Have been called Fred in my early days, but never Barny !

LG

LG, the original post sounds attractive to me. I work in Financial Planning, i'm 25 years old and had to watch as clients accounts stagnate or even in some cases go backwards over the last 3 and a half years since starting my job. Now compare that to starting with say $20,000 and your achieving 10% POT with turnover of 1x so basically your yielding 10%. Even just compounding that over 3 years you've now got $26,620 or made 33%. Find me anyone interested in wealth creation who would knock that back over 3 years, particularly the last 3 years.

Here's a short story of my very limited foray into the punting arena. I've always had an interest in horse racing, used to go to the trotts and dad would put on bets for me when i was 14 just as a laugh for $5. He's always been into punting and I guess thats where i've got it from. As I turned 18 i'd punt sometimes just by having a look at a horses recent form, or doing a trifecta or quaddie, basically having a crack at anything with no real system or ideas but just for a bit of fun. Obviously i was in the crowd who just threw away money but at least I enjoyed myself doing so.

Anyway once I started working 3.5 years ago I got into sports betting a bit and started having a greater understanding of how I could actually make some money. At this point I also started my own shares portfolio using research obtained through work and borrowing $2,000 from my parents. My sharemarket knowledge continued to increase while working and I think this is what fed my sportsbetting knowledge as I became more and more interested with systems, statistics and how they can influence your betting towards actually being profitable.

Last year I started taking it a little more seriously. It started with having some luck on southern speed which I had for the win and also the trifecta in the same race kicking my account up to $500. From there I would regularly chat to a mate who was really into sports betting. Every night we would talk about the following days NBA plays, discuss all the negatives and positives and lay our bets down. I also did some AFL betting on the side as i'm a keen supporter of the swans and watch probably 3-4 games a weekend. Between early November and February I managed to take my account from roughly $500 to $1,500. Thats where my poor discipline and mentatlity kicked in, I started thinking it was too easy and just putting any old bet on and talking less with my mate about the NBA plays and just doing whatever.

My account started to dwindle down and before I wasted it I took $1,000 out of my account and left $200 there as play money which I eventually lost as well.

All of this gets me to where I am today, using Shaun's spreadsheet i've managed to adapt it into my own ratings which i've found to be profitable given some relatively simply filters (Slow/Heavy, only bet overlays etc). I started betting it with real money about a month ago now, but it probably wasn't the best time to start as the end of the winter season has meant its performed poorly in more recent times. I'm still confident i'm on the right path though and will continue to follow my plays as I bet 1% bankroll and so it will take a huge run of outs to decimate my small bankroll. I continue to read LOTS about punting both on here and various other forums and currently looking at predicting NBA scores using various equations, checking correlations and other statistical functions. I haven't found an edge yet but its an enjoyable exercise for me and hopefully it will improve my sports betting.

I've now got $40k in shares with a further $10k in the bank looking to buy my own house. My aim is that eventually my punting becomes another investment stream that I can enjoy at the same time. Time will tell I guess. Sorry for the long post LG but figured it may be of interest to some. Once I started typing it just kind of flowed haha

evajb001...

Don't be sorry about the long post - will have to print it all out and put my monocle on, however!


Cheers LG

I like to hear people using the stuff i put up here, most of the sheets i provide are ones i have used or using.

good to know others find them useful as well, even if it is only to reuse the macros and code to create there own sheets, this is how i got started by using Kennedy's sheet on the method 260

Thats good shaun, i've been worried that you might get annoyed if everyone started using it but I figured you put it on here for a reason so you must not mind.

The one thing i'd like to integrate into my ratings is jockey and trainer adjustments, but i'm yet to find a decent way of doing this. If you have any suggestions shaun would love to hear them. Can provide my email address if thats a better way of communicating. Same goes for anyone on here, if they are interested in how I do things or other sports i'm looking at, forums i read etc and want to discuss privately I can give out my email address.

Top post mate, a refreshing does of reality in a virtual world crammed full of self-made legends! Doesn't smack of ego, just sharing part of your journey... a pleasant change to some of the heavy banter = hot air that gets puffed out in here on occasions (myself included, I would hazzard a guess lol)

Regards the 10% yield, past-present returns do not ever guarantee future performance (as you well know?). However, when I saw a simple solution to achieving such a result - it literally blew me over.

Hence my 'simple question' here, which was an attempt to gauge the value of such a discovery.

Your answer (from a different viewpoint) was possibly the best I could have asked for.

Much appreciated.

Cheers LG

LG

I agree with Beton regarding pie sizes.

I'm much more impressed with a 10% POT over 2000 bet's than a 10% profit over two. The former is much harder to achieve, and the later pretty simple really. You've obviously something your not telling us though as I'm not sure what the following means. :confused:


Here's a dump of real BF lay and back results (the BF bet number is shown) from a bot that's testing a completely automated zero effort "lay with stop loss" system on UK racing. I've added a turnover column on the right and summed that and the profit/loss column to show a $11.87 profit on a $93.85 turnover. Assuming a $100 starting bank that's a 12.6% profit turning over 0.9385 of the bank. Bet placement times are UTC.

I've included this in support of my previous "no hot air intended" comment that making a 10% POT is easily obtained but may be difficult to maintain.

Would love to hear what sitting opposite the crowd means. You know I love a crowd :)

All the best

PS. Just noticed the profit figure doesn't line up with it's column but can't be bothered changing it now.

Nice work Pixie, do you love a riddle too?

I reckon it might be a perfect day given we are at back at Flemington today, so take a squiz at some words penned by the great Lou Reed...

You're going to reap
Just what you sow
(Reap, reap, reap)
You're going to reap
J ust what you sow
You're going to reap
Just what you sow
You're going to reap
Just what you sow
(Reap, reap, reap, what you sow)

Swap 'you' for 'they'(being the crowd) and you have part of the answer.

LG

PS thanks to sing-song-man schmiles for the inspiration - i'm still playing that last song, son !

PS Youre going to reap, just what they sow...

Forgive me for crowning you with the ad at the start.... makes me wanna pick up the juke box and throw it over pub counter !

LG