Never doubted you Sportz.... well done !

Well, the number 1 that I was least confident about was Incinerator and he missed out. All the others got up, so a good day for the topweights.

It pays to take notice of the unitab ratings. Mister Cav in the last race at Rocky had awful form, yet they had it rated 2nd behind Browns Plains. It duly finished 2nd.

CANT R4 - 3 GEELONG MAJESTIQUE, 2 MONSOON SUNRISE (3,2,5,6 - 4,8)
CANT R7 - 1 EASTWEST SUCCESS (EW) (dangers 3 & 4) (1,3,4,6 - 2,7)
CRAN R6 - 2 CAN LAGO, 5 RUBITON RAIDER (2,5,1,7 - 3,10)
CRAN R7 - 3 MAHR
CRAN R8 - 8 PERFECT FEELING, 2 SATIN CHOICE (8,2,5,4 - 7,3)

Also backed All Black Gold at Canterbury, but having it's first start, I wasn't quite confident enough to list it here.

Not much in the way of value today. I didn't expect Mahr to be odds-on. She wasn't any value at that price. Looks like Perfect Feeling might be short too.

********** day today. I'll just write this off as one of those days. :rolleyes:

Good to see you are mortal..........!! :D

Yes, can we just pretend today never happened. What a shocker! :o

A very ordinary day's racing today and I'm not too keen.

I think perhaps you could look at Ballarat R8 as a good betting race. My ratings have 2 Deign To Dance & 9 Mrs Pike on top. I think they both could be good value today. Was impressed by Deign To Dance last time. The main dangers I think will be 1 & 3. If you concentrate around those 4 horses, hopefully you should be close to the mark.

Ratings:
43.5 - 2 DEIGN TO DANCE
43.0 - 9 MRS PIKE
40.5 - 3 Namibia
39.0 - 1 Wyndham Fortune
39.0 - 6 Aelstreet
38.0 - 4 Nyneleven
37.5 - 5 Octavelent
35.5 - 10 Nouveau

Tips:
BALL R8 - 2 DEIGN TO DANCE ($3.00) & 9 MRS PIKE ($4.00) (dangers 1 & 3)

A few other races I'm looking at, but I think they might not be value:
BALL R2 - 4 JOCK O' THE SIDE ($2.50) (danger 2)
TOWN R3 - 2 PREMIUM DRY ($2.20) (danger 1)
GRAF R6 - 1 ASHBURY ($2.80) (dangers 2 & 3)

Perhaps I should have concentrated on R6 at Ballarat instead. I had them rated this way:

46.0 - 7 Damos Rose
45.0 - 3 Destina
43.0 - 9 Moonlight Bandit
42.5 - 6 Sexy Lady
34.5 - 2 Flying Grange
33.0 - 1 Karikuri

Meanwhile, it's now a slow track at Grafton, so I'm not as confident about my selections in Race 6 there. These changing track conditions are a real pain.

Well done Sportz.

Stix,

No more giving tips just for the sake of giving tips. I've decided to concentrate more on my ratings and importantly, look only for value. I only found 2 races suitable today, races 6 & 8 at Ballarat. I tried to pick out the best of those races, but the ratings went well in both.

FLEM R2: Promising Pompeii Ruler is the top pick here. Was a brilliant run last time and the 1800 looks ideal. I've actually been waiting for Pride Of Westbury since it's last start, but I was expecting it to run in a provincial maiden, not a city race. Even so, I think he could be a good each way chance. If you concentrate around numbers 3, 1, 9 & 4, then perhaps you'll be somewhere around the mark.

Tips:
3 POMPEII RULER ($2.00), 1 Irish Happiness ($5.00), 9 Pride Of Westbury ($5.00)

Ratings:
50.5 - 3 POMPEII RULER
45.0 - 1 IRISH HAPPINESS
44.5 - 9 PRIDE OF WESTBURY
43.0 - 4 Singsdubbs
43.0 - 6 Road To Athens
43.0 - 2 Veedub
42.5 - 5 Barig

FLEM R7: Quite a strong mares race, but I think that there are two obvious chances. Soul Diva's last two wins have been so commanding, that she goes on top. But Belzain is the class mare of the field and is the obvious danger. I think you could concentrate on these two and look mainly at 4, 2 & 9 for the placings.

Tips:
7 SOUL DIVA ($2.80) & 1 BELZAIN ($4.00)

Ratings:
56.5 - 7 SOUL DIVA
52.5 - 1 BELZAIN
48.0 - 4 Iris In The Glen
48.0 - 2 Amaroof
47.5 - 8 Skaters Waltz
47.0 - 9 Xaarbarella
45.0 - 10 Scone

GUNN R7: I have Top Beat, Campeche and Cool As You Can rated very close together. I feel that if you can find some value amongst these 3 horses it could be the way to go. If you work mainly around these 3 and numbers 9 & 7 for the placings, you should go pretty close.

Tips:
3 TOP BEAT ($3.50), 1 Campeche ($4.00), 5 Cool As You Can ($4.50)

Ratings:
41.0 - 3 TOP BEAT
40.5 - 1 CAMPECHE
39.5 - 5 COOL AS YOU CAN
37.0 - 9 Suntegic
36.0 - 7 Ochichi
35.5 - 8 Flash Pride
33.5 - 4 Chickawar

WOW! I've just backed Swinging Bachelor at Flemington paying $34.50!!! :D

I'm sorry I didn't let you guys in on the tip, but it was a 2 year old race with a lot of first starters and at the odds it was showing, I thought I must have been on the wrong track!!! :o

Think we are damned if we do and damned if we don't..... :(

Anyway good luck today.

Yeah, I may have missed the boat today. Me old mate Greg Ryan has already won 2 races today, but I tipped him in R7.

Meanwhile, a storm hits Flemington. Don't know what to think about Race 7 now. The weather is a real problem lately!!! Apparently, tomorrow's Morphettville meeting has been called off due to the heat!!! :eek:

Sorry. :o

Morphettville is off.

Eagle Farm & Gold Coast heavy with stewards to inspect in the morning...... talk about extreme.....

Disappointed with my tips today.

Yeah yesterday and today have been nothing to write home about. You must be still infront for January though? I'm enjoying both Stix and your tips, keep em coming :)

Yeah, just trying a few things out over the past couple of days.

As I said, I also liked Swinging Bachelor a bit in the first at Flemington today, but I chickened out of posting that tip on here. I'm very disappointed about that. Out of the 3 races I posted, Pompeii Ruler was the one horse that I was most confident about and he won easily, so that wasn't too bad.

Saturday Jan 21

Geez, I don't know how this will go. A lot of shorties today unfortunately. :o

E.FM R3 - 2 GIACOMETTI
E.FM R8 - 1 STARLACTIC
RAND R4 - 5 CRUMS (danger 1) (5,1,4 - 3,2)
SAND R4 - 1 DISMISSAL (dangers 8 & 3)
SAND R5 - 2 STICKPIN (danger 8) (2,8,3,4 - 7,10)
SAND R7 - 5 LEONURUS (danger 1) (5,1,6,2)

What a hopeless start!!! :(

I have a feeling that today may be the last day that I ever post tips, ratings and such on this forum.

I'm afraid to say that I simply do not have the right temperament to be a tipster. I just worry FAR too much about losing or more especially other people losing off my tips. I actually get quite stressed about it. And it affects my judgement badly, ruining my confidence (which isn't great anyway) and causing me to pick horses that I personally would never back (Giacometti today), and leave out others that I do (Swinging Bachelor yesterday). Look at today. I've tipped a whole stack of shorties, because I was simply too scared to go looking for value.

So for my own sake and for the sake of anyone who might follow my tips, I think I'll quit while I'm behind.

I think I'll just stick to running a few comps on here. That's a lot more fun and not anywhere near as stressful. :o

settle down sporty ...if anyone follows your tips they do so at their own risk...i've hardly picked anything all year ...i couldnt care less ..if my tips are losing then i am,, so i'm in the same boat..

why dont you list some tips but explain why you like them ...that way people can see your reasoning and judge it themselves ..similar to what sven , Luv2 , Mr ed and i do..
you do a good job Sportz ...didnt you just get stickpin ??
you cant pick them all ...especially on a day like today ..

ps...I've just got some mail about udder brilliance from a guy at the track,,expected to run well...worth an e/w me thinks .. (enter at own risk)
lol

The state of some of the tracks the past few days probably hasn't helped.

Mav,

I'm afraid I don't have anywhere near the confidence that you or some others on here do. And any loser that I tip, knock my confidence around even more. It would be better for my own punting (and for my stress levels) if I didn't post any more tips.

your just to nice for your own good Sportz..

the bushman got up ..MR Ed would be happy if he's still around..he always liked that horse..

so much for my man at the track..donkey gave me dustwind the other day that did nothing....

its going to be one of those days...i'll be nice an easy slab bets today unless something jumps out at me at good value..

WHAT THE.........
 

Spotz, Maaaaateeeee...... what dribble are you going on with ????

I don't wann p*ss in your pocket..... but.....Your tips are vary very very consistent and exteremly reliable. IMHO You are an excellet analyst and I hope you get to read this.... just hope you'er not purched on the Westgate Bridge (if in Melbourne - don't know any landmarks around your area - sorry !) ... gazing down....... DON'T JUMP !!!! :D

Slap yourself in the face and WAKE UP FELLA.....

I for one enjoy your tips and follow them and the do very well, thank you very much..... anyway your a big boy and my 2c worth won't make an ounce of s*it to you as to whether you keep posting tips or not..... but tomorrow is another day.....

Be Good Fella

Query
 

Hi Fella

What I find funny (well absolutley bizzare!! ) is that no one has razzed you (except maybe me) about not posting your tips....

I think it's a waste.... even if you did call me a "desperate".......

Anyway.... what is the story?

Probably because the tips just weren't good enough and nobody's missing them. Or people just realise that it's everyone's own personal choice whether they post tips or not.




As I said, I'm afraid I just don't have the right temperament to be a tipster. I know it's hard to understand, but believe me, it's a big weight off my shoulders now that I'm not posting tips on here. I feel more relaxed and my own punting has improved as a result.

Stix, I'm very sorry if you're disappointed at me not tipping any more.

Make no sense to me............. that is all....... no sense....

Not at all convinced......... at all !!!

Yep i agree with what Mav and Stix have said Sportz. Post your thoughts, everyone else be damned. If they have a problem let them post it with their reasoning. Heck they may make a valid point and save us all, if they have nothing to contribute then stuff 'em.

For what it's worth, i see both yourself and Stix in your respective threads have been worried as to your results of late. I walked away from posting, tipping and punting on these Nags some time ago as i needed a break. I was finding the results at that time too confusing and was struggling myself. I feel slightly vindicated in my decision when i see that i was/am not the only one. Not that i am happy to see you guys struggle with form but perhaps you could take heart in the fact that i don't believe it to be a problem specific to you guys in particular. Sh1t, if i was a 500kg+ beast i'll tell ya the last thing i would want to be doing is running flat chat around some track with some little a-hole on MY back slapping me on the backside in 30 degree weather. I get puffed walking down the shops for a pack of smokes and a couple of stubbies, LOL.

Anyways enough talk, time to fire up for the upcoming Autumn carnival, which i would hope to see yourself and the Stix-ster knee deep in.

****************** and best wishes boys.
Mad.

Oh yeah, one more thing. Now that i'm back i'll take over posting all the useless Nags and you guys can get on with finding winners. Just keep a sneaky eye out for my selections and you'll know what to avoid. :p

Great, just what I need, a good source of selections to Lay :-)

LMAO crash. Good to see you're back mate. The all knowing powerful powers that be had you on vacation last time i was here. The handbrake was doing your posting if i remember correctly.

As for punting, i've often heard the ladies say i was a great lay! Does that count? Either way stick with me mate and you're sure to get screwed.

Mad and Crash have probably got it right.Tipping is a fun thing.
I use Sportz Mav Stix and Testa to verify some of my bets, but no way do i take them as gospel.
Those that include summaries are very useful.
Keep posting dude and when your tips miss, nobodys perfect , at least you have the nads to give it a shot:D

Gday Sportz...

I dunno.... I don't think it has too much to do your demeanour, but rather I think that you have set the Bar too high.. And when you don't attain that level you get down on yourself a bit... Lower the bar a bit mate and things may improve for ya

I think that you are one of the better form analaysists/ratings men around the place... that I know of at least. This time of the year (summer) is notoriously hard for finding winners.. Things at >33 seem to find the line with regualrity.. New horses are starting to run around and there is always the next great thing to knock the wind out of your tipping sails.

I am happy with about 28% on top winning at about 3.9... That keeps the head above water.. don't forget you are trying to beat a 20% (approx) takeout from the totes, so shop around... Have an account with as many totes you need to... Especially the one that operates from an aussie territory offshore.. can't reccommend it any higher.. they have a maximum 5% takeout... that makes it so much easier... with decent turnover it drops to abut 2.5%

I think you look for a much higher win % from your selections. but to my way of thinking that isn't really achievable long term, just my opinion... I know favs win about 30 - 33% of the time, but you end up drowning slowly by backing them long term. Your selections I am pretty sure are profitable long term and are usually backed by sound principles.

There are people here who really enjoy your tips ( I"m one of em) And I don't think any of them with half a brain would hold you to account if they fall over from time to time.. ofcourse there are always the narks.. but bu**er em.

Throw those tips out there everyday safe in the knowledge that you are indeed helping someone.. thats the way I think with the ratings I publish.. Last few days have seen a lean run, but I KNOW that long term they will be fine... Your tips are certainly much the same.. they WILL come good.. so keep em up.. Don't be down on yaself....

SPORTZ
 

Your picks and others are a very useful guide to me here in NZ. Remember we all miss with our various ways of picking winners - we are only human....lol

Please keep putting your selections up on here.

Cheers, Eddie

Has anyone really stopped to analyse why they post tips on this forum?

Is it really a desire to help all those free loaders who contribute nothing or is it really an ego trip.?
In my opinion it is an ego trip and when the tips go bad, the ego is deflated and we bail out.
If the hours spent analysing form resulted in long term profit, why would you post your selections on a forum for free.
For that reason nobody should take anyone's tips seriously but rather see it as no more than a game where posters compete with each other to see who can score the most brownie points and gain acceptance amongst their peers.
When I stopped posting due to a perceived lack of interest or acknowledgement of my efforts, I realised also that I was guilty of not acknowledging the efforts of others as well.
Perhaps some life could be breathed back into this forum if the real experts, the owners, posted some free quality information on a daily basis.

Imagele,

Remember that old saying: "Nothing improves the chances of a horse more than being its owner!" :)