OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - System of the Year For 2011.

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Big claim to be system of the year for 2011.

Would like to see why.

I'm not a berfair person nor a layer, but a couple of recent glories does not a summer make ..... let alone system of the year.

stats .... beaten favourites, and favourite this time ..... have been claimed to have a 14% S/R on here, and a 35% S/R at a well known mag. Stats eh? .....

Code:


DARKY: 03/12/2011 WAGGA 
R 6 # 2 192x HEAD OVER     WON $5.00           
DARKY: 03/12/2011 TOOWOOMBA 
R 1 # 6 67x1 CHARMING BAY  WON $8.54
R 3 # 2    2 SAVAGE               WON $18.73
DARKY: 03/12/2011 SCONE 
R 7 # 5 421x MAGASIN     2ND
DARKY: 03/12/2011 MORPHETTVILLE 
AR 2 # 2 1241 IMPERIAL FURY UNP  
AR 8 # 1 25x2 BIT OF A DUDE UNP     
DARKY: 03/12/2011 GOLD COAST 
R 3 # 4 25x2 QUIZETTE  2ND
DARKY: 03/12/2011 EAGLE FARM 
R 1 # 1  331 OPTIONALITY 2ND
R 5 # 1 11x2 ROCKET TO GLORY  UNP
DARKY: 03/12/2011 CRANBOURNE
R 3 # 2 3432 LITTLE HOPE 3RD        
DARKY: 03/12/2011 ASCOT 
R 1 # 2 16x2 DE LATTE UNP     
R 4 # 3 2162 THE ENTOURAGE 2ND

Backing:
Outlay 12 units
Return 32.27
Profit 20.27
POT 168.92%

There you go.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UselessBettor

I need another 3 weeks of data though before I incorporate it into a live test with small bets. If it goes well I'll share the results and twist.

Thanks UB,
I'd be very interested in your findings.

Chrome Prince, system of the year 2011 proven through one days results ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

Chrome Prince, system of the year 2011 proven through one days results ?

Barney unless I'm wrong (again) he disproved the system.

Isn't it supposed to be a lay system?
I'm confused!

Well, I haven't actually proved anything.
But it's pretty clear that as a lay system, it's found wanting because there are no price filters and no form filters.
There are plenty of first uppers and from my data, it just doesn't add up to an edge.
Because of the nuts and bolts of it, I still stick with my idea, that it is a better backing system than a lay system.

But nothing has been proven either way - yet.

System of the year ha.
Thank you for that great honour Darky and I would like to thank my Mother and my Father and to thank God.

Its funny how not many of the 2.20-5.00 shots don't seem to win.
One would naturally think that they would have a distinct edge over their rivals.

Originally Posted by Bhagwan
RULES
<=1010m
Delete any odds on fav races. (<=2.00)

Won LS , first one we come to , working from top down list of runners.

Look for LSW first.

If no LS Winners then target LS 2nds.

Delete any resumers.

Laying Price 2.20-5.00

If the first one we come to going down the list is greater than 5.00 then its a no bet race, when Laying
The majority will usually be <=5.00
They are nearly always over bet to their actual chance of winning .

Remember to ignore any resumers, if laying.

Most of the selections will be around the 3.00-3.50 mark

Ocho did a test on this plan for a month & it did show a profit, if backing, of 17% POT but that was mainly due to a couple of larger prices getting up.
Anything 2.20-5.00 showed a substantial loss if backing.

Resumers with form figure of 1x
Actually show a profit of +27% POT
37.5% SR
Price 2.20+
Must be 1st or 2nd Favs.

There is no way this LAY system shows a profit for WIN betting folks.

In the meantime the smart LAY punters will line their pockets for a lot of Xmas cheer.

Cheers
darky

Chrome .
No mention in the original rules was made of starts before a spell.

No one in their right minds would even consider a horses form from their last preparaion without 2 or 3 stsrts in this preparation

I stand by my results.
Cheers
darky

Bunbury
Race 8 H 8
Goulburn
Race 2 H 1
Race 6 H 3
Murray Bridge
Race 2 H 3