I think if you go and start picking and choosing races you will erode the natural strike rate of the fav runner.

It was a pretty funny day for Favs in general today. (Thur 26th Apr)

There were large runs of outs for favs 3.00+

Funny ahh.

This is what can happen where the Favs have been running hot for a while & the stats tend to balance themselves out with days like this.

Don't be too surprised if it repeats itself tomorrow.

Its not a bad idea to sit it out, until it evens out a bit, if chasing the Favs.

If one is using a Bot , set it into Sim mode & let it run to do its thing.

It comes back to the fact that Horse racing is not an exact science .
It just gives us the impression that it can be ,with the patterns that it presents and the static yearly percentages, that rarely change.


The 3rd Favs have had a very torrid run lately , now watch to see a number start getting up with horrible form , to get to its historic average of 15%

The same with 2nd favs.

The stats will not be denied

That's why i only will bet Favorites in my ratings at certain tracks.

I posted an article several weeks ago about this,
Some tracks are almost double the L.O.T. compared to normal,
Others are half the loss some almost break even.

At the really bad tracks eg Mornington in certain circumstances,
I will just dutch bet the next 2-3-4 in the market.

Especially when the favorite is =>$3.0 on a rain affected track.

Have no real explanation as to why some tracks are better for Fav's,
Than others ,Townsville has a small pool of horses that race there.
Albury usually attract large fields who knows?.

All that matter is it continues to happen this is possibly one way,
Of determining why there are good and wipeout days for Fav's.

Doesn't mean it's the be all end all just one possible theory,
To consider that's all.

Cheers.

Hi Garyf,

I remember you posting the tracks, however I can't seem to find your post.

If you have a moment, could you possibly post them again? I'd very much appreciate it and will save them this time.

The Schmile

I posted a similar list regarding neurals performance at certain tracks.

I generally bet Provincial Tracks and Most Metro (no NSW or SA or Belmont)

Country Tracks provide the worst results, followed surprisingly by Metro Tracks (although skewed towards a few tracks) and then Provincial track perform best and on the main racing days as alluded to previously.

It makes sense to me .

Punters handicap Horses.

Why not Handicap Racetracks.

The percentages are there to do it.

Hi T.S.

ROCK HARD (DALE)
Post=22+26.
Only some tracks are listed as a guide to the point i was making.

I agree Stix it certainly is one way of improving ones p.o.t.
And strike rates when applying a selection technique
Whatever that person may use (Ratings Form Mechanical etc).

"Handicapping a track" good use of words Bhags.

Cheers.

Cheers Garyf,

Have a great day tomorrow!

The Schmile

Thursday was a particularly good day for me laying favourites, in fact one of the best. Today, it evened out again.
I am expecting a pretty poor strike rate from favourites on Saturday, but I could be wrong.

Thursday was 33.30%
Today was 35.50%

Hi Schmile
Can you please explain the math here to get 72.5%SR over the 3 bet series?
Thanks in advance.