Hi Mark,

Glad you were able to eek a profit on an extremely tough day.

For my part, it was the worst day seen in 60,000 races!

A loss of 26.05 units.

May Tally

568 wagers
4.86 units profit (less 5% commission)
0.86% POT

By contrast to:

April Tally

903 wagers
92.17 units profit (less 5% commission)
10.21% POT

While the month is not over, if I lose the 4.86 units profit for the month tomorrow, I'll stop and reassess the method. I'm not giving away any part of the huge profit in April I had.

On the other hand I have noticed some particular trends while live betting, that I want to investigate anyway. I feel that somehow a sliding scale needs to be introduced over the blanket scale I now have.

I'll keep those participants advised via email with an updated spreadsheet, when or if it's nutted out.

The implementation is going to be extremely challenging.

On looking at the data, it's best left to run it's course at this point.
I couldn't find anything to justify changing a winning formula.
Confident that either May could rebound into profit, or if not, June certainly will.
I think that it should be left to stand on it's own.

Mucking around with the data, or second guessing it on the basis of 2 weeks data, could do more harm than good.

Personally, I'll stop betting and watch if the May profit evaporates, but I don't think anything should be changed.

Today has begun a lot better - thank goodness.

Petulie bolts in @ $4.00 on Betfair - left alone by punters :D

All the support was for Morning Time which ran third.

Go Chrome..................15 units ahead here.

Mark,

Didya get Sister Jacinta @ $7.40 Betfair.

Same as the last one, she was left alone and drifted, while the money went on Marquis Diamond which ran third.

At this point I'm up around 17 units for the day and rolling along nicely.

I jagged 7.80. Got to 16.75 up, now down to 9.5 after 3 losses in the last 4 races.

Cleric 7.60

Yes, went a little downhill in the last few races.

11.10 units profit for the day though.

May Tally

602 wagers
15.96 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.65% POT

Versus

April Tally

903 wagers
92.17 units profit (less 5% commission)
10.21% POT


April/May Tally

1505 wagers
108.13 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.18% POT

A ways to go for May.

Quick update for you Chrome.
I started with a $600 bank, so $6 bets.
I've bet on 9 days, and won on 7 of them.
Turnover $1162, profit $301.32, or 25.93% POT.
Currently up to $8 bets.

Cheers
Mark

That's on around 193 live wagers?

That's very good going!

Possibly you're also getting some better prices by looking out for value, my results are just taking the best price with a minute to go.

Well done.

10.40 units profit today.

May Tally

627 wagers
26.36 units profit (less 5% commission)
4.20% POT

April/May Tally

1530 wagers
118.54 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.75% POT

A loss of 11.51 units today, after it was looking very good around 2:30pm.

May Tally

679 wagers
15.43 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.27% POT

(well behind target, but still in profit)

April/May Tally

1582 wagers
107.60 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.80% POT

Today, Sunday was an 8.35 unit profit.

I seem to be playing pogostick for May, with no real headway nor no real loss ensuing, but sooner or later it's going to turn dramatically one way or the other, still I'm happy to be in profit after some 1,634 live bets and a profit of nearly 116 units or 7.10% POT.

My actual unit profit is a little higher, as I have been reporting with 5% commission taken out, my commission rate is a lot lower, but for fairness sake, I wanted to post the starting rate of deduction.

Mark,

There have been 176 favourites @$2.00 or less opening for a profit of $17.20 units on laying.

Using my method on those shorties is showing less than half that profit, so I think you are correct and we should just lay all of those ones.

Interesting to note that the close @ $2.00 or less would also show an $18.20 unit profit laying.

So you can use that approach two-fold.

CP

If they are a lay, I'm happy to lay, but if the system says back, I stay out.

Today was a small loss of 3.11 units

Hi Chrome Prince not sure if you have the unitab ratings. If you have you may want to look at the drifters that are rated at 100 , and the firmers as well.

Yes, Crackone,

I have 'em, might be interesting to run that scenario when they coincide with the selections.
I have the theory that the result might be similar, but I'll run it tomorrow and post back the results.

Sorry Crackone,

I have to reneg on my posting, as I only have the metro ratings and it would take me too much time to download them all or even look them up manually.

As I said before, I have a feeling that the results might be similar.

If anyone wants to do it, then they can post it here.

A nice profit of 19.31 units today.

May Tally

785 wagers
40.14 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.11% POT

April-May Tally

1688 wagers
132.31 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.84% POT

P.S. Maximum win dividend still $8.00
*Average win dividend $3.40

Back to my very first posting on this thread, the hypothesis of the email is incorrect because it was a generality and assumed that you are going to back ALL firmers, or Lay ALL drifters.
By applying a little investigation, it can be proven that by selectively backing some firmers and laying others, and by selectively backing some drifters and laying others, a profit can be made over thousands of races, providing you are betting into low percentage markets.

Chrome These are my figures

198 Unitab rated 100
74 winners allup 37.37% S.R

102 Drifters
35 winners 34.31% S.R $3.48 Ave. div.

84 - 99 Unitab rated
142 Drifters
26 winners 18.30% S.R $3.96 Ave. div.
cheers

Thanks Crackone,

Makes for interesting thought.

Two observations:

1. I love laying odds on favourites over the jumps - anywhere in the world.
Two very short priced favourites over the jumps fizzled today.

2. A perfect example of what can be achieved when the price is too short on one, so the other becomes value.

A huge plunge on Star Touch in race 4 Strathalbyn $10.00 into $2.90
My method selected Alpine Storm which went from $2.15 to $4.40

Regardless of the outcome, Alpine Storm was almost a double overlay in my books @$5.70 on Betfair and 76% plus drift.

Alpine Storm just nosed out the plunge horse ;)

If we rule out the plunge horse for a moment, and look at the price of Alpine Storm, it becomes obvious. All we need is an ounce of edge and we have overs.

All fine and dandy to talk after the race, but patterns keep repeating over and over.

Here's a list of similar situations and the result:
Falvalea WON $5.80
Wesley Manor
Upper Echelon
French King
Estelle Collection
Fasnatic
Birthday Bash WON $4.30
Eyeteecee
New Tradition WON $4.50
Occurrence
El Maroo WON $7.80
Kohl
Easy Rocker WON $7.80
Al Spark
Letmeentertainyou
Monet Rules WON $6.40
Zamra
Water Captain WON $8.00
Snip 'N' Sox
Bitabiff WON $5.30
Amberino
McCloud
Next Adventure WON $5.10
Chart Topper
Cocoruru
Keen Commander
Secret Relations WON $4.92
Guerrouj
Pinions
All Ticker WON $6.80
Lindabrava
Yuba County
Litter
She's All Heart
Meking Dane
Sacred Moon
Commanding Victory WON $6.60
Glory Be
Big Daddy Cool
Anyways
Nicaragua
Synonym
Gallium
Classy Crystal
Foreign Capital
Definitely So
Commemorating
City Of The Czars
Pingo
Desert Lad WON $3.85
Indicted
Fingal Bay
White Diamonds
Diplomatic Force WON $8.00
Posadas WON $4.40
Testimonial WON $5.50
Regal Megan
Upilio WON $7.80
Spark Of Life
Indira Morning
Rich Az
Grondie
Tears I Cry
Peratin
Urbane Boy
Annoyed
Awe And Wonder
Hollaback WON $4.10
Hy Dream
********** Chimes
Kanalea
Kinroe WON $3.55
Four Beers Later
Just Curious
French King
World Ruler
Passenger WON $3.20
Sophistication WON $3.70
Regreagan
For Action WON $4.20
Hometown Legend
Zelt
Ponbar Diamond
Ugly Betty
Media Attention
Leica Plateau WON $5.20
Sweetmandy
Eton
Cavallo
Devil's Nite
De Coubertin
Margate
Waltz To Glory
Riveret WON $4.20
Medimist
Kariad
Kitz Lane
Racy Alice
Petulie WON $4.00
Sister Jacinta WON $7.40
Zimaretto
Emilyjoy
Belle Paris WON $5.30
Avoid Heathrow
Energizer WON $4.60
Brunelleschi
Blackford
Alpine Storm WON $5.70

End result is 108 selections under this scenario for a profit of close to 50 units or around 46& POT, with the maximum win dividend of $8.00

Another good day today Chrome.
By my count there were 20 horses to back today of which 7 won, and 23 lays of which only 6 won.
The prices I took gave me around 8 units profit.

3.09 units profit for me today.

I had 25 lays for only 7 winners
I had 22 bets for 6 winners

But I stuck to the original rules which included wagering on odds on shots.

Will post full tally later tonight, as I'm off to a meeting.

May Tally

832 Wagers
43.22 Units Profit (less 5% commission)
5.19% POT

April / May Tally

1735 Wagers
135.40 Units Profit (less 5% commission)
7.80% POT

2.09 units profit today.

A shocking Friday..

21.79 units loss, still up 20 plus units for May though.

:eek:, :eek: and double :eek:

Bad luck Chrome. Onward to June.

Hi Angry Pixie,

Just about every movement went against me yesterday.

Looking at the figures the two worst betting days are Wednesdays and Fridays, but I can't come up with any concrete reasons why.

Saturday's Result: 4.27 unit loss

Sunday's Result: 3.13 unit loss

May Tally

986 wagers
17.58 units profit (less 5% commission)
1.78% POT

April May Tally

1889 wagers
109.76 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.81% POT

Going to add a slight revision to the rules in June - just a marginal adjustment to the percentages

My guess would be lowering the drift % for a back, to say 30.

O.K. Here's the long explanation.....

I had stopped betting yesterday after May's profit evapourated to nil, as I wasn't about to give back any profit from April.

There have been some really strange results for May that defy all previous trends, so we must be flexible and adapt. Rather than backfit or completely change a previously winning formula, I have merely shifted the parameters slightly to smooth out the radical highs and lows to return a more consistent result.
In other words, take a little off the very high profits, to put back into the high losses.

I'm now laying ALL firmers and DRIFTERS under 41%, and backing only DRIFTERS over 40%, so the Drift component remains unchanged.

* I have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with strike rate, it's to do with average dividend, people have been pounding the firmers in May, unlike anything in the last 58,000 races!!!

Here's how it pans out using the original rules:

1930 wagers
85.38 units profit
4.42% POT

The POT here is less than half of the previously published POT, so it tells a very descriptive story.

Here's how it pans out using the revised rules:

1930 wagers
90.17 units profit
4.67% POT

This translates to an April profit of 35.34 units and a May profit of 54.61

So the massive profit in April, won't be seen again unless people abandon plunging onto firmers. I did say that people should be taking the available price or better and not taking less, but it hasn't worked out that way at all - it appears people have been taking a lot less just to get set. It may not be those following this method, it may in fact be others as well - who knows. :(

As previously stated, I stopped betting yesterday and resumed today under the new parameters, this resulted in a 12 unit loss today, but half the races were abandoned.

The new approach should translate well to previously ordinary Saturday's as well.

Time will tell.

Hi Chrome

Just so I've got this right, you'll be laying all opening favourites unless they drift by 41% or more.

Did you lay Amberino on Saturday? If so, are you able to have a look at your stats for lays that drift less than 40% and are no longer favs. I think the problem is that some favs drift into the 'too big to lay' region, but you are still laying them. How much have you lost since 'black' Saturday 19/5. Not bragging but I'm ahead 15 units since then, not great but better than losing.

Mark

Yes Mark you've got it right.

Yes, I layed Amberino on Saturday as the drift was only 30%

Since black Saturday I've lost 23.39 units sticking to the rules.
You've done very well being selective, and I suspect you've got some better prices than me.

I've checked the "too big to lay" suggestion, but the overall stats aren't reflecting that, although May certainly is.

Taking all lays greater than $5.00 at the jump, the profit is some 22 units for 78 wagers. Whereas May, it's breakeven.

However, I do think you're onto something.
I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible, but perhaps when the lays get to $5.00 and upwards, the price accepted on Betfair should be within a certain percentage of the final IAS price.

Definitely food for thought, but I've only recorded the Betfair prices on the actual winners.

I don't know how we should tackle this, but probably avoid the lay if you can't get within 20% of the final price????

Make that 10% ;)

Actually you could make a case for running two strategies under the one banner - the fluctuating parameter and then the price available parameter.

I think your own decision making process may have subconsciously or consciously been doing this anyway, so you are some 35 units better off than me now :eek:

This is where I admit that although I have been using your idea, and thank you for it, I have still been doing my ratings, and then betting accordingly.

The 'too big' principal is what I thought you meant when you said not to go chasing prices. As the main aim (I believe) is to mostly lay favs that perhaps shouldn't be, then chasing them out for the sake of laying doesn't sit well. I used Amberino as an example because if my memory serves me correctly you would have had to have gone to something like 8.20 to lay it. To me that is madness, as after all, IAS did have it opening fav, and again if I remember correctly if it had drifted one more tick it would been a back. But I don't know that laying every fav unless they drift 41% is the answer. Think back to last Wednesday when Blue Grouse won the last at Ballarat. It opened equal fav and even after firming I was able to get 5.80. Under your revised rule this would become a lay, and a terrible result. I realise this is only one example but I think you can see what I'm getting at.

I don't think that I've been getting better prices than you but I agree I have been very selective. Today I bet in only 6 races for a 1 unit profit, but I think that betting in every race would have yielded a loss of approximately 12 units. (just remembered you've already said this). On Monday I had 11 bets for 1 unit profit, where betting in every race I would have lost roughly 20 units, and probably given it away.

I sort of use the 20% rule but am not rigid about it. If I like a horse and the system says lay, I simply wait for the next race, similarly if the system (original rules) says back and I don't like it I won't bet. This in particular has saved me from backing a lot of shorties that have been beaten.

I've also had some "half bets". The last at Wyong was a good example today. The opening fav was Enz Of Time @ 4, it blew to 8, and I took 12.5 on BF even though I gave it little chance of winning. So I had half my normal unit.

You may not be interested but you've done me a favour with this system so I will hopefully be able to return the favour. If you like I will email you my ratings for tomorrows races and you may want to incorporate them into your betting. In the last 2 days I have had 3 half bets and got it right twice, and I've passed on 24 races and been right 16 times. Fluke that they're both 66% in my favour. You don't have to be right that often when you're staying out of lays that win.

Mark,

Well that answers one of my queries, I couldn't get my head around how you must have been getting such better prices than me, other than you were filtering further from my criteria.

When I mentioned chasing prices, I meant basically take the offered price but if it goes against you too dramatically or you can't get matched, don't comprimise more than a few cents. But yes, it does apply as far as percentages go.

As far as Amberino goes, I got stung for $8.40, the final IAS being $6.50, so in retrospect and considering what we've posted today, it should have been a bet rather than a lay. Take just a few of these each month and it makes a big difference.

As a matter of fact, there have been quite a few of these such cases in May that could have been profited from.

Come In Spanner
Lakeful
Gunna Happen
Danzylum
Banksdale
Char

etc etc just in the last few days.

And of course Ocho Rios today :(

I'm glad that no matter how you use it, it's been of some benefit ;)

You've already helped me refine some things in return, so thanks to you also!

I have a feeling that the initial theory still stacks up, but is predominantly dependant on the price you get or have to lay at, and depending on what's available, can reverse the strategy purely because of prices and value.

Thanks again Crome as you said I have used your system and have found another one by doing so.
ps. don't lay those 100 raters