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-   -   Who can pick losers easily? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4479)

Mark 30th March 2004 07:22 AM

Get to the track, or get someone at the track to pass on the prices. (I never said that).

White Turnip 30th March 2004 12:15 PM

INNY, you might want to try to eliminate some races first. Not all races are good options to bet in. I recommend not betting in maidens, Class 1 and Class 2 races. There is little exposed form in these races and horses tend to be inconsistent. Wait till a horse has formed some patterns, winning or losing, and then start to sort out the muddle. Another race type to avoid is the one where a lot of horses are resuming, especially the top 5 weighted horses. More than 2 of the top weighted horses resuming and I don't bet.

Hope this helps

purpleheart68 30th March 2004 12:59 PM

White Turnip,totally disagree with NOT betting in Maiden & C1 races!Favs at just before jump have an excellent s/r as I pointed out on a previous post which has dissappeared into the archives!Do you only reccommend not betting in these races because there is not enough exposed form to "rate"them?Have a look at todays results thus far!I am well in front already,backing favs in the very races you say not to bet in.My s/r in these races is a very healthy 45%,but no one seems to want to bet in these races.Maybe you are all brainwashed.

White Turnip 30th March 2004 01:22 PM

purpleheart68, your figures simply do not stack up over time. Check your database results on favs in these events and you will lose. Yes, you will have some good days and yes you will have some bad days but backing favs using that criteria will lead to failure.

These events are generally run in the country and as such the pool is much less. They are suited to smaller punters who will gamble on anything.

You haven't convinced to throw good money at bad races.

purpleheart68 30th March 2004 05:11 PM

results today
Rockhampton
R2(c1)1st 2.50/1.40
R5(M)1st 4.20/1.80
R6(c2)1st 1.90/1.00
R7 (c1) 3rd 1.80

Gosford
R1 (m) 1st 2.30/1.10
R2(m) unpl
R5(m) unpl
R6 unpl

Stoney Creek
R1(M) 1st 2.80/1.50
R2M) 1st 2.80/1.40
R3 unpl
R4 unpl
R6 2nd 2.00

Results
13 bets
6 winners
9 places

I rest my case

kenchar 30th March 2004 05:55 PM

Purpleheart68,
Mondays results were absolutely shocking as well, as far as I can work out it was 16 bets for 10 wins and a dead heat win.

C'mon mate give these low class races a miss, and concentrate on the quality races where the big money goes on.

You know yourself the money you win on these low races is not the the same as the money won on quality races :???:


Thats what it sounds like from the other poster.

Cheers


[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-03-30 18:56 ]

White Turnip 30th March 2004 08:09 PM

Last 30 days on Vic and NSW provincial tracks

101 bets 38 winners $95 returned

Last 60 days on Vic and NSW provincial tracks

221 bets 84 winners $201 returned

Do thorough research, not just the winning days.

White Turnip 30th March 2004 09:02 PM

My research based on figures from the NSW TAB are as follows

GOSF
1 MDN $2.30 Won
2 2MDN Lost
3 C2 $1.40 Won
4 C2 Lost
5 MDN Lost
6 MDN Lost
7 C2 Lost

ROCK
2 C1 $2.20 Win
5 MDN $3.40
6 C2 $1.90
7 C1 Lost

S CK
1 3+MDN $3.20 Win
2 2OPN $2.90 Win (Actually a 2YO OPEN)
3 3C1 Lost
4 3+MDN Lost
7 C2 Lost
8 4+C1 Lost

You seem to be very selective on the races you include and omit.

17 bets 7 wins $17.2 returned

Mr ed 30th March 2004 11:13 PM

White Turnip, surely a system based on backing only favorites could not be judged by TOTE prices. We all know to really win on faves you must be on track or have access to top flux. Im sure if the horses you mentioned in your previous post were backed on track the profit would have been much greater then $17.

By the way has anybody done any research or got any figures regarding the % of faves that start shorter on TOTE then the top flux.

Cheers ED

Mr ed 30th March 2004 11:15 PM

Apologies return not profit.


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