I guess technically you can.
Lets say i put 3 bets on the night before,
And i look at the results 24 hours later.
Technically you have won without looking at the market.

But that's not me.

Cheers.

RE POST=31.

iF THEY WIN AT A DIVIDEND GREATER THAN YOU OUTLAY.

Cheers.

Or you can set up a bot and just crunch nos,
By backing and laying is another way i guess.

Cheers.

It is unlikely that god's plan for the universe includesmaking you rich.


The older I get the more I see this is true.

Yes LG, but the strength or lack of it, of money for a horse is determined by how it has been performing, be it recent or otherwise, therefore PAST is king.

What about factors since the last run / rating,
Which remain unknown to us but not to those,
Who place $$$(or dont) on the nose before it jumps?

Eg condition on day of race

This is not about the past - all about the present,
And we can only get a hint of this via the price ie NOW,
Unless we are on track with clear-clever eyes?

LG

Not only that particular horse, but all the others over the years with similar form in a similar events too. HISTORY is the only guide we have.

Spot on B.

I also find it funny today when the boss commented to me about the Carlton v Collingwood match. He ask who I was backing.

I said Collingwood by the form.

He replied but your not going to look at how many times Carlton have won at that ground, the margin last start, the ground condition they played last time, the weight of Chris Judd and Swann. The coach of the sides. You do all this for horse racing.

Are these factors like Win % and Place % that we use iirelevant in more cases than none.

If HISTORY is the only guide we use,
Then we will forever be on the loosing side I feel.

You can forget all about Pareto!

More like 99/1 rule being,
99% of us loose in the long run because the clever 1% leverage off
a. readily available historical information better
b. additional info(=edge) unavailable to the 99%

The only path I see for us to move from 99 - 1% is in the MARKET = price movements which reflect what we know about past events, and what we don't.

Surely it is the BEST guide we have?

LG