Hi Westman, Do you have your list maybe I can compare to reduce my selection and have more confident.

I would just look at backing a few different horses for the win, its so dam hard to pick a trifecta in a MC when really up to 15 horses could win... every year there is a smokey in the placings nothing would surprise me this year either

Efficient and Yeats
 

Hi tmathe,

If you want to calculate by speed, Pop Rock has a better time compare to Maybe Better. 2-33.1 vs 2.35.86 but on weight term is 54Kg vs 57Kg. that in Japan vs Australia.

Watch the times from Japan the clock doesn't start until something like 20 metres into the race so the have a start on the clock meaning they already have a head of steam up when the clock starts rolling, Or atleast this is what I have heard and the sources are usually fairly reliable.

I agree on Yeats and his times he has run they are terribly slow has to put some sort of query over the horse doesn't it.

G'day e'one,


Just thought i'd share... spoke with mums friend today (a clairvoyant)
Ive always valued her opinion as she has an amazing history of success
In the cups over the years, i could talk about it all day.

Anyway she has said that a Grey horse will definately win this years cup.

Looks like Geordieland & Efficient are the only ones that come under Grey.....

They will do me.


Good luck Everyone

What do you blokes think about Dolphin Jo?

When it won at Flemington, what distance was it over? Where can I obtain this information from?

Cheers

april 25th 2006

Dolphin Jo won Flemington VRC St Leger Listed 2800m carrying 56.5 kgs

any newspaper form guide should give you all this info

Thanks for your help Chuck!

where ya pending the day chuck,randwick????
i used to go there every year when i lived down there

Dazz, There is good news and bad news....
If you have already bet it's bad news....Geordieland is a grey but Efficient is a bay isn't it ?
You show a lot of confidence posting this so I believe you when you say she has amazing success in the past, and this has certainly thrown a spanner in my tri's as I have Geordieland as a placing and Efficient tired mid field, poor thing.

Go the greys!!
 

G'day Dazz! That clairvoyant is most likely my aunty :) small world ;)

Well after much deliberation over this race I have come up with this and all I can say is good luck from what I can see Yeats has some major question marks but alot of very good judges are talking it up so who really knows.

1. Maybe Better: I have heard everyone say he maynot settle my only worry is from the inside gate he might get squeezed up early which could fire him up if he can avoid early trouble he will go very close to taking this race out he has been hitting the line with authority and is in exceptional form with one of the best trainers going around in charge, My only worry is Munce I know he is a great jockey but he hasn't ridden this bloke before hopefully he and Steve Arnold can have a good talk about the horse just to sort out his quirks.

2. Geordieland: I really like Jamie Osbourne he is a very good trainer in England and with what he has said about this horse it is impossible to leave him out his form reads solidly just a matter of whether or not Dettori can bring some of his Breeders Cup riding form here for a change.

3. Glistening: This horse is massive overs he beat Geordieland home in the Ebor Englands main handicap staying race and although he does meat Geordieland slightly worse at the weights from that race this was the horse hitting the line the hardest of anything in the race. Seamer doesn't hurt it's chances maybe he can find some of his old form here and cause I boilover.

4. Mandela: I was on him at Geelong when he won the cup and although it was supposed to have been a leaders track they did run along a bit in the race and he really let down nice on the turn, I wsn't aware that Craig Williams was actually staying with him for the Cup but it can only be a bonus for him his breeding says he should handle the trip and the 2nd to Xcellent in the NZ Derby reads well to if he can take the next step he will be very hard to run down here.

5. Tawqeet: Noone can knock this horses lead up form he settles so well and has a nice turn of foot for a stayer the question here is whether the handicapper may have caught upto him, I know Hayes has said all along this was his target but he has copped 2.5kgs worth of penaltys for this race and only very good horses over come that time will tell i guess, I won't be backing him but i would be leaving him out of my trifecta.

6. On A Jeune: Not a horse I have ever been a fan of but if he reproduces last years run he wins this another I won't be backing but will have in my trifecta.

I am taking on Pop Rock and Delta Blues one because of the Jockey and the other because of the way it hung in the Caulfield Cup which cost it the race and now it goes to a journey it has never been over I'll take my chances there, I don't like any of Lloyd Williams horses bu if someone held a gun to my head and made me pick one of them it would be Efficient I think he has more chance of getting the trip than the other 2, Activation had every chance in the Caulfield Cup in fact i am shocked at the flack Rodd copped for the ride the horse simply wasn't good enough it actually hit the lead if you look at the over head shot and got passed by 3 horses again 1 which had been 3 and 4 wide the trip he has no chance of running 2 miles IMO.

There were a couple of others I wouldn't mind including but you can't have them all they were Art Success, Short Pause (his english form reads well for such a big price), Kerry O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo.

Good Luck everyone I think we will all need it (I am having something on my top 4 Selections)

Efficient is definitely a Grey probably the 1st I have heard of by Zabeel

My mum-in-law is a clairvoyant, I wonder!?

First name's not Joyce by chance?

From Racenet:

High drama for favourite on Cup eve
The Melbourne Cup favourite Tawqeet has pulled a plate on the eve of the $5 million G1 Emirates Melbourne Cup.
Hayes confirmed the horse pulled his near fore plate on the way to the pool where he was to swim this afternoon but he is confident it wont stop the Caulfield Cup winner’s charge into tomorrow’s great race.
”He sprung a shoe and actually pulled a bit of skin away from the hoof wall which is common,” Hayes said.
”It is something you would rather not happen the day before a race.
”They pull shoes of every day, it is not a huge thing.
”If it wasn’t the Melbourne Cup favourite you wouldn’t know about it.”
Hayes has elected not to replate Tawqeet until tomorrow morning to ensure he gives the horse its best chance to face the starter tomorrow.
”For precaution we put a decron boot on it,” He said.
”He will be replated in the morning as I can’t afford him to pull another shoe off as there may not be enough hoof wall to put a plate back on."
Racing Victoria Chief Steward Des Gleeson was informed of the problem by Hayes and the horse will be inspected prior to the race.
”Our Chief Vet, Dr John McCaffrey will inspect the horse before 8am tomorrow morning,” Gleeson said.

Nope!

Delta Blues - Mandela - Maybe Better for me.

There are many others with a better chance diggo, imo

I think with the likely good / dead at worse track there might be still a bias tomorrow. I know the rail is out alittle more but i can still see the inside on pacers having an advantage.

I'm looking for a horse that will settle better than midfield behind horses like Zabeat, Mandela, Delta Blues...
I have Yeats pushing forward after the hectic start settles down...he should be sitting 5th , 6th at worst and idealy only 2 wide with cover...his style to go forward before the turn and really poor on the pressure might be what wins him this race,,,he should have no trouble getting to the front and getting close to the rail ,,he'll be very hard to run down...

Pop Rock should be around the same with Olly smart enough with the bias to slot in somehere handy..i loved his run in CC and just seemed to be cruising..if i was Olly i'd follow Yeats where ever he goes..

Maybe Better should hit the rails and get that smother he needs to settle ,,,he'll be climbing all over tired horses aproaching the turn so Munce will want to be good..because i dont think Munce will make the mistake of digging him up to take a positon as he might fire up ..so he'll have a few horse in front of him and will need luck..

Gordieland will settle close to the lead and i've heard hes been thriving in work,,,i dont have much between yeats and this horse as he was just eased down behind yeats last time they met and looks to have improved..

..Tawqeet will need the Dunn magic but there no denying his will to win, he hits those gaps hard and although a distance risk in this field he still needs respecting..

I'd be keeping an eye on earlier races and seeing if they are making any ground from the back in the middle of the track..
horses like Zipping, Activation ,Efficient, Railings , Dizelle, Arts Success ,Headturner, On A Jeune will all find it that much harder to make ground if the track is anything like Saturday...
Its such a big field that its unlikely the tired horses up front will leave the rail ...so the Efficient Derby sprint lane might not be easy to find...

On Pace bias
Yeats 7.50
Pop rock 8.50
Maybe Better 10
Gordieland 11
Tawqeet 14
Delta Blues 15


Run On
I'd promote Activation,,if you like Tawqeet you have to love this horse,,,i know theres a distance query (so is tawqeet imo) but if they snick him back to last with Zipping and ride him super quiet.. ,,,i can see the 2 stable mates taking off together with Efficient,,maybe the 3 will track each other into the race as a team and all 3 have the ability to reel off the final sectional needed...
Zipping 8.50
Activation 9.00
Maybe Better 10
Tawqeet 11.
Pop rock 15

I'd be watching the 3rd race,,,i like Siamun in this but hes a backmarker....if Bay Story, Pride Of Westbury or Vengo lead and win it should give a better guide to the Cup...
Same as in the 2nd..i'm a fan of A Country Girl and Pekalan..both backmarkers....Star Mystic and Interche are the likely leaders ...

i'll be having fun with some Mulits for the cups...(already have Zipping 25's) but if it looks like a on pace bias again i'll be on Yeats if i can get better odds than the ridiculous odds he is at the moment i could be tempted as i do think he could sneak away with a break on this track.....In regards the other runners Maybe Better looks to be the only one worth backing at the 12's fixed ..

others around the day worth a looksy
(run on) A country girl, Siamun*, Imana, Bianca,Marju Snip/Rubijon,Stratton place
(on pace) Pride of Westbury,Pasiketera,Polar Bear

Sydney
Ledger,Radetzky March
Brissie
Myndos, Adavale Hornet
Adelaide
Pride Of Archway


Good luck Guys :)

Seems to be a big doubt over Efficient running.

Your on top of things there Sportz I was just on my way over to put that on here myself

Yeah, he's out!

just wondering how he track is playing? im at work and they arn't playing felmington on sky so i havnt been able to see the races yet. has there been any noticable bias on the fence?

Warning
 

D Hayes is playing confident about Tawqeets condition but I noticed D Dunn looks like he was gut shot and a vampire had sucked the life out of him!!
Interesting day!

Thats interesting, theres already been 2 grey horses win in the last 2 races! I didnt see the 1st race, the one that won that wasn't a grey was it?

She might be on to something here!

As efficient is out ... finals selections.

Maybe Better
Pop Rock
Mandela
Activation

Tawqeet is overated and this yeats horse is annoying me...

Greys
 

One of those might have been the one she saw!
What are the greys for the rest of the day?
Do you think the ever sneaky Hayes is messing with our heads and Tawqeet is the one?

Anyone can inform about the track is playing now?

seen 2 races, seems to be favouring the rail rather than out in the middle.

There coming from behind and well off the fence, opposite of saturday, the leaders are getting run over, i'm not going to back horses in front, on the fence for the rest of the day.

The vet just was on TV and he passed Tawqeet fit to run!
Fine, but my usual adage is : "when in doubt take them out!"
I realise that everything appears to be OK but I am very wary when there is any doubt over one of the favoured runners.
I, personally, will be reducing my "dutch book" wager on Tawqeet and spreading it over my other selected runners. In my opinion this shows the advantage of betting on the day rather than PP betting-the advantages are obvious-you can change or manipulate your wagers to suit youself rather being "locked-in" when you wager early on the PP markets. I recognise that the better PP odds give an assumed advantage but this is often offset by the dramas leading up to racetime!
It is a matter of choice.

Cheers.

as Tawqeet won the caul cup... most people think its a lock.. That run did not convince me enough... Its like Railings last year.... flopped in the melb cup after the caul...

Hayes does play with your head because he talked up Growl winning the caul cup... and when tawqeet won, all of a sudden growl was forgotten..

Ususally his other horse wins.. like Unabated did to Benko today...

So... ill put a dollar on short pause...

GEORDIELAND to win

GEORDIELAND / DELTA BLUES / YEATS / TAWQEET


GO YOU GOOD THING.


best of luck guys and gals.

Had $40 dollars on Delta Blues at 16-1 i should of waited and taken the $18 on the tote, i thought Pop Rock had him but he laid in and oliver had to staighten him up noticeably

well i got my trifecta up but i only got $350, was hoping for more :D

Least you got it.... but yeah... small divi this year....
I left delta out which costed me.... i left him out because they changed jockey..
Fool i am..

:eek:

on your post rabbitz no i didn't go to randwick this year, i've been sick over the last few days so have just stayed at home