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-   -   Testing Place System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22252)

michaelg 22nd August 2011 11:38 AM

Correction - there are no selections today because the "selection" quoted is not numbered between TAB nos. 1 to 4.

It lost - might be a good Lay system?

AngryPixie 22nd August 2011 03:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
That's always done my head in, on one hand you have the "experts" telling you that the only way to win is to get VALUE, i.e obtain a price that is greater than the horses true chance of winning, and on the other hand being told that backing firmers is the way to go? which means that you are accepting the opposite (in most cases)


Poop

What I don't hear from people who do there own ratings is how accurate they are? Do the $3 shots hit 33.34% of the time? What about the even's chances? Do they win 50% of the time? You get my drift.

Would be interested to hear from anybody who has a large ratings data set.

Sorry Michael going a bit off track here.

Chrome Prince 23rd August 2011 01:17 AM

I've never seen any ratings that can beat the bookies final prices.
That is however, all races, all starters.
I await eagerly the day someone, anyone, can offer something which challenges this.

michaelg 23rd August 2011 10:10 AM

Today's selections are:

Townsville
1/4
5/4
6/2

Vortech 24th August 2011 07:12 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I've never seen any ratings that can beat the bookies final prices.
That is however, all races, all starters.
I await eagerly the day someone, anyone, can offer something which challenges this.

Chrome you have enlighted me so much with your approach. The difficult assessment although is how to pre-select your bets in the fixed market or alike. Where do you gather your opening prices from? And do you use betfair for fluctulations?

Any stats you have on market movements I would love to here

michaelg 24th August 2011 10:07 AM

From yesterday's three selections there were two winners paying a total of $11.90 for the Win and $3.60 for the Place. The third selection ran fourth.

Two selections today:

Eagle farm
3/2
6/1

Bhagwan 24th August 2011 10:17 AM

Impressive results with some good win divs Michael.

Well done,

michaelg 25th August 2011 10:15 AM

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner paying $2.60, and both placed paying $2.70.

Today's selections:

Morphetville
2/4
7/3

Rocky
4/2

MrFugly 25th August 2011 12:06 PM

Excellent results Michaelg, has the max distance requirement of 1400 metres been dropped?

Yesterday, Eagle Farm R3-2, 1840 metres?

Thanks for another great system idea.

Cheers, MrFugly.

michaelg 25th August 2011 02:04 PM

MrFugly, I think only a handsome person would give himself such a name as yours.

I don't apply any restrictions with the distance. Checking the results since 20/8, Win and Place betting are showing a profit for distances both under and over 1,400 metres. However, in my records I do identify the distance to see if there's an advantage.

A good result so far today. One selection has been run (M'ville 2/4). It won paying $4.00 and $1.40


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