When do you bet Mr J? Do you bet early or do you wait till just before the game?

As I bet on a lot of outsiders, I find the odds or the line often go out because so many back the favs. Today I got Warriors (+13.5) at $2 which I thought was good.

Doesn't say much for a system that relies on even money chances where you are only beating a 5% take.

Sure it doesn't say much. I just picked out the lowest performing patch this year.

Does 117-86 for +24.52 units sound ok? (my systems results this year).

Is that 117 at even money or 117 at $1.90 or 117 at some other price?

Average price for NRL/AFL is 1.98, for Union it'd be a little over even money.

Last count I think Sportznuts home dogs were hitting around 70%????

AFL home dogs have hit 99/157 for 63% over the last 3 years.

NRL home dogs have hit 92/160 for 57.5% over the last 3 years.

S12 is probally 55-60%.

This is for ALL home dogs. I think Sportznut has a rule where he stays away from derbies (for AFL/NRL) or same nationality matches for S12. I doubt it really makes that much difference, but it'd be interesting to check out anyway.

60% over 317 bets is extremely good, not sure if it'll keep that up though. It'd just how prove how inefficient the market is if it did.

One big flaw is that the system relies on a historical trend, which might change at any time. I doubt they will though, as the home dogs have been the best bet in the NFL for decades.

After watching all the games this week not 1 team stood out, with all of next weeks games all being up for grabs with the probability of the cowboys being the best of them , could be a few upsets