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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Races to Dutch Back (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26494)

Lord Greystoke

22nd May 2013 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Using what ever method, with one bet, do you think you can make a profit of about one quarter of one per cent per day? I can hear you all the way back in Canberra, "I can make heaps more than that...!!!" The money in your savings account is making a hundredth of one percent per day.

Time will tell RP; I am 14 trials into a day-to-day experiment whereby I am targeting 3.2% return on bank(ROB !). Didn't start out as one bet per day but is fast ending up this way. Means I get out whilst ahead or cut any loss quick smart.

Seems to be working OK thus far...
=> 100 units at start
=> col 1 = running balance
=> col 2 = 3.2% target per day
=> target exceeded = 9 trials(64%)

1... 132.7..103.2
2... 149.2..106.4
3... 166.5..109.6
4... 178.4..112.8
5... 170.3..116.0
6... 176.4..119.2
7... 140.9..122.4
8... 121.5..125.6
9... 121.9..128.8
10. 132.8..132.0
11. 157.0..135.2
12. 161.5..138.4
13. 168.3..141.6
14. 198.5..144.8

Cheers LG

Lord Greystoke

23rd May 2013 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Sorry LG this one is updated right up to date in XL 2003
RP

Alas Sir.. this one still cannot be opened in the 2003v, not even with the might of Excalibur!

LG

demodocus

23rd May 2013 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Later in Feb 2012 Bhagwan amended his earlier edict and it became:
"Only Dutch if Fav is $3.25+". Fact or Fiction?

A: Part Fiction

Of the last 55 no. >$30 BF Back priced winners, 50% were > $3.25 Tatts price.

So we're starting to see a useful filter emerge. Confidence can be gained by only Dutching races wherein the Fav is $4.00+. this is confirmed by long term stats wherein Fav's $4.00+ only win < 21% of the time so the luck is more spread amongst the other horses.
It's uncanny that longshots appear more often when the Fav is an average of $3.00 (29% Win S/R). Anyone got a theory on that?
RP

I suspect you'll find that Field Size has a lot to do with this as FS seems to work linearly on the Fav. Price. Looking at Sat Metro it runs from 35.1% with FS8 to 26% at FS 16. A 29%WSR occurs at FS 11 which is the roughly average Field AllOz. Fascinating stuff .... thanks for the thought provoking thread.

Rinconpaul

23rd May 2013 09:42 AM

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

Alas Sir.. this one still cannot be opened in the 2003v, not even with the might of Excalibur!

LG

This is right up to date

Lord Greystoke

23rd May 2013 10:14 AM

Thanks mate. Very interesting findings in there, especially with FU runners in the sprints.

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen

23rd May 2013 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

Thanks mate. Very interesting findings in there, especially with FU runners in the sprints.

Cheers LG

And that has been happening for as long as I can remember. Until BF arrived it was hard to find a way to profit from the regular longshot winners. I'm not certain that it is possible now but getting 60 points over the tote odds, as happened yesterday, gives it a chance.

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