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Vortech 17th August 2012 04:45 AM
[QUOTE=UselessBettor]
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

How is the 20% and the 3% overlay calculated? Is it calculated by the Max and Min range?

UselessBettor 17th August 2012 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
[QUOTE=UselessBettor]
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

How is the 20% and the 3% overlay calculated? Is it calculated by the Max and Min range?

I'll find the papers again and provide the link. It was in papers on the fav vs longshot bias but I have read so many research papers I can't tell you quickly which ones looked into it and which didn't.

I suggest reading as much as you can on the fav long shot bias and its movement over time. (it hardly exists on betfair for example).

Lord Greystoke 17th August 2012 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

Its the opporuntity to take advantage of mis pricing which is relevant and the general research done by people much smarter then me (uni professors, doctrate research) indicates that the range of mispricing has been reducing more and more but especially in the last 10 years.


So there is now a plethora of freely available real-time information, making the market for WIN betting much more transparent and efficient from a pricing perspective.

Would seem to indicate that bigger opportunities now lie in the multiples or an arbitrage angle of some kind?

LG

darkydog2002 20th August 2012 01:06 PM
Spot on Your Lordship.

The Ocho 20th August 2012 06:22 PM
With that 4 corners program last week I now realize why faves only win about 30% of the time - because the other races are rigged so that some outsider wins. No wonder just backing the fave doesn't work.

aussielongboat 25th August 2012 07:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
Would anyone bother to consistently seek out a horse that's had at least 5 runs this time in without winning, and a winning % of let's say near enough to 20%. I'd call these horses overdue for a win ...........


If its in a suitable race and the trainer has backed it up fairly quickly from its most recent start i would be all over it like a cheap suit

AngryPixie 25th August 2012 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aussielongboat
If its in a suitable race and the trainer has backed it up fairly quickly from its most recent start i would be all over it like a cheap suit


Even more so if it was in the market last start and failed.


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