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-   -   Betting Strategy (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6103)

Mr J 18th October 2004 05:42 AM

I'll tell you about a good betting strategy?

Pick just 1 bet per day. By being more selective, you are basically analysing, and in doing so are developing handicapping skills.

Or you could just do a whole lot of statistical work.

Dr Pangloss 19th October 2004 11:32 AM


OK well lets do some hard Horse Racing stats.

Consider Sat metro races for MSBA in races of minimum 8 runners (three place divs) where the Favourite returns an SP of $2.00 or less. Using NSW TAB divs results since July 01 until last Saturday are:

WIN
442 races
219 winners
SR 49.5%
-59.6 units
LoT -13.4%

PLACE
442 races
372 winners
SR 84.2%
-10.46 units
LoT -2.4%
ave div $1.17

Further consider the PLACE results. There are at least two on-line bookies that will bet you the BEST TAB PLACE dividend. Getting the best of the three TABs place dividend nets a premium of .08% per winning bet. (ie ave winning div is now $1.25)

Applying the BEST TAB premium renders the place results thus:

442 races
372 winners
SR 84.2%
19.2 units
PoT 4.42%

This is a system virtually devoid of rules. One of the on-line bookies I speak of actually paid an additional 5 cent premium on BEST PLACE div from Oct thru to end of April this year (thank you). You could not lose. It's a little tougher these days although I have not disclosed my entire strategy that includes Favourites up to SP $2.5.





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