Can't resist (I know its futile)

The answer is it doesn't matter really as your selections have a S/R that will always even out over time no matter what the method of selection including chucking a dart.

So whether you bet one a day, ten a day, place every second bet stood on head,and every 4th one with your fist in yer ear', the S/R will always stay the same (over time) see; someone forgot to tell your next nag to win cos the last one you bet on got beat, or visa versa, etc etc.

Having said that, it doesn't do any harm but you should be aware that you are not changing anything by going home early, other than putting a smile on someones' face!! maybe!

10 races

Your pick may win all of them.
Your pick may win some of them.
Your pick may win none of them.

Whatever the strike rate, any of the above can be true.

Stop at a winner in the above scenarios:

You lose profit by stopping
You are square by stopping.
You lose by not stopping because there was no winner.

In other words, under the scenario your pick may win some of them, it looks better to stop, and usually scenario 2 will be the norm.
It's the outliers that kill you because, you have given away profit to compensate when stopping when they all win.
Hence there is absolutely no way you will make up the losses when they all lose.

It's another furphy produced by the mind.
One tends to remember how many times you were in front and then ended up losing.
One doesn't remember the times every one of them lost, because they happen less often.

There are only two circumstances where stopping is advantageous.

1) there are discipline or chasing problems.
2) your edge is actually in the earlier races, whether recognised or not.

It's quite simple to simulate this in excel via sorting of results.

It's also a bit like trading ticks on Betfair, one tick a day for 30 days, on the 31st day there is a late scratching and the market moves wildly in the opposite direction, you lose 40 ticks!
For thirty days you feel like stopping is the thing to do, on the 31st day...you feel sick.

I know it's not the same as betting, but the principle is the same.

As i have said - its just delays the inevitable when you knock off early

that's what i was saying and trying to get through
thanks god someone else understands also

:oops:

Nothing like a robust discussion.

The "system" had a terrible day today getting stopped out at -$46.08 (it only barely got into the black today). Letting it go lost -$63.42 for the whole day's betting (at $5 a pop).

So after 8 days stopping at $25 = +$124 (7 winning days & 1 losing day)
Letting it go after 8 days -$19 (4 winning & 4 losing days)

This sort of shows the system, when letting it ride, isn't much chop while stopping it while in profit is currently in front by another 2 1/2 bad days ($50 trailing stop) but still not much chop.

Hi Ocho,
I feel you are on the right track with the $50 Stop loss.

Allowing for 10 straight losses in a row.

This also allows for some more races to be run if there are some winners in between.

Your selection plan seems to be OK.

If one wishes for greater SR, I feel one would have to target lower prices or take 2 Horses a race.

But I feel the end result will be much the same.

"what do we do now Tonto ?"

Thats the question asked of Tonto by The Lone Ranger.

Tonto's reply was....

'What you mean WE White Man"

Meant to read...

"what do we do now Tonto ?"

Thats the question asked of Tonto by The Lone Ranger, when they where were surrounded by hostile Indians.

Tonto's reply was....

'What you mean WE White Man"

how did it finish up

there's your answer

Bahgwan, Funny you should say that just at this time.
I was looking for something unrelated in my files and came across this research I've done some time ago.

Fav in races with 6 or less runners win 42.1% LOT 12.7%

> 6 and <=9 35.2% LOT 12.7%
> 9 and <=12 30.9% LOT 12.4 probably due higher divs
>12 and <= 16 27% LOT 19.5%

Field sizes and odds DO matter and I find my own rating performs best in the 10 to 14 field size.

The prices were the official starting prices that come with the form download, so I assume the bookies' stating prices.