Betfair laying
 

Rules call for a minimum $30 liability, so using that 10:30 ratio you would have to lay the fave to lose $30 and the others to lose $90.

Gerry

Fred
Thanks
I have done a bit more breakdown on this. Backing the fav has a slight benefit when the fav is under $2 but a definate disadvantage over $2.
The majority of the races are in the $2 to $3.50 range. Beton

... more info

If the range is $2.00 $3.50 then the profit is $284.09.

Can I suggest another 2 rules???

a) Do not sit in front of the computer and watch!
b) Review results on a weekly basis!

.. I would enjoy it but it is a roller coaster ride - and I think you are on a winner with this one. Fred

-$131.75 today for laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab.

I can't see how this can be working 4legs and beton.

Gerry, you're right but I was just trying something that could be bet on one bot and that came out roughly even should the 1st fav win and that ratio seemed to be the one as the losses have only been small when the 1st fav won.

I'm only doing it in simulation mode and don't actually have any money to do it in real mode but thought I'd give it a go but the losses are outstripping the gains so not sure what others are doing that I'm not doing.

Right lets look at the figures.
Lay the top 3 to $30 liability. For this exercise we assume the 2nd fav at $4 (about average) and the third fav at $6(ditto)
Top fav $2
1st wins then -$30 + $10 + $6 we lose -$14.
2nd wins then -$30 + $30 + $6 we are +$6
3rd wins then -$30 +$30 + $10 we gain +$10
4th plus wins we gain +$30 +$10 +$6 = +$46
At $2 the strike rates are 42% 20% and 13% respectfully.
Thus per 100 races we lose -$588 on the fav, but gain +$120 on the 2nd and +$130 on the 3rd and we have 4th plus at 25% thus we gain +$1150. Total gain $812. With similar working this is +$1227 at $1.50, +$1175 at $1.70, $521 at $2.50, $418 at $3.00, +$453 at $3.50, +$465 at $4.00 and +$337 at $4.50. Race weighted the average should be about $500 per 100 races. Please note that at $2.50 you lose on the three top favs laying but have a 30% SR with the 4th plus.

Bhagwan HELP Please what settings would you use with Betbotpro with this method.
Thanks Beton

Hi Beton,
If using BetBotPro

You are saying that your bot is making random bets, that are out of your control if so , it sounds like the program needs re-downloading.
It sounds like the set up program was not saved to Desktop first, before extracting files.

Make sure you have the licence number they emailed to you.
Then re-download from the members section.
Make sure you Save the Download program to say Desktop or Documents first, before extracting files, otherwise the program wont work properly.
I would then go to Desktop to open then do the Extracting of files, just to make sure things work.
Make sure you delete the existing program totally , that includes the recycle bin.
If you have any issues , contact Mark at BBP

Use these settings to make sure all your 3 selections get matched.

Set box at bottom 1st Fav
Set box underneath 3 (targeting 3 runners)

Max No. of bets 3
Min No. of bets 3
This means the bets will only go on if all 3 are matched.

Adjusted Bet Ticks +4 (if Laying) (-4 if Backing)
This is used to allow for any drop in prices as the bets are going on at the same time.

EXTRAS (In Actions box at top LHS) 1st Fav <= 4.00
This will now only target races where the Fav is <=4.00

Thanks Bhagwan
I will do this tomorrow. This is then laying to a liability but not SP. How many seconds would you recommend and what bank would be required. winners losers and max win and loss would have to be disabled??
beton

Min/Max winners & losers can be disabled by setting to 0

Set market % to approx 107%
You don't want to be betting in any markets greater than this if multi-betting.

Bank should be 40 x Liability
So one does not get cold feet during the betting process.
e.g. $30 x 40 = 1200 bank

Reset Liab if we lose 30%

Set Stop loss at 30% of bank (optional)

Profit objective 2-5% of bank.

Seconds till jump - I will leave that up to you .
Usually its 20 secs & less.

Min/ Max runners .
I use 12-23 if multi-bet laying.

Hi Ocho - my figures were based on BSP results so I would expect a variation when doing actual figures as there would be firmers and drifters which would move in and out of the target range in the last few seconds. However I would expect this to be a good guide.

In relation to yesterday it was not a good day, and the BSP results showed a $58.68 Loss. Even with the BSP results it showed large swings on a daily basis. I should be able to pull out the daily totals so I will post those later today.

Fred

If we could all lay at Tote prices we'd make a fortune. But I'm pretty sure $2 shots on betfair don't win 42% of the time, remember a $2 shot on BF would be odds-on on the totes. Not saying you won't find an edge in your favour either, but expect a wild ride.