OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   General Topics (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=59)
-   -   The Benefit of odds movement. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=28362)

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 04:31 PM

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

UselessBettor 3rd May 2014 07:09 PM

CP,

Just an observation, but from my dart board random assessment of a few of these across multiple sports, it appears in 90% of cases the favourite firms (or stays the same) and the long shot drifts.

What is your feel for this ?

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 07:18 PM

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 07:26 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
CP,

Just an observation, but from my dart board random assessment of a few of these across multiple sports, it appears in 90% of cases the favourite firms (or stays the same) and the long shot drifts.

What is your feel for this ?


It's fairly even when you look at the amounts.
Often it will stay the same or firm a little, but when it drifts it compensates more.
So you end up a little better off laying first then backing.
But you are right by strike rate.

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 07:29 PM

Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Brisbane Lay at $4.50 Back at $6.00
Sydney Lay at $1.25 Back at $1.19

Essendon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Essendon Lay at $1.34 Back at $1.32
Bulldogs Lay at $3.75 Back at $4.00

UselessBettor 3rd May 2014 07:56 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

I'm trying to work out the profit on these. So this might help others understand it.

GWS vs Port Adelaide.
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 = Back and Lay cancel each other out.
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c = (10*(1.11-1.08)) = 0.30

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 = Back and Lay cancel each other out.
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 = (10*(11.50-10.50)) = 10

Thanks for posting the prices.

Sands 3rd May 2014 08:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I'm trying to work out the profit on these. So this might help others understand it.

Yep, thanks

Rinconpaul 3rd May 2014 08:16 PM

Thanks to you two 'tag team champions'. Starting to get it now.

Chrome Prince 3rd May 2014 08:33 PM

Yes, sorry I haven't given full calculations, I do this day in and day out so I forget that it does need a bit of explanation. Once you get the calculations, it just becomes automatic mental arithmetic.

Basically you don't need to work out any calculations for the losing side, only the winning side. It's just (back odds - lay odds) * stake (less commission)

UselessBettor 3rd May 2014 09:34 PM

For those who not use to betfair. The reason you don't have to worry about the losing side is because you layed it for $10. So you get back $10 because the team lost. You have also backed it for $10 to win so your winning on the $10 lay just pays back your losing of $10 on the back.

Its all simple when you understand it.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 07:27 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.