More cream for the pie yesterday.

WARRAGUL

R2 1 Royal Incline $1.90
STOP PROFIT

TRARALGON

R2 Hello Pete -
R4 Ima Wild Child -
R5 Phantom Walk $2.00
STOP PROFIT

NOWRA
R4 Typical Storm $2.60
STOP PROFIT

SHEPPARTON
R3 Govidius -
R6 Proven Serene -
R7 Prudence Bale -
R8 Arejay Ace $1.70
STOP PROFIT

ANGLE PARK
R2 Rapid Class $3.50
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND
R2 Always Lying -
R3 Braewood -
R5 I'm Typical -
R6 Poetic Token -
R8 Good Grief -
R10 Best And Bold $1.70
STOP PROFIT

WENTY PARK
R1 Spring Secret -
R2 Fancy Candy $1.80
STOP PROFIT

LAUNCESTON
R1 What's Up Doc -
R2 Thelma Kelly $2.90
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R1 Smiles Are Free $3.00
STOP PROFIT

On the day....
20 selections
8 winners
19.20 return
0.80 loss level staking.

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 39 units
Return 45.10 units
15.64% POT using TAB prices.

This is level staking but best used to take out a fixed amount per win. At this stage no meeting out of 39 bets has failed to produce the goods.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-26 23:32 ]

Interesting, Chrome. But if you had followed my suggestion of stopping at a venue after two failures, the result would have been even better. According to my calculations --- 26.6% POT :grin:

When you get too many outs, it is obvious you are not going to cover them at level stakes given the average short price of the favourites. I know some will object that there really is no difference in following a third race here rather than a first race somewhere else; but I think you mentioned that the favourites do tend to come up more regularly at the early part of a meeting (?).

Just a query, taking out a regular stake for a win (as you suggested) surely can lead to huge outlays for a small return when a favourite is slow at arriving (pun intended!)? Or do I misunderstand you.

Hi Merriguy,

You're right in your assumptions.
At this stage it is still winning at level staking, but I have used the takeout principle in the past.

Yes the bets do get large, but if you have the bucks behind you, you can weather the storm if you have nerves of steel.

Alas, the major problem is betting on the net into small pools (you end up betting against yourself).

As Kenchar suggested, bookies at the greyhounds will not entertain bets over $200 these days, which is why they are a dying breed.

Thanks, Chrome. Enjoy your posts.

Thanks, Chrome. Enjoy your posts.

Tonight's Result

GAWLER
R3 1 Shezniak -
R10 1 Kernaghan Bale -
R11 1 Forever Solved $2.40
STOP PROFIT

DEVONPORT
R3 2 Midnight Saga -
R4 1 Flying Fort $1.30
STOP PROFIT

HORSHAM
R4 6 Clutha Bale - (empty box beside)
R6 8 Marbo Boom -
R7 1 Tanwood Black $2.00
STOP PROFIT

GOLD COAST
R4 1 Raven Petite -
R7 5 Surf Lorian $1.90 (empty box beside)
STOP PROFIT

LISMORE
R1 2 Major Go Fast -
R3 2 Energy Master $2.80
STOP PROFIT

WARRAGUL
R5 7 Dalhunty Bale $2.10
STOP PROFIT

GOSFORD
R2 8 Run Joshie Run $1.80
STOP PROFIT

IPSWICH
R1 8 Shadow Fantasy -
R7 1 Boo's Choice $1.70
STOP PROFIT

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 55 units
Return 61.10 units
11.09% POT using TAB prices.

Still no meetings have failed to return a winner :grin:

**Note-for those just starting to follow this, the STOP PROFIT refers to taking out a fixed profit per win, NOT level staking, althought it is showing 11.09% POT using TAB prices level staking.

Merriguy, after 200 races, I'll reassess your suggestion and incorporate it if it still improves the POT...thanks for the suggestion.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 00:29 ]

Hi CP
Are you betting to prices or target betting including your losses in the targets????
or just betting to prices without including your losses.
There are some big bets if trying to make lets say $10
Just intersted in how your approach is.
Cheers

Hi good4th,

Firstly apologies for taking over your thread, I really should have started a new one but this all came about by being challenge on my statement "I have never done well at the doggies" and my seemingly contradictory statement of winning by betting on favourites in the past.

So apologies to you.

In answer to your question: The system is winning level staking (at the moment after limited bets) but I have used this approach of target betting chasing losses and a target profit.

I gave it away because the size of the bets betting into small TAB pools and lack of being able to place the required large wagers with bookies when there are a lot of losses.

You are correct, even chasing a $10 profit per meeting, the wagers grow to extraordinary proportion, BUT it can be done.
It also demonstrates, Kenchar's stop at a profit theory quite well.

If it keeps going as well as it has in the last few meetings, with no meeting failing to return a winner, I'll find some way to start again.

The filters are simply these:
MUST BE TAB FAVOURITE AT 0 min mark
BOXES 1,2,7, or 8
or must have an empty box next to it.
No Maiden or mixed maiden races (E.G. MAIDEN/JUVENILE)

There are all the rules.

Been performing well to date.

GOSFORD
R2 8 Fort Worth $1.60
STOP PROFIT

GOLD COAST
R3 8 Railroad Ghost $2.20
STOP PROFIT

WARRNAMBOOL
R4 8 Track Special $2.00
STOP PROFIT

BALLARAT
R2 1 Ruin Me Not $1.40
STOP PROFIT

BULLI
R2 2 Unique Girl -
R3 3 Furious George -
R4 5 Oxley Tiger (empty box next door) $1.80
STOP PROFIT

IPSWICH
R2 1 Newfound Ace $2.00
STOP PROFIT

Another great day!!!

8 bets
10.80 return
35% POT level stakes.

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 63 units
Return 71.90 units
14.13% POT using TAB prices

After 63 bets no meeting has failed to deliver a winner - ************ astounding!

P.S. Merriguy, I know what you're gonna say :wink:




[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 20:44 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 20:45 ]