No worries, I used to be like that but now I keep records to get a better handle on what is happening and to see if I can identify areas to improve. I tried to determine if this system would work better on different days of the week but so far there is no indication that this will actually work. The results are purely mathematical so I doubt there will ever be any kind of pattern to it.
Cheers, Mat. |
Hi mattio and beton. If you don't keep stats, how do you know what has and hasn't worked (although I suppose if your balance is going up or down would give you some idea)? But if you're trying several things then you could easily lose track.
IMHO records should be kept so that, if you're like me, you can then remember you were laying the fourth fav twice removed last spring and it didn't work before trying the same thing again this 4th of July. :) Anyway, the Bhagwan's system for April was good however the last 10 days or so of April the system was just treading water. I didn't continue the system as I went looking for something else, which I didn't find, and then got warned by BF to only bet the minimum $5 (which I think sucks s%!t). Unfortunately by that stage I didn't have any money left to bet $5 a pop. :( So it's back to trading for me until I can get enough moolah to try again. Stats for Bhagwan's system for April 2011 Start Bank $100 Bot Final Total $157.78 (Highest $159.78 on 19/4/11) Betfair Final Total (after commission) $151.05 (Highest $154.69 on 19/4/11) 29 Days 100 Bets 24 Winners 82.7% Daily S/R 24% Betting S/R 51% POT (for Betfair Total commission deducted) |
Finally back on track for the UK races!! Winner in the first race, still leaves me about 2 units behind on the UK races for the month but its all smiles for me right now after the horror run the last 4 nights :)
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Ocho
I like you and everybody else am looking for a system that you can set up and forget. Is there such an animal? I know so. There are thousands of bookmakers out there that is testament to that. This 3rd in six is a winner. It needs a bot to make it happen. Otherwise you need to be sitting at the computor all day. Mathematically the system works. I am waiting for Mat's bot to run with the system because I believe it works better on the tote than betfair. Laying the field SP as per Chrome Prince is another winner, this could be improved by laying within a price range. I have been testing a lay system laying the top 3 favs SP to a price range and backing the fav for a target. Mathematically it shows a good return. This showed great promise until the bot started multiple betting on the SP layers. I had 14 different times this occured with the last time laying a winner 6 times. I believe it only stopped laying because it exhausted the funds in that account. Cheesed me off because I thought that buying a bot these things could be more controlable. With me I spent my life having to do paperwork. Now either the money is coming out or you are pouring money in. I do not want to trade one job for another job. I am aware that there are winning days and losing days, but if the winning days don't outstrip the losers then you have an expensive hobby. If you are breaking even then you only have a hobby. The maths show that given the right method of getting there then there is $500 per 100 races. I just have to sort out the right bot. Beton |
Hi Beton,
The bot is still in development, our plan is to have it ready for beta testing by the middle of July. It will only run in Simulation mode during the testing, we will do live testing ourselves until we are satisfied it is safe to use for others. I'll definitely let you (and the others who have expressed interest) know when it is ready. Cheers, Mat. |
Thanks Mat
The month has only just begun. Ocho' s results showed 50% Personnally I think anything over 25% is windfall and take it gracefully. Beton |
Hi Mattio,
Seeing that you wish to build your own Bot, you probable aware that they often do updates & when they do this ,it will throw your Bot out , so unless you are linked up to their updates , you will have to re-program it all over again it. I have found the UK races have the same SR as Aust races. The UK prices can be excellent. $9.00 winner 1st race tonight in a 5 horse event. One does not need many in this price range to recover any short falls. One should expect the odd run of out , that is to be expected for any percentage SR range , so please make oneself aware of the theoretical run of outs to expect, at some stage ,using the expected percentage SR. One also has to accept that there will be times where it feels like its treading water, but all level stakes plans go through that , this is normal as well as frustrating , but that's level stakes betting for ya. I tend to look at the figures on a monthly basis, it feels less frustrating that way. If one is trying to find a pattern , well there isn't one really. Different folk will get different selections at times, depending when & where the price are taken, but overall the SR tends to pan out much the same over 100 bets. If one is targeting Aust & UK I feel its a strong idea to bet 1% of bank on a ratchet basis reset when say 50% profit is made. I find it less frustrating this way. You will be able to sleep at night if you have a run of say 25 outs in a row, which can happen, with most systems targeting this price range. It rarely happens with this plan but it can happen, so be prepared. I have found that it tends to recover to a new bank high fairly quickly , especially when a result is had in the first two races, so hang in there. |
Hi mattio. I'm not sure if I've expressed interest in your TAB bot in the past (I'm sure I would of) but count me in. :)
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Yes I am aware of all this and it will be taken care of. Ocho, I remember you expressed an interest before mate so no problems there. Beton, I'll happily take 10% on a set and forget system, anything over that is a bonus. Cheers, Mat. |
Disappointing result today, bot placed a bet on Awi Acting in Race 2 at Gosford as bet 5 in the sequence but it wasn't matched which resulted in a full loss for me today instead of maybe a small loss or profit......bummer :(
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