Oh JFC you've done it again (apologies to Magoo)!!!

QUOTE:
Also, I should add that as by definition Kelly needs edge, odds and a proper bank to work, and typically I have none of the 3, so I never use it.


Just reread your edited post to find that little gem appended to the end of it!

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Here I was thinking we had a Kelly expert in our midst who was going to tell us how to apply it successfully to horse racing and you haven't even tried to use it!

Reminds me of some of the lecturers from my University days espousing all these great sounding economics theories. Only problem is they have never worked a single day outside the University system so have no knowledge of how the real business world operates!

BeCareful,

you are a fool.

After watching more and more nonsense on this thread, and wondering how you and others had not read my considered post fully, all I did was embolden the part that no one seemed to spot.

That gem was always there, I did not append it.

Hmm,

You admit that you have no bank and no edge. You post a message stating that the topic should have started with the Kelly Criterion - but you have never used it yourself and clearly don't understand the limitations of it. Any yet you dismiss most of what has been posted here as "nonsense" and call people fools????

There have been some very useful bits of information on this thread from some quite knowledgable people - unfortunately it seems that you are to ignorant and/or arrogant to notice. Its a real shame as it could help you in building up a bank (and there are other useful posts to help you with the edge bit) - something you admit you need.

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-10-24 16:16 ]

BeCareful,

to my recollection you are the only one here I've called a fool. For indisputable presented reasons.

You continue exposing your stupidity with your response. Deliberate misinterpretations of my position, along with outrageous unsubstantiated inferences about my capabilities. I could spell them out for you, but you'd learn more by re-examining your goofs.

Onto general comments.

Too much of this discussion is contaminated by staking plans. What do they have to do with risk management?

Typically staking plans are merely a tool for charlatans.

It's very hard to find any long term edge at flat or proportional stakes, so the shonk system sellers merely backfit a staking plan which conveniently has the biggest stakes on the winners.

Furthermore staking plans often encouraging overbetting so as to portray stupendous running banks. Until the inevitable run to ruin. In such cases they'd be the opposite of risk management.

If you must go on about staking plans then start a new discussion.

:roll:

1. Maybe I misinterpreted your position because I can't ************ well work out what your position is??? As far as I can see you joined this particular discussion claiming Kelly was the solution to risk management BUT you have never used it yourself. When several people (myself included) questioned the viability of it you remined silent. WHAT IS YOUR POSITION ON THIS TOPIC???????

2. I NEVER mentioned staking plans (in the sense that you mean anyway) and anyone who has been on this forum for a while will know that I generally oppose them - particularly ones just intended for loss chasing.

3. Unlike you I don't dimiss out of hand the fact that there may be staking plans that do reduce or help manage risk. I certainly think there is merit in this discussion if we can get away from the "Don't bring up staking plans" attitude and instead move to "Can staking plans help manage risk in any way?"

BTW Kelly IS a staking plan so you have broken your own rule there! In fact Kelly is probably one of the WORST staking plans (except for straight progression betting with no limits) for OVERBETTING which you seem to be opposed to - seems a bit of a contradiction in your position there.

Please restrict comments to the arguments presented and not take those comments a step further by calling anyone a fool etc. etc.

I'm staying out of this discussion topic as I've made my positon clear and it seems to have been dismissed, so no use banging your head against a brick wall.

However, I have been recently conversing off forum with Darkydog2002, stebbo even before he joined this forum and Becareful for over a year now.

I must state that Becareful is no fool. He is far more intelligent than myself, and I don't consider myself a fool.
He has freely shared his wisdom in many areas with me, and I'm better off for his input and intelligence on all matters.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-10-25 14:36 ]

As far as staking goes I can't see anything wrong with the bigger the overlay the bigger the bet. As far as risk managemant goes, try getting a no nonsense wife to fear.
If you can't pick enough winners to steadily stay in front, at least reduce your bet cost until it dosn't hurt [sometimes I'm betting $2 a bet and at others $500]. If you are not having a good time you are betting too much. If profit is your only criteria in punting and you are not looking like you ever will turn a profit, by some TAB Corp. shares instead and give the game away.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-26 18:38 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-28 07:48 ]

Thanks Chrome Prince - you are certainly no fool yourself and have given me more than a few good ideas and pointers - it is a shame that some people have such a high opinion of themselves that they close their minds off to other ideas.

I am sure anyone who has been here a while can make up their own mind as to whether I am a fool or not. Of course everyone is entitled to their own opinion but I stopped caring what other peoples opinions are long ago!

I always enjoy Jfc's gameness [and self- rightiousness] but it is often ruined by lack of class in the running as innuendo is always a classier way to deride.

I too, and probably many others here [and in other forums too] have enjoyed Becareful's informed posts and I include here the adversarial cut and thrust ones [wherin my mouth sometimes increases in size to be larger than my brain] that are always great sport free of personal insults but enjoyable innuendo.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-27 09:19 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-27 09:22 ]