End of Month Summary
 

Due to the wet weather in May there were less then the usual number of selections. Average 2 per day.

The performance was:

WIN - Bets 67 winners 30 strike rate 44.8% POT 2.99% POSITIVE OUTCOME (NSW/SP)
PLC - Bets 67 winners 54 strike rate 80.1% POT 6.30% POSITIVE OUTCOME (NSW TOTE)

These selections are generated by our R2W Axis program from a single system.

Whole Period Mar 2010 to May 2013
 

'PROFITABLE FAVOURITES' SYSTEM SELECTIONS (Long-Term Results)

Results:
Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,748
(2 per day on average)
Strike Rate - 46.4%
Positive POT 4.63% (best of NSW/SP).
See the results file updated monthly to May 2013. (attached)

Details: These selections only become bets if they are SP favourite and are on either Good & Dead tracks. Expect 2 selections per day on average. Uses several of our best performing ratings and settings as filters.

Please note: In accordance with normal statistical variance (even with such a great strike rate) there has still been 10 losers in a row contained within the sample number). See our 'Learning to bet like a Pro' articles for a better understanding on this topic.

If you disregard the SP favourite rule, the system will have 4221 selections. A strike rate of 37% and close to a break even result (-1.3% POT at best of NSW/SP). If you have the ability to obtain better prices such as top fluctuation or better, you would be in profit using this strategy.

These results are created by our R2W Axis program from a single system, these selections are offered free to showcase the capabilities of the program and its rating and not to sell this system. It will be replaced with a new one from time to time. If you would like to know more then don't hesitate to contact us.

Michal - I'm very interested in your findings.

I understand you only look for favourites on Good/Dead tracks.
Any other prime filters
I've running some tests using your ideas from 1999 to 2006. Trying to get approximately 5000 selections together.

I'll let you know how I go and if there is any reflections to your approach.

Hi Vortech,

I think that I stated previously in this thread, the main rule is based on rating consensus. That is the prime filter. There are few others that really eliminate the extremes and other then the Good/Dead track have no real bearing overall on the outcome. We might be talking about less then a hundred or so selections eliminated all together, so just a few percent.

In regards to the missing wet portion of the system; we use the same method for Slow and Heavy tracks. It still produces 700 selections for a 42.5% win SR and a positive POT if you can obtain a better price then the NSW/SP that we use. At NSW/SP it looses 2.21%.

What I have done with it, is applied one additional filter to make it into a great little system. That one rule is painfully obvious for a wet track system.

It just makes sense, when a horse is running on a wet track and he cops a hoof full of mud in his face, he isn't going to be too excited about continuing to run and what if he cops a few more? What about the sliding and interference .... I think I made my point. There is one horse that is pretty much immune to the mud slinging and interfearance at least.

The FRONT RUNNER !

Take any system that is failing in the wet, and only apply it to the front runners and you are more then likely have a winner providing that you have a logical method to begin with. At least that is what I find in Axis. But how do you find the front runner? What you need is an accurate and consistent way of measuring this and you are set.

Our R2W Axis has a few advantages over the standard form guide based in-running and one MAJOR difference.

• We have the in-running positions for every TAB meeting in Australia so each horse and his past 20 starts has at least the settling position. So when we calculate our predicted in-running and our speed maps we are not relying on half completed data that the rest of Australian punters use.

• The leader is not necessarily the horse that leads all the time. When we calculate horses PIR (position in running) it will vary from race to race, and while others look and can recognize the obvious leaders we have the ability to calculate who is likely to lead even if the field is full of back-markers!

• Our PIR also creates speed maps that show horses initial likely velocity, in conjunction to his rail position and the rest of the field, so in a glance you can recognize who has the advantage and why a good leader in the outside gates is often undervalued by the market.

Anyway so applying our PIR (position in running) rank of one, and eliminating all the horses that are likely to cop mud in their face and interference on wet conditions we are able to produce a system with 48% SR and 9% POT. Applying the same to our already successful Dry favourite system increases the strike rate to 49.7% and 8.33% POT using our conservative NSW/SP divs.

You notice the correlation between the 2 systems is almost the same when taking this PIR into consideration, giving me confidence that the results are due to a pattern rather then a coincidence. In-fact I could combine them back together for a front running Favourite system and great success.

Unfortunately using last start settling position for instance, which is what most punters have, has absolutely no such results, and that is even with our complete settling position data.


Kind regards

Its definitely a good product and one most should be interested in especially for taking that next step in their punting careers.

The challenge is to convince those that 50+ POT are not possible in this game long-term.

With the tools I have I'm not able to successfully generate results like yours. Not even close.

I would be interested in your product only time permits. Working full time as a certified Accountant coming up to end of financial year doesn't allow much time to even see if specific horses are the starting favourites yet along watch the races live.

Keep up the good work. You appear honest and genuine.

A nice result yesterday!

2 from 2 and $1.9 and $5.10 for SP favourites.



I have included the Wet system selection for today for extra interest and will do so from now on as the tracks are getting rain effected too much which reduces the selections in the Dry Fave system. So please disregard the G/D Tracks recomendation for the wet system and only confirm the selection is favourite.

If you want to know what the Wet Fave system is please read post 37

Finally, thanks Vortech, appreciate the comments, we have been getting a lot of positive feedback of late.

The wet system, for rain effected tracks has far less selections, it is harder to find these standouts on the less occurring wet tracks; as a result I only put it up as a matter of interest. If you are following these selections, please note the system names and ensure that you are following the right recommendations for best results before you commit to your bet.

R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY - Best results with G/D tracks and SP favourite
R2W PROFIT FAVE WET - Best results with SP favourite