OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Racing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=5)
-   -   JANUARY TIPPING COMPETITION (Jan 1) (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6803)

Sportz 1st January 2005 06:07 PM

Yeah Feather, I've noticed you have a good strike rate of getting the winner with your two tips per race.

Personally, I'm absolutely hopeless at these Tipping comps. Unlike you, I always have so many different races I think about including and I get all confused and never know which ones to finally pick.

And the races I do end up choosing are always the wrong ones.

Sportz 1st January 2005 06:18 PM

Well, Raw Instinct's got off to a great start with the trifecta in MR8 ($527.90) and Nulla got the Tri in MR9 ($382.90).

Sportz 1st January 2005 07:42 PM

Leaderboard:
Raw Instinct : $608.90
nulla : $382.90
lomaca : $240.00
feather : $229.40
Testarossa : $204.80
Horse Whisperer : $201.00
ra sun : $157.50
Raider : $108.00
Sportz : $88.85
doomben : $86.00
a4brianp : $62.00
Rudolph : $47.00
sparkus8 : $36.00
brave chief : $0.00
Chuck : $0.00
QuickFunBet : $0.00
Martin Friedman : $0.00
Carol Friedman : $0.00
Zev Friedman : $0.00

Well done Raw. Great trifecta there.

Raw Instinct 1st January 2005 07:55 PM

Thanks Sportz if only I had put it on myself would have saved an average day for me.

Horse Whisperer 1st January 2005 10:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck
Going great so far Feather - Well Done!
Trifecta got up, as did Honalee and Navaho Princess @ 14-1


i got that one today chuck!!(navaho princess) mind u i only had 5 e/w it still was a good kickstart to my day :)

a4brianp 2nd January 2005 09:34 AM

Perhaps i should stick to the trots.At least i know something about them and can get a winner.
Thanks for running this comp SPORTZ good interest trouble is i backed my selections.
cheers

Chuck 2nd January 2005 10:50 AM

I better improve my game, if i'm to get the "Spring Comp + December Comp + January Comp" tipster triple!

moeee 2nd January 2005 03:08 PM

be careful!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck
I better improve my game, if i'm to get the "Spring Comp + December Comp + January Comp" tipster triple!


Yes I agree that you are the best about,but take it from me,once you start opening your mouth too wide,
you will trip
over your bottom lip!

feather 2nd January 2005 05:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
Yeah Feather, I've noticed you have a good strike rate of getting the winner with your two tips per race.

Personally, I'm absolutely hopeless at these Tipping comps. Unlike you, I always have so many different races I think about including and I get all confused and never know which ones to finally pick.

And the races I do end up choosing are always the wrong ones.


sportz, I have never looked at a boxed 5 before. how do you work out if a trifecta or quinella is worth putting on? Yesterday i bet on 7 races, four were on the forum and three at ascot. I would of won the tri 5 times paying 163.20, 295.80, 110.70, 23.60 & 63.80. is the loss of one worth it,because i had the others? I would of had the quin in all 7 races (not betting) and only four were over the $10 cost, but because I had pr9, this would of covered the losses . for the past two months on this system, i had been looking at only 4 horses per race, and it was not worth looking into it further.
Is there such a thing as a strike rate for two horses in a race? as i have been recording them separatly. thanks

Sportz 2nd January 2005 09:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by feather
sportz, I have never looked at a boxed 5 before. how do you work out if a trifecta or quinella is worth putting on? Yesterday i bet on 7 races, four were on the forum and three at ascot. I would of won the tri 5 times paying 163.20, 295.80, 110.70, 23.60 & 63.80. is the loss of one worth it,because i had the others? I would of had the quin in all 7 races (not betting) and only four were over the $10 cost, but because I had pr9, this would of covered the losses . for the past two months on this system, i had been looking at only 4 horses per race, and it was not worth looking into it further.


It's hard to tell whether a race is going to be value or not. I just looked up the results of your races and in all three trifectas that paid quite well, the favourite missed a place. That's when you get the bigger dividends. The two trifectas that didn't pay a lot, the favourite won. So, I guess the secret is to see if there's a short priced favourite and work out whether you think it will win or not. As for 5 horses versus 4, when you only have 4 horses in a trifecta and something goes wrong with one of them, you're relying on all 3 of your remaining runners filling the placings. In a 5 horse box, you have that extra chance. Most of the experts will actually say that it's stupid to have a box trifecta and it would be much better to use the 3/6/6 or 2/7/7 ideas. I just feel safer boxing them or using the roving banker idea. I prefer to have more than just 2 or 3 horses running for 1st. 2 guys in the tipping comp unsuccessfully went for a 2/7/7 trifecta in R6 in Sydney, and there's a good chance they would have got it with a 5 horse box or roving banker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by feather
Is there such a thing as a strike rate for two horses in a race? as i have been recording them separatly. thanks


Of course there is. It doesn't matter if you have two horses in a race. If you back 2 horses in say 10 races and your top selection wins 4 of them and your 2nd pick wins 2, then you've had the winner in 6 of the 10 races (60%) The only thing that changes is the profit. If you back them at level stakes and you get a $3.00 winner, instead of getting 200% profit on that race, you've only made 50% profit. The thing I've noticed with your tips for the comp is that you have the same amount on both and if a short priced runner wins, you don't make much profit on the race. Perhaps you could think about having more on the shorter one, say $10 compared to $5. Don't know why I should tell you what to do though. You're doing better in the tipping comp than me.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:37 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.