Day 3
 

Update

27 bets: 21 Wins; 6 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 27; Won 6.88; ROI 25.4%

Well Haynes managed to do the job despite a few injury timeouts and courtside treatment. Relatively tight matches for Karatancheva, Vaidisova and Cho, but all won through.

Second Round tips posted around 8:30 AEST.

Congrats mate. I had Karatancheva and Vaidisova as well, had a little bit of a scare especially with Karatancheva and her 16 double faults!!

Look forward to your tips tonight. Do you follow the ATP as well? That is my mainstay and it would be good to have someone to bounce ideas off.

I extend my congratulations for a great effort 4/4

the prices for womens tennis sure vary.

Karatancheva 1.70 - william hill
1.46 centerbet
1.57 ladbrooks

Do you find this sort of thing often. Could have bet both sides.

Must get that Pinnacle account organised.

Thanks again
Karla

ps - sparkus8 - I do ATP - see u soon at that thread

Good stuff Karla, I will definitely make a visit to the ATP thred :)

Day 3
 

I expect more variable results today as I back a few match-ready outsiders versus overvalued favourites coming in cold off a bye.

Kirilenko v Bovina
Indian Wells

A closer match than it appears on paper. Bovina is undoubtedly a great talent - you don't rank 15 in the world without being able to play. However I thinks there's a couple of things running agianst her. First she's only played four games this season as she's returning from a long injury layoff. Secondly Bovina's first up at Indian Wells having had a first round bye. Her opponent Kirilenko is a young player of great talent who came through qualifications and Round One without any problems. She's also in good form this season making the QF's in Doha which included a good win against Schnyder. She also performed well in Hyderabad - losing a close SF match to eventual winner Mirza. Her Hyderabad performance also included a good win over Na Li. I still rate Bovina the favourite at 65.9 v 34.1 but I'm willing to take the value on Kirilenko. She may not have Bovina's skill or experience but she has the game to win and a has had a slightly better preparation. Looking for an upset.

Kirilenko @ $3.35 - Pinnacle


Domachowska v Medina-Garrigues.
Indian Wells

Domachowska's coming off a good First Round win over Salerni (who had 2 good wins in qualifying: Castano and Dokic) so should be full of confidence and used to the conditions. Domachowska's also a competent hardcourter going 46/21 over her career, though she's had a mixed start to 2005. A minor shoulder strain at Hyderabad has slowed her down but her comeback has been positive enough. What I do like is her positive attitude which has helped
her rise about places in the rankings over the past 6 months. Her opponent Garrigues has had a shocking start to the season going 0-5 (4 hardcourt, 1 carpet). it must be said that she came up against some class opponents such as Molik, Pretrova and Dulko, but it's hardly ideal preparation for a player who is more at home on clay. That said, Garrigues won't be a pushover but Domachowska should prevail.

Domachowska $1.65 - generally available.


Jackson v Suarez
Indian Wells

Looking fo another upset here. Suarez is a class act returning from a long injury layoff. Her two comeback games were both easy losses to Bartoli (Doha) and Jankovic (Dubai). While a solid hardcourter who has performed reasonably well here before, she's much more at home on clay. Her opponent, the young and relatively inexperienced Jackson, has been slowly climbing the
rankings over the past few months. She's a respectable 46/26 on hard over her career, though a lot of her early games were on the challenger circuit. Good wins over Karatancheva and Frazier in Memphis and a close 3-set loss to Vaidisova means she certainly has the talent to win. A good Round One win
yesterday over Barna should be good preparation for this match-up. I'm not underestimating Suarez, this should be close.


Jackson $2.00 @ Pinnacle.


MarianaDiaz vs Dulko.
Indian Wells

I have this match much closer than the bookies. Both women prefer clay but are competent hardcourters. Dulko made the QF's here last year but had good preparation coming through the 2004 qualifiers. This year she's had a First Round bye and meets an in form DiazOliva who's had the benefit 3 matches here already. These included wins over Hopkins, Drake, and Brandi all of whom are capable players on hard. The H2H stands at 1-1 but with both games being very close. The first was a 3-set qualifier at Indian Wells 2001 while the second saw DiazOliva beat Dulko at this year's Australian Open (where she also put up a good fight against Kuznetsova). I still rate Dulko the favourite at 53.9% v 46.1% so there's a bit of value on the outsider.

DiazOliva $2.30 @ Pinnacle.

Notes. Be wary of Groenefeld who's first game back from injury.

Karla & Sparks
 

Thanks - bit of a streak at the moment but this will flatten out over time.

Karla prices do vary - Bookies don't hold much on WTA so easier to move the odds. Karantacheva was available at $1.67 @ Ladbrokes and elsewhere for quite a few hours so it's more the timing of when you're checking prices and how the market moves. prices will sometimes drift the other way - like Haynes yesterday.
The bets suggested today will all drift in my opinion so get in early. Kirilenko will definitely shorten as will DiazOlivia.

Sparks - don't handicap the ATP - I find it takes enough time to compile my database and run my programs just doing the WTA. Prefer to specialise.

unreal - mate
 

morning marco

woke up to the headline

Kirilenko Upsets Bovina

upset everyone but us.

If it's ok can u give us a bit of background on this. Like how you went overall last year.

Like to bet more but I am very conservative.

thanks to a great start to the day.

managed to get closer to top odds today.

Karla

Day 4
 

Couple of early tips to help people get the early prices. I'll be surprised if these odds last. More games posted later this afternoon.

Cho vs Stosur
Indian Wells

I'm gobsmacked that Stosur is priced so short. Sure she's ranked 47 versus Cho's 113 and sure, she had a good run in January this year at Hobart and Sydney. However Stosur's acheived little since by failing to qualify in Dubai last week and only qualifying in Doha the week prior as a lucky-loser. I also watched her lacklustre loss against an out-of-form Sugiyama - she was so ordianry she handed Sugiyama her first win for the year. Cho's certainly in-form and has had the advantage of a solid first round warm up against Marrero whereas Stosur is coming of the bye. The underrated Cho is no mug on hardcourts with a 97/64 career record, and while a few of these games were on the challenger circuit the same applies to Stosur's 70/57 career record. Having said all this I rate Stosur a marginal favourite at 53.4% vs 46.6% so value is with the outsider Cho. She'll have to play well to win but if Stosur's current form continues Cho's in with a good shout.

Cho $3.00 @ Ladbrokes
(a very early line - may be better prices later - watch the market)

Vaidsova vs Sprem
If I was shocked at Stosur's price then I'm just as shocked at Sprems. I rate Vaidisova a clear favourite here and I'll be surprised if her price doesn't come in. Sprem hasn't played since Antwerp's carpet where she sufferred a lower back injury and had a first round bye so she must be underdone. Her 2005 has gone 4-4 so even prior to her injury she wasn't in great form. Her first game back is against the red hot Vaidisova whose form expolits have been filling the media pages. She's 7-3 for the season and 35/8 on hard over her career. She easily accounted for Washington in the first round, she's risen 60 places in the rankings in the past 6 months (Sprem's been static) and despite lacking experience, she's a tremendous talent. Anything can happen in tennis and Sprem can clearly win, but at these odds Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova $1.83 at Ladbrokes.
(unfortunately Ladbrokes opened at $2.00 but the lined moved quickly as people like me piled on)

Update
 

Update

31 bets: 24 Wins; 7 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 31; Win 10.53; ROI 33.9%

Kirilenko in a cakewalk, Jackson and DiazOliva in squeakers and Domachowska a poor loss. Still, a very good return for the day.

The two games already posted are the only tips today. Prices still available.

Notes:
Further to these games, Sprem has withdrawn from the forthcoming Federation Cup (Croatia v Thailand) so as not to stress her recuperating back injury. Possibly not 100% at the moment as mentioned in tips post. Stosur lost in the doubles today which is hardly a morale boost leading into tomorrow's match with Cho.

For what it's worth, Craybas ($3.10) may go close to beating Likhovtseva but I'm not quite confident enough - both players a bit inconsistent at the moment.

Karla
 

Karla - sorry missed your question this morning. More than happy to answer queries etc but might be easier via email rather than clogging up this thread.
Send through an address if you're happy to do so.