the one they have to beat!

May end up depleted in quality [thanks to EI :( ] but for many still has that mystique!

Mystery number :
20-9-21-5

zipping was unreal today, but making up ground on which horse????
thinking it might just get some better odds about master o

Great run. Still, after a 3 day turn around for the cup? I'll go for MO and Galllic I think.

blue tigeroo

7-3.00 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP 3200m
 

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 TAWQEET (USA) David Hayes D Dunn 3 57
2 BLUE MONDAY (GB) David Hayes N Rawiller 14 56
3 BLUTIGEROO Colin Little L Nolen 12 55.5
4 GALLIC (NZ) Graeme Rogerson S W Arnold 24 55.5
5 RAILINGS Roger James G Childs 18 55.5
6 EFFICIENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson M Rodd 10 54.5
7 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith C Brown 7 54
8 TUNGSTEN STRIKE (USA) Amanda Perrett Darryll Holland 2 54
9 ZIPPING Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 22 54
10 BLACK TOM David Hayes P A Hall 21 53.5
11 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien V Duric 17 53.5
12 PURPLE MOON (IRE) Luca Cumani D Oliver 15 53.5
13 LAZER SHARP David Hayes B Shinn 16 52.5
14 ON A JEUNE Andrew J Payne K McEvoy 4 52.5
15 SCENIC SHOT Daniel Morton M J Zahra 19 52.5
16 SARRERA Michael Moroney S Murphy (a) 23 52
17 SCULPTOR (NZ) Peter Mckenzie Ms L Cropp 8 52
18 DOLPHIN JO Terry & Karina O'Sullivan Ms C Lindop 1 51.5
19 DOURO VALLEY Danny O'Brien J M Winks 13 51.5
20 SIRMIONE Bart Cummings P Mertens 20 51.5
21 THE FUZZ (NZ) David Hayes C Williams 11 51.5
22 ESKIMO QUEEN (NZ) Michael Moroney C Newitt 5 51
23 PRINCESS COUP Mark Walker N G Harris 9 51
24 MAHLER (GB) Aidan O'Brien S Baster 6 50.5

MELBOURNE CUP (FNL FLD) 06/11
 

MASTER OREILLY 5.50 2.12
ZIPPING 8.00 2.75
MAHLER 10.00 3.25
PURPLE MOON 10.00 3.25
PRINCESS COUP 11.00 3.50
SIRMIONE 12.00 3.75
MAYBE BETTER 14.00 4.25
EFFICIENT 16.00 4.75
GALLIC 18.00 5.25
ESKIMO QUEEN 26.00 7.25
ON A JEUNE 26.00 7.25
BLUTIGEROO 31.00 8.50
DOURO VALLEY 31.00 8.50
SCULPTOR 31.00 8.50
THE FUZZ 31.00 8.50
TUNGSTEN STRIKE 31.00 8.50
BLUE MONDAY 41.00 11.00
DOLPHIN JO 41.00 11.00
TAWQEET 41.00 11.00
LAZER SHARP 61.00 16.00
SCENIC SHOT 81.00 21.00
BLACK TOM 151.00 38.50
SARRERA 151.00 38.50
RAILINGS 301.00 76.00

look for the mudlarks!

ok. thanks i will

ok. now down to about 15 horses. now what?

I'm down to 4 winnings chances

Blue Monday
Zipping
Master O'Reilly
Purple Moon

and 6 other place chances

Gallic
Efficient
Maybe Better
The Fuzz
Eskimo Queen
Princess Coup

Between dead and slow the track manager reckons.

Early Thoughts lean me towards

Zipping > Master O Reilly
> Purple Moon, Princess Coup, Sculptor, Maybe Better
> The Fuzz, Mahler, Sirmione and any other horse

Omen tip is, Maybe Better

Colours: Yellow + Black = Jockey: Brown :D

Depends on what the track ends up, but i'm looking towards Blue Monday , Maybe better, Zipping and Bluetigeroo to win from Purple Moon and Princess Coup

couldn't get the master in your top 6 goldie ???

Hi all,

Any comment on the race pattern?. Who will lead and who are the back comer?. Do chip in your thought. Thanks.

This race is starting to look interesting the question is can Master O'Reilly handle a 2.5kgs rise in the weights from the Caulfield Cup compared to everyone else he met in that race, As impressive as the win was there were some excuses for the chasers and that is a nice turn around in weight out to 2 miles.

Purple Moon: looks very hard to beat as far as I am concerned his trainer is world class and by all reports he is flying got the right jockey on board as well as he usually gives a good ride in this race.

Maybe Better: He looks dour enough and the rain around won't hurt him but I must admitt I am going to find it real hard to back him I keep finding excuses for this bloke and at this point a bet on him on tuesday will be nothing more than a nice saver bet plain and simply I have ridden along this far might aswell follow to the final hurdle stranger things have happened.

Blutigeroo: I like this bloke here I know he ran in the Sydney Cup and was beaten but he has been trained for this trip this time around not to mention from memory I believe he loves it wet (I could be wrong) either way he is as good a roughie as there is in this I feel.

Sirmione: Can't believe I am saying this but he is not out of this drops beautifully in weight and is improving atleast yesterday was a shock tuesday won't be for me, he most likely will start unders however because of the Cummings factor so he will be included in multiples but that is about as far as it goes for me also likes the cut out.

Efficient: I still feel that he is a better chance than Zipping maybe I am nuts but he is more dour and will stick out the trip I consider Zipping a doubt of doing that, a bit of rain doesn't hurt his chances either another I have felt was right in this from he start not going to leave him out now.

Master O'Reilly: I know he won the Caulfield Cup but the penalties he has gotten just might catch up with him here, one thing to say here as with most races this spring expect the unexpected cause it has happened in nearly every major race.

This are not my final picks just quickly going over some that I like I am entertaining Mahler, Blue Monday, Gallic among others I just want to sit down and review some races and form before I get to crazy will post again either tomorrow or tuesday.

The Leaders in the race will most likely be Mahler, Tungsten Strike? (I don't know someone had mentioned that he can take up a position), Sculptor & Lazer Sharp wouldn't completely shock either in a race like this there will be speed from somewhere eventually I do expect Mahler to hit the lead though.

I backed Purple Moon before it ran in the CC and i got a very healthy price im now worrying with the state of the track it could possibly be slow by tuesday and i know for a fact that Purple moon doesnt really like it wet all his runs O/S have been on firm going and the one run on Soft was unplaced. It wouldnt surprise me to see a 15-1 or higher win as nothing really stands out. I have learnt that CC form over the years is the best lead up race but im still not convinced with MOR win. Try On a Jeune,Efficient,and Gallic as roughies although i will be cheering loud on Purple Moon!!

Spar, just my gut feeling tells me that he's won his race, the CC,[impressive as he was] Maldivian and Eskimo Queen scratched at the barriers, the race just opened right up for him,doubt if he get a run like that again

11-MASTER O'REILLY
4-GALLIC
22-ESKIMO QUEEN
6-EFFICIENT
24-MAHLER
8-TUNGSTEN STRIKE

I've finally had a good look at the form today and boy is this a weak race. You could build a house with all the hype [it's that solid] talking this race up in the media.
---------------------------------------------------------
MASTER O'REILLY
The one to beat on recent form.
ZIPPING 6g
Won a G2 a year ago and had a 3rd in a G2 over 1600m at MV Sept. this year.
Strung 6w together in a row in 2005 in modest races, but only 2w out of 10 since. Has been consistently racing above his class in my opinion. Keeps looking good but never goes on with it [you know what I mean]. Might place.
PRINCESS COUP 4m
Needs a good or dead 4 at worst.
MAHLER
Only had 6 starts and too inexperienced I think for such a big event.
PURPLE MOON 5g
Won over the distance but it was a weak $6k race. Best efforts: Won at York in Aug. over 2800m HCP 280K and won a Listed race $45k. Place chance for me.
SIRMIONE 4g
An Encosta de Largo smokey from Bart who has come good, right on queue. If sneaky old Bart is ever going to win another MC this is his big chance, as it is as weak as water.
MAYBE BETTER
Been up for 7 runs this prep. and the form has been woeful. Won a G3 a year ago but hasn't fired a shot since, not even a place. Maybe never again in this life.
EFFICIENT 4g
Inefficient and bored with racing. Done nothing since last year but could win a country C1 to pay a few feed bills perhaps?
GALLIC 8g
A Zabeel horse. Age is a worry but going strong. Barrier is another big worry. Can place or even win if it gets lucky enough from b24 ?
ESKIMO QUEEN 4m
Another one bored with racing and going nowhere in this life. Try back to own sex.
ON A JEUNE 7g
On a hiding to nothing. Apart from a 3rd 1st up at Balaklava last year, hasn't won or placed since 2005. Not even in a miserable $20k race.
BLUTIGEROO
Name sound like 'Glue' dosn't it? Hasn't gotten closer than 7ths. this prep. from 6 starts, but did win a G1 at Rosehill in March this year and 1 lth. off Gallic over Cup distance for a 5th. in a G1 in May. Dead or slow is OK. Place chance.
DOURO VALLEY 6g
Another by Ecosta de Largo and at least the form has been consistent and good this year [a rare thing among a lot of these runners]. Wet OK and a winning or place chance for sure.
SCULPTOR 5h
A heavily raced horse [44 starts]. Has never won a Group race in 10 Group race attempts in NZ [he placed once in a G2 in 2005]. The fact he won a G3 on Sat. is a clear indication of how bad this season's runners have mostly been. OK in the wet.
THE FUZZ
Peaked start before last in my opinion and needs a spell.
BLUE MONDAY 7g
Last win was a weak G3 over 2200m 14 mths ago. Considering the competition here, a place chance?
DOLPHIN JO 5g
Form OK. Beat the Fuzz at Flemington 3 starts back but has been up for 7 starts. If he has one more good run in him he might place or even win this as he ran a 2nd [New Kid in Town/Dolphin Joe/Sentire] 5th up at the distance at Sandown in the slow last prep. and Sandown form is good Flemington form. He'll grow and extra leg on the wet track and is a win or place chance.
TAWQEET
Last win was a over a year ago. A bit of an improvement last start but has been racing like a donkey who doesn't want to be there.
SCENIC SHOT
Last start was a shocker and probably needs a spell.
------------------------------------------------
No thanks:
TUNGSTEN STRIKE ?
LAZER SHARP
BLACK TOM
SARRERA [heavy tracker].
RAILINGS [how did he get in?]
-----------------------------------------------
My early selections in order:
MASTER OREILLY, DOURO VALLEY, DOLPHIN JOE, SIRMIONE, GALLIC, BLUTIGEROO, PURPLE MOON

Considering the weights, odds and the Sandown form over this distance in the slow, I think Dolphin Joe is a good e/w smokey.

M&M's here for the quinella... Master O'Reilly and Purple Moon.

Master O'Reilly
Gallic
Maybe Better
Sculptor

contrary to everyones thoughts i believe Master O'reilly has peaked. I know he's racing well but i dont know if he'll get the 3200m especially since the caulfield cup was his go. he definitely still one of the top chances but i think the strong run in the caulfield cup may have hurt his chances for this race.

im probably wrong but IMO Master and Zipping should be swapped in betting.

(24) Mahler
(11) Master O'Reilly
(19) Douro Valley
(4) Gallic

I'm worried about MO's extra 3kg weight now in what's looking like a slow track for Tues. now. I was surprised to hear of more rain in Melb. I thought it would pan out to a dead by Cup time. Doesn't look like it even with the new drainage. If it stays a jog and sprint though [who is going to sacrifice themselves to put the speed on?], MO is still a good chance but maybe a bad bet at the odds. For a slow track I'm putting Dolphin Joe on top as a e/w bet.

Watch out for Sculptor if its slow

Gallic has only been beaten once on a dead track over 2000m

Tab no.4 Gallic
Tab no. 18 Dolphin Jo
Tab no. 11 Master O'Reilly
Tab no. 24 Mahler

blutigeroo...ive never bet bigger than 50 ...but ill be on this one for the place at the least ....i might splurge and go the big 100 ...scary

What's that great line by Gallic's trainer....it's broken down more times than Grandpops lawnmower.
Would be great to see him at the finish.

Very sharp work by Crash.
Very.

i agree, i'm not sure MOR is a winning chance and i have Zipping on top

4 GALLIC
7 MAYBE BETTER
9 ZIPPING
11 MASTER O'REILLY
17 SCULPTOR

Blue Monday slow track form reads 5: 2-2-0, seems to be improving as the distances get bigger. Last start on a wet track was 4l behind Collier Hill. In this field i think that is pretty good form. $41 - $11 seems pretty good value.

Plenty of rain today, but shouldn't be as much/any tomorrow and they are thinking clear Tuesday. Track could very well be dead(4) -> good(3). IMHO.

11 MASTER O'REILLY
23 PRINCESS COUP
24 MAHLER
21 THE FUZZ
9 ZIPPING

"SCULPTOR 5h
A heavily raced horse [44 starts]. Has never won a Group race in 10 Group race attempts in NZ [he placed once in a G2 in 2005]. The fact he won a G3 on Sat. is a clear indication of how bad this season's runners have mostly been."

For sure, it will hold up the next race [in any conditions]!

Purple Moon has been backed off the planet today! Lucky i got on before the CC im feeling very confident of at least a Top 3 finish??

Anyone got updated track conditions ?

Is it raining in Mebourne today ?

Makes it hard to do form the day before .... oh well.

Good luck.