Chrome Prince,

Thanks for the friendly advice.

My own analysis has provided a pretty good direction concerning the merits of using win % as a filter if combined with current form (last five starts).

The correlation is between the career win strike rate and the win strike rate over the last five starts.

I am now combining in place % to refine it further making it more robust.


LB

Sounds good.

Actually I have been looking at similar theories

Applying Malcolm Knowles Power Of Ten staking system theory to that of Horse Form.

So it's not the staking plan I'm looking at, rather the theory behind it, to rate recent form.

I ran this through the last 10 mnths.

RULES
Ranked No.1 Av.Prz. Money
Won Last Start
Win SR of 51-100%
Pre-Post Newspaper price $3.10-5.50
Must be TAB 1st or 2nd Fav 1 min before jump, regardless of it`s TAB price.

Metro races , any day of the week.
46.7% SR win
34% POT

Sat only Metro
50% SR
60% POT
Approx 8 bets a month, if betting Sat only.

60% P.O.T. ????

Bhagwan, my figures are massively different to yours.

Based on your rules...

Sat Metro
selections 155
Winners 56
Strike Rate 36.13%
Profit -$.30
Profit On Turnover -
0.19%

Am I missing something?

:eek:

I forgot to click my following screen, I`ll try again.

RULES
1)Metro Sat S,M,B,A,P
2)51%-100% Win SR
3)Pre-Post newspaper market $3.10-5.50
4)Won last start
5)Going- Fast, Good, Dead.
6)Last start 5-75 days
7)Barriers 1-11
:cool:Hcp Wt. 58kg.
9)Actual Wt. carried 58kg.
10)Field size 8-14
11)Has to be 1st. or 2nd TAB Favs. 1 min before jump.

50% SR
60% POT
Approx 4-5 bets a month

That weight factor should read 58kg & less.

Luckyboy,

In respect of the jockey change, I hope you noticed the strategic change of jockey in Melb Race8 No 3 Sound Action,
previously ridden by very competent jockey, W Hokai, but replaced with L. Currie on this occasion.
It duly won, paying $2.80w $1.60pl but I was on and rec'd a good dividend.
The astute punter does not mis these opportunities.

Cheers.

Luckyboy,

I spoke to you recently about the strategic change of jockey steering us onto a potential top winning chance. I think I have identified one for you today:
SR3 No 1 Sea Jester
it has been well ridden by L Moloney in it's last two wins and he is now replaced by "the pumper" J. Cassidy- I would expect a bold showing.
Also, keep you eyes out for a runner at Echuca Race4 No 2 Ruby's Jester, scratched the other day to run at a minor meeting-we'll see how it goes.

I suppose the jockey replacement rule could also apply to :
SR3 No 9 Laminated
where L Beasley has replaced R Spokes, we'll se how it goes.

Cheers.

I hope you got on!
SR3 No1 Sea Jester 2nd $3.10pl
a very profitable race, even if Laminated was unplaced.

Cheers.