OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Dutch Backing Longshots (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26452)

Clive 18th May 2013 06:58 AM

Useless Bettor
Could you give an example of a race that fits this criteria. I,m not sure I've got it correct. Thanks

michaelg 18th May 2013 07:15 AM

I don't know if this interests anyone who backs longshots but yesterday's Ipswich 5/12 paid $54 on Unitab and $74 on Betfair - it ran third at it's last start.

Scone 8/9 paid $31 on Unitab and $40 on Betfair - it ran second at not last start but at it's previous start.

Rinconpaul 18th May 2013 07:28 AM

I'll try and help Clive. Look at Betfair's Racing Form and Results page, a race from yesterday Albany Race 6. If you were Dutch backing the divs read:
3.80 4.50 6.80 7.40 9.20 21 27 30 40
If you enter these figures up to 27 in a Dutching calculator (www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html) for 100 staked, you will get the following profit $4.07. In other words if you dutched the first 7 horses in order of price and one of those horses won, you would get a profit of $4.07 less commission = $3.80. What you need to get is at least $10 so this bet, although in profit, is poor value.
Remember too that you haven't got time to be entering figures manually into a calculator as they change all the time so you need a bot that only fires a bet if your desired profit is met.
Interestingly, in this particular case, if you dutched the first two or three horses there was good value but that's another story.
Hope that helps, RP

Clive 18th May 2013 07:35 AM

Thanks Rinconpaul

I get it now

Rinconpaul 18th May 2013 07:38 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
I don't know if this interests anyone who backs longshots but yesterday's Ipswich 5/12 paid $54 on Unitab and $74 on Betfair - it ran third at it's last start.

Scone 8/9 paid $31 on Unitab and $40 on Betfair - it ran second at not last start but at it's previous start.
Yes MG, it would have been a good day for longshot backers yesterday with Taystar $85, Polar Blitz $95 & Get That Indya $32 getting up. You should have seen the Quadrella $20,392.
Don't worry my brain's been ticking over, the two longshots were identified by my Longshot DNA filters as potential winners but you still had a mix of short priced horses in the other two legs, which ones to pick, the age old problem??
Have a great day, RP

UselessBettor 18th May 2013 01:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive
Useless Bettor
Could you give an example of a race that fits this criteria. I,m not sure I've got it correct. Thanks


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:587. GRAND IAM128.28.812.1951219512


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:584. RUN LEGLESS121717.55.8823529412


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:582. BOARDWALK1210.5119.5238095238


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:583. LAUGH ADAM1244.225


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:5811. JUDGE SMAILS1220245


AUSDubb (AUS) 13th MayR5 1600m CL313/05/13 14:581. AKAMAS123.13.1532.2580645161



Here is an example from a few days ago. hopefully it formats ok. The odds are the 2nd and 3rd last columns. The percentage is the last column which is 100 divided by the bet price offered (lower odds).

In this case they added up to 89.859 so it was a race to bet. The result was AKAMAS winning returning 100 meaning a profit of approximately 10.14

Clive 18th May 2013 04:04 PM

Thanks Useless Better
I,ve worked through your example and I can follow it. I think it might be a bit frustrating looking at lots of races, but finding very few that qualify. Still it is worthwhile if it is longterm profitable.

UselessBettor 18th May 2013 05:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive
Thanks Useless Better
I,ve worked through your example and I can follow it. I think it might be a bit frustrating looking at lots of races, but finding very few that qualify. Still it is worthwhile if it is longterm profitable.

Clive,

Yes it would be frustrating. You could make your cut off higher if needed. But if its automated then its of no concern looking through it ... it just needs to be coded and then watch the dollars roll in.

Clive 18th May 2013 06:18 PM

Sadly, I'm not that computer literate and need to do everything manually, although I do have a dutching calculator


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:00 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.