Got the wrong score there. It was 5-2, so Man Utd DID win by 3 goals. :)

Two more EPL games overnight. Here's how those ratings went:

Liverpool vs Newcastle United (Liverpool by 2 goals) Liverpool won 3-1
Portsmouth vs Arsenal (Arsenal by 1 goal) Arsenal won 1-0

Starting to look a little bit promising.

I have that problem all the time at the TAB Sportznut.
Seem to be getting a fair share of winners,but my wallet tells me different.
Where did all my money go?

You really need to back up your selections with a level staking profit/loss statement!

Benny,

I've worked out that prices table for Soccer. Word of warning though. I don't have anywhere near as much experience with Soccer prices as the AFL, NRL etc and the Draw option does make it a touch tricky. Even so, I've had a bit of a go and come up with something. I've rounded off the margins to the nearest quarter of a point. So let's say you work out Team A is rated 2.23 points ahead of Team B. You would go down to 2.25 and it says Team A should be $1.47, the Draw $4.80 and Team B $9.00. Looks a little harsh on Team B really, but after looking at some Soccer odds over the last week or so, these prices seem to work out okay. I didn't go down any further than 7 goals. Shouldn't need to go down any further than about 5 or 6 really.

Rated
Margin - Team A - Draw - Team B
0 Goals - $2.85 - $3.35 - $2.85
0.25.... - $2.57 - $3.40 - $3.17
0.50.... - $2.35 - $3.45 - $3.55
0.75.... - $2.15 - $3.50 - $4.00
1 Goal.. - $2.00 - $3.60 - $4.50
1.25.... - $1.87 - $3.70 - $5.10
1.50.... - $1.75 - $3.90 - $5.85
1.75.... - $1.65 - $4.10 - $6.70
2 Goals - $1.55 - $4.45 - $7.70
2.25.... - $1.47 - $4.80 - $9.00
2.50.... - $1.40 - $5.20 - $10.50
2.75.... - $1.35 - $5.70 - $12.00
3 Goals - $1.30 - $6.30 - $14.00
3.25.... - $1.26 - $7.00 - $16.30
3.50.... - $1.22 - $7.80 - $19.00
3.75.... - $1.19 - $8.80 - $22.00
4 Goals - $1.16 - $10.00 - $25.00
4.25.... - $1.14 - $11.40 - $30.00
4.50.... - $1.12 - $13.00 - $35.00
4.75.... - $1.10 - $15.00 - $40.00
5 Goals - $1.09 - $17.00 - $46.00
5.50.... - $1.08 - $20.00 - $51.00
6 Goals - $1.07 - $23.00 - $56.00
6.50.... - $1.06 - $27.00 - $66.00
7 Goals - $1.05 - $33.00 - $76.00

Remember, that as well as those Ratings that I worked out (which you can update after each round), I also think it's important to give the home team an extra goal for home ground advantage. The games in this round have worked out pretty close to how they were rated, so it's looking okay so far.

i have an idea for soccer ratings...

1. insert FIFA2005 to your computer
2. click 'play now'
3. choose teams to play each other
4. put 'controller select' in the middle so u arent controlling either team.. i.e CPU vs CPU.
5. see what happens

players and teams have quite accurate ratings so the system isnt THAT crazy.

Well, I don't have that game, or any other computer games for that matter. Why don't you do the honours for us? Play next weeks round of EPL and see what happens.

How much should one allow for the home ground advantage? And what other information should i use in compling the power ratings.

Benny

I came up with these:

Home ground advatage.

Adelaide 2.45
Brisbane 1.97
Carlton 2.04
Collingwood 2.95
Essendon 1.93
Fremantle 1.27
Geelong 1.65
Hawthorn 2.84
Melbourne 1.82
Kangaroos 1.73
Port Adelaide 1.02
Richmond 2.97
St Kilda 1.45
Sydney 1.63
West Coast 1.06
Western Bulldogs 2.87

These are an approximate.

Benny

Not quite sure what you've done there. Again, as with your other figures I guess we can move the decimal point one place to the left to get a real points advantage.

Those figures look wierd though. I assume you must have simply worked out how much better a team performs at home than away. That is not really home ground advantage and I'll tell you why. Port Adelaide has a very good home ground advantage, yet they have the lowest figure you've listed there. I guess that's because they have a very good away record and that must have skewed your figures.

In any case, when the Melbourne teams play each other, on most occasions there's NO real home ground advantage. The real home ground advantages come when teams have to travel interstate.

Do you see what I see?
 

Fremantle has the greatest home advantage in the league when they play at Subiaco.
Benny,my friend,you are not looking at your figures and asking yourself the question,"Do these look about right or have I made an error in judgement somewhere?"