. Craiglea Blondie $3.08 7. Irishkiwi $4.99 Wagga Race 4 1. Happy Finish $3.82 4. Tarrabandra $4.17 Wagga Race 6 1. Universal Pack $4.65 11. Rocky Cod $5.33

Shaun, hope you don't mind me commenting on your thread, but it is meant to be constructive criticism, and I hope you take it that way.

A horse's strike rate is the number of times he wins as against the number of times he races, expressed as a percentage, so if a horse wins 8 times from 24 starts his strike rate is 33.3%.

A punter's strike rate is no different, except that his strike rate is the number of times he wins compared to the number of bets he has. In your case, according to your posts you (would) have had 18 winners from 98 bets for a (gross) return of $89.73 which translates to;

Strike Rate of 18.36%
Average price of winners $4.99

So lets say on 100 bets, your situation would be....

Outlay $100
Return 19 (should be 18, but I'm being generous) x $4.99 = $94.81 for a loss of $5.19 or a little over 5%. (Mind you, most mug punters would be overjoyed if they only lost 5%.)

What you have to do then is either increase your strike rate (per bet!) or get longer priced winners. Easier said than done, but if you continue to delude yourself that your strike rate is twice what it is in reality, you're kidding yourself.

Also, what is your understanding of Kelly Staking? Mine is that if you're not making a profit at level stakes, the Kelly can't help you, but what it does do if you are showing a profit on level stakes is calculate what percentage of your bank you should bet to maximise profits.

Anyone else care to comment?

Gerry