Don't expect a very good result today. The weather is affecting pretty much all tracks.

You made some excellemt selections today Sportz, particularly on those wet tracks.
Have you created any more of those great systems during your break.

Well done Sportznut ..going great,
It seems the trifectas are more consistent using the latest markets. Using the early markets though gives you some value but are alot harder to get.
You're catching up quick :smile:

Yeh sports well done!

Yeah, working on a few. Mainly strengthening the current ones though. What I'm going to do is use the very strongest system selections in this new betting strategy I'm experimenting with here.

SEPTEMBER 10
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MY SELECTIONS:
Again remember, the first horse is the value selection, second horse is the saver. I'm sorry, but there are quite a few today. I would have liked to have cut down a bit. Anyway, the races with a * are the ones I'm most confident about.

Cairns Race 1*
6 Luberon $35 ---
2 Final $35 WON $108.50
2,4,6 - 1,2,4,5,6,10 WON $100.55
1,2,6 - 1,2,3,5,6,10 ---

Cairns Race 2*
6 Fouad $25 ---
1 Gold Cracker $45 WON $108
1,6,8 - 1,2,5,6,8,9 ---
1,6,8 - 1,4,5,6,8,9 ---

Cairns Race 3
8 Framework $45 ---
1 Epona's Bonus $25 ---
1,2,8 - 1,2,3,7,8,10 ---
1,7,8 - 1,2,3,7,8,10 ---

Cairns Race 6
6 Hiacla $40 ---
1 Junkets $30 ---
1,3,6 - 1,2,3,5,6,7 --- (F4 ---)
1,3,6 - 1,2,3,6,7,10 --- (F4 ---)

Cairns Race 7*
3 Brunt $20 ---
10 Undenied $50 WON $110
3,9,10 - 1,2,3,7,9,10 WON $29.55 (F4 ---)
2,3,10 - 1,2,3,7,9,10 WON $29.55 (F4 ---)

Cairns Race 8
7 Mr Healey $10 ---
3 River Hunter $60 WON $108
3,7,9 - 3,4,7,8,9,10 WON $22.00 (F4 ---)
3,7,9 - 3,4,5,7,9,10 --- (F4 ---)

Hawkesbury Race 2*
5 Roadhog $45 WON $162
2 Frozen Valour $25 ---
1,2,5 - 1,2,4,5,6,8 WON $17.40
2,5,6 - 1,2,4,5,6,8 WON $17.40

Canberra Race 1
4 Mystic Silver $40 ---
8 Standabove L.SCR
4,8,10 - 4,8,10,11,12,13 --- (8 L.SCR)
4,8,12 - 4,8,10,12,13,15 WON $20.85 (8 L.SCR)

Canberra Race 2
1 Biggins $45 ---
2 Truly Something $25 ---
1,2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,12 ---
1,2,4 - 1,2,3,4,12,14 ---

Canberra Race 5
12 Just A Bloke $45 ---
1 Reynella $25 ---
1,4,12 - 1,2,4,5,10,12 ---
1,3,12 - 1,2,3,5,6,12 ---

Canberra Race 7*
5 Phalanx $35 ---
6 At The Show $35 WON $108.50
2,5,6 - 1,2,5,6,7,9 WON $47.10 (F4 $67.90)
2,5,6 - 2,4,5,6,7,9 --- (F4 ---)

Mornington Race 5*
5 Stoneworkz $30 WON $144
3 Simply Melbourne $40 ---
1,3,5 - 1,3,5,6,8,11 --- (F4 ---)
1,3,5 - 1,3,5,6,7,8 WON $54.10 (F4 $80.45)

Mornington Race 6
4 Viva Vettori $45 ---
6 Unpolished $25 ---
4,5,6 - 1,3,4,5,6,8 --- (F4 ---)
4,5,6 - 1,2,4,5,6,7 --- (F4 ---)

Mornington Race 7*
7 Siamun $40 ---
2 Purpose Built $30 ---
1,2,7 - 1,2,3,4,6,7 WON $59.20 (F4 ---)
1,2,7 - 1,2,3,4,6,7 WON $59.20 (F4 ---)

RESULTS SO FAR:

Win & trifecta bets using Unitab divs. (IAS in brackets) Outlay so far $4500
Method 1: +$357.20 (+$658.30)
Method 2: +$903.05 (+$1212.75)

First 4s using Unitab divs. Outlay so far $945
Method 1: +$141.55
Method 2: +$374.65


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-10 18:03 ]

Well, all I can say is that if any of you backed these tips, I hope it was only in the races I was most confident about!!! :roll:

Geez, hindsight is a wonderful thing. Why didn't I just tip in those best 7 races and ditch the rest? They were absolutely HOPELESS!!! First 4s were shocking too.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-10 18:18 ]

Wish I had a dollar for every time I had to go back and insert the missing "r" in Spotznut.
Am a little bit paranoid about mentioning "r" so please accept my apologies if anybody reads something sinister in this posting.

SEPTEMBER 11
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Decided to only include the very strongest selections in my tipping today. The other races performed VERY poorly yesterday.

E.Farm Race 6*
13 Winsome Dancer $25 ---
1 Secret Gift 45 ---
1,2,13 - 1,2,3,5,8,13 WON $124.90 (F4 $244.70)
1,8,13 - 1,2,3,5,8,13 --- (F4 ---)

Rosehill Race 2*
5 Restless Wind $45 ---
1 Stormhill $25 ---
1,3,5 - 1,2,3,4,5,9 WON $181.05
1,3,5 - 1,3,4,5,7,9 WON $181.05

Rosehill Race 4*
3 Yiassou Sydney $50 ---
4 Ocho $20 ---
3,4,6 - 1,2,3,4,6,11 ---
2,3,4 - 1,2,3,4,10,11 ---

Rosehill Race 7*
9 November Dreaming $25 ---
6 Seul Amour $45 ---
4,6,9 - 2,4,6,9,10,11 --- (F4 ---)
6,9,11 - 2,4,6,9,10,11 --- (F4 ---)

M.Valley Race 2*
3 Heavenly Pun $40 ---
1 Special Voyage $30 ---
1,3,9 - 1,3,4,6,7,9 WON $259.70
1,3,9 - 1,3,4,6,8,9 ---

M.Valley Race 4*
7 Live In Vain $40 ---
2 Azevedo $30 ---
2,5,7 - 2,5,6,7,9,10 ---
2,5,7 - 2,4,5,7,9,10 ---

M.Valley Race 9*
15 A Dreamer $45 ---
5 Medieval Legend $25 ---
4,5,15 - 2,4,5,6,9,15 ---
5,6,15 - 4,5,6,7,9,15 ---

Vic.Park Race 5*
4 Wavefront $45 WON $180
1 Tarnpir Lad $25 ---
1,2,4 - 1,2,4,5,10,13 ---
1,4,10 - 1,2,4,5,10,13 ---

Belmont Race 2*
4 Cat In A Hat $55 ---
1 Senate Lease $15 ---
1,4,8 - 1,2,3,4,6,8 ---
1,4,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,8 ---

Belmont Race 3*
3 Braakensiek $20 ---
1 Metaldale $50 ---
1,2,3 - 1,2,3,4,5,11 WON $14.40
1,2,3 - 1,2,3,4,5,11 WON $14.40

Toowoomba Race 2*
5 Mustang's Mate $50 WON $120
2 Fil The Bill $20 ---
1,2,5 - 1,2,3,5,6,9 ---
2,3,5 - 1,2,3,5,6,8 ---

Toowoomba Race 3*
2 Ebony Smile $55 WON $93.50
1 No Man's Land $15 ---
1,2,8 - 1,2,3,7,8,9 ---
1,2,8 - 1,2,3,5,8,11 WON $43.55

RESULTS SO FAR:

Win & trifecta bets using Unitab divs. Outlay so far $5700
Method 1: +$130.75
Method 2: +$335.55

First 4s using Unitab divs. Outlay so far $1035
Method 1: +$295.70
Method 2: +$284.65

Unfortunately, I couldn't update the IAS figures today.

Anyway, the win selections today were ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC and I apologise to anyone who may have backed them. Shocking! A couple of good trifectas meant that it wasn't a total disaster, but all in all extremely disappointing.

I'm going to have a rethink about the way I'm going with this experiment. I know that the figures say I'm still in profit, but I don't like the way things are heading. I've learnt from the last few days that the most important thing of all is value. You may say that that's obvious, but it's easier said than done for someone like me to change their betting habits. In the past, I've definitely been influenced WAY too much by public opinion with my betting, when of course the best way to get good value is to go against public opinion.

What's really made me have a serious rethink is today's tipping comp results. This afternoon, I just quickly picked out some horses which I thought might have a chance of getting up at nice odds. Well, I ended up getting two nice winners, as well as placings in the other 3 races. Certainly FAR better results than I got with these selections on here. So from now on I'm going for value all the way. The only thing is I have to work out the best method to exploit the value. I'm going to look at it a bit more over the next week or so.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-12 04:10 ]

Don't be to hard on yourself Sportznut..

You profited !

The whole basis of the system you're using is to go for value. You're looking for that runner in the race that has a show but might be risky..which means it usually has value.
If it all fails you hope the saver or the tri gets you through it.
My strikrate for my selections would be shocking..its not about that but about what you're finished with.
You are doing really well better than most others i know using the same princible.
You had a shocker yesterday and still walk out with a profit plus you had a few placings that if any of them won you would of had a nice profit.

I look at the form and study the races before i listen or look at any tipsters selections. This helps because your not swayed about what they say. If they back up what you think thats well and good and it also helps to know if you've got the race pattern right. But trust your instincts..
hudson jack was one that got away but hey there's another racing somewhere today :smile: