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-   -   What's the catch? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24987)

macs 26th September 2012 06:50 PM

Yes I did but I didn't actually attempt to import my selections, I just read you could but it turns out they can't be produced by a third party software.

It's all good, after using it for a few days IMO it's worth the money just for the simulation aspect.

I have a question about data. How much faith do you put in to past results, if it's happened in the past is it just as likely to happen in the future?

Vortech 26th September 2012 08:04 PM

macs from my limited knowledge and in relation to sample size I keep asking myself that question everyday.

The facts however are the larger the sample, the more confidence one would have on the events continuing. How large sample, that is up to the individual.

Another factor is the dividend of winners.

If you have 500 bets and have a return of $600 you may think ok all aboard. But within the $600 turnover you might have 2 winners paying $80, another paying $60 etc..... the chances of the next 500 bets containing these winners may be slim. not impossible tho.

This is why I'm currently reducing in some cases the Profit on Turnover to generate a larger sample but also a larger dollar turnover.

To know the long-term strike rate of any system is one of the most difficult elements of a system to measure especially off a small sample regardless of the testing period.

Good luck.

AngryPixie 27th September 2012 11:38 AM

This posting of some time ago may be of some use.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ad.php?p=162371

Normal disclaimer though, methods like these are tools not guarentees. There's no assurance that what has happened in the past will continue. ;)

macs 27th September 2012 01:36 PM

Thanks for that Angry, a wee bit complex for my concentration levels but fascinating to say the least.

Lord Greystoke 27th September 2012 02:05 PM

Nice one AP!

You will forever be known as 'Mr CHI' in my head, there being a specialist for everything on here it seems (a bit like 'The great Escape' movie eg the forger, the scrounger etc). Unless of course you might like to offer your own preference??

Cheers LG

PS you can call me 'Mr Mixer' = I can sometimes see the way different approaches might fit - come together to form an even better outcome.

The Ocho 28th September 2012 06:13 PM

You can call me 'The Trader', LG, as that's the only way I can seem to make any money at this game. :) :(

Lord Greystoke 28th September 2012 10:08 PM

If you can trade your way thru barb wire or make your way up thru the border into shwitzerland, you are a winner my son.

LG

macs 29th September 2012 05:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
LOL.

So Lesson 1 is - The favourite is NEVER too short to lose. :cool:
So Lesson 2 is - Don't become a smart ******** and think you're better than your system just because you've had 80 odd straight lays. 4 days profit gone in 4 manual bets ho hum.

The Ocho 29th September 2012 05:53 PM

Sorry to here that macs. Laying can be a cruel master.

macs 29th September 2012 07:07 PM

It's a very enjoyable learning curve Ocho and I'm still in profit so tomorrow is another day.

We'll try and cut out the brain farts tomorrow.


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