Ascot - Race 3

No.
4 Checkpoint

Ascot - Race 6

No.
9 Iseethingsyoudon't

Ascot - Race 8

No.
3 Fanicio

Strathalbyn - Race 6

No.
1 Ace Or Joka

Mt Barker - Race 6

No.
1 Cargo Cruiser

Wangaratta - Race 5

No.
8 Artie Royale

Only the one play today, how many are still reading this thread by the way? If people have lost interest i'll stop bumping with my bets and simply post updates on the stats once a week or something if people are interested.

Echuca - Race 7

No.
9 Island Bar

Present!
 

I is evajb001, very interesting.

I'm just keeping an eye on it but a stats update would be good.

Keep going. The stat's are useless without seeing what they refer to.

You seem to have had more than your fair share of seconds lately. I hope the tide will turn for you soon.

I'm still monitoring evajb001.

I'd be interested in seeing a state by state breakdown of your results. I have found in my experience that NSW and VIC are generally the most reliable from a ratings perspective.

Plays for today gents, still $2.30 unit size, i feel some winners coming haha. Also i'll update my database tonight (if I get a chance) and provide you with a bunch of stats for those interested - based on my live betting and also historical stats including testing such as venue, day, saddlecloth, race no. etc.

Doomben - Race 7

No.
12 Seeking More

Doomben - Race 5

No.
6 Longshoreman

Gosford - Race 3

No.
5 Oceans

Gosford - Race 5

No.
8 Sweet Talkin Woman

Gosford - Race 6

No.
8 Gibraltar's Gem

Gosford - Race 7

No.
3 Ricci Royal

Sale - Race 5

No.
5 Phantom Brew

Sale - Race 6

No.
4 Now And Zen

Hi Guys,

Sorry I haven't got any stats posted yet, been quite busy with work and personal stuff. As soon as I get a chance i'll get everything in here, todays plays:

Rockhampton - Race 4

No.
7 Ten Seconds

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
2 Cyclone Billy

Wyong - Race 6

No.
3 Night Moves

Warrnambool - Race 6

No.
2 Run Diego

Port Lincoln - Race 1

No.
4 Going Strong

Port Lincoln - Race 6

No.
1 Son Of A Gun

Northam - Race 7

No.
3 Clever I Am

Plays for today, will post more later for other races:

Kyneton - Race 8

No.
1 Kid Dynamite

Orange - Race 4

No.
1 Private Taber

Another placing at Orange, i've been getting a LOT of 2nd and 3rd's lately which makes me think even though my SR is down compared to testing, is that I need to stick at it because i'm around the mark and it may just be an average month. Here are the last few plays for tonight:

Narrogin - Race 5

No.
4 Milnathort

Narrogin - Race 6

No.
4 Enshrined

Cranbourne - Race 7

No.
7 Montana Man

Sunshine Coast - Race 4

No.
1 Endless Tower

Here's todays plays gents. It's been a poor run lately, maybe i'm hoping or wishing but I just got a feeling there could be some winnings today:

Eagle Farm - Race 2

No.
2 Theft

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
1 Marked

Eagle Farm - Race 5

No.
6 The White Hope

Rosehill - Race 3

No.
3 Cantonese

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
6 Zauberflote

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
5 Leviosa

Moonee Valley - Race 2

No.
2 You Think So

Moonee Valley - Race 5

No.
5 Shihabi

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
13 Mouro

Moonee Valley - Race 7

No.
4 Hollywood

Morphettville Pk - Race 4

No.
6 Fidesdi

Morphettville Pk - Race 6

No.
6 Esprit De Bullet

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
8 Zai Jian

Ascot:

Ascot - Race 1

No.
2 Excelorada

Ascot - Race 3

No.
8 He's Starkers

Ascot - Race 4

No.
5 Moonlight Bay

Ascot - Race 5

No.
5 Kerrific

Ascot - Race 6

No.
12 Peggie's Dream

Ascot - Race 7

No.
1 Luke's Luck

Ascot - Race 8

No.
5 Barakey

Ascot - Race 9

No.
1 Luckygray

Ascot - Race 10

No.
2 Geiger Rio

Strike rate was up but odds were very unfortunately very poor.

The Paradox
 

This illustrates something that I find philosophically interesting. We "raters" use methods which are designed to find the winner of a race and which are not designed around 'price'. We leave it up to the ratings user whether or not they accept the price that is on offer.

However, many users want the strike rate (that a good rater generates) combined with odds that are an expression of the extreme unlikeliness of the happening coming to pass.

For the past few Saturdays I have circulated my subscribers (at no extra cost) with a "laylist" which sets out +/- 75 of the unlikeliest chances for Sat. Metro races. Yesterday we were pottering along as usual with <2% SR when my lay in Ascot R3 "The Regulator" crossed the line first @ $36+. That horse hasn't been closer to the front than 4 len. for a year and yet on a big race day it performed :-) This happenstance generated some acrimonious correspondence but illustrates the dichotomy that faces both the 'rater' and the 'punter'.

Should the punter be satisfied with an evens Fav. and doubling his money when it wins or should he join the search for the (unreachable in my opinion) goal of a 50% SR with $36 dividends ?? Which takes me back to my first paragraph.

All part of life's rich tapestry :-)

Food for thought indeed, demodocus!

I also find that immensely interesting from a human perspective - shines some light on what is achievable, what isn't.. also the illusions most us carry when it comes to assessing a horses chances given existing information v the returns we expect.

And also...
Is this a sport on which we can have a bit of a flutter or play out an obsession of a kind or something we prefer to focus on every day/week = 99% of punters?

OR

Can - should it be treated as a business in which to yield a return on an investment.. Just as owners / jockeys / trainers / bookies / race tracks-clubs / advertisers and the media do, and run as such as best we can = 1% of us??

Perhaps it is also a reflection of the nature of the gambler and also us as human beings.. In reality I suspect that most of us are looking for a free ride or windfall, easy way out, short cut to riches and early retirement, winning the jackpot etc but expect to give very little in return for the prize.


Come down to basic human nature. I suppose.. what would we do without it, eh (and can we do to change it, if anything?)


Cheers LG

Hi Guys, plays for today and below i'll reply to your posts:

Sunshine Coast - Race 6

No.
9 Mishani Warrior

Goulburn - Race 1

No.
1 All Conquering

Goulburn - Race 2

No.
1 Tiger Territory

Goulburn - Race 6

No.
3 Grecian Melody

Goulburn - Race 7

No.
17 Browden

Ballarat - Race 4

No.
10 Gypsy's Best

Ballarat - Race 5

No.
3 Fantastic Porscha

Ballarat - Race 7

No.
3 Hot Lover

Ballarat - Race 8

No.
4 Sertorius

Ballarat - Race 9

No.
10 Rare Bear

Clare - Race 6

No.
5 Tasteofenergy


Ok in relation to the discussion, my ratings/plays aren't built on chasing odds or strike rate, it's about finding the horse with all the right elements/form to win the race whether thats a $10 horse or a $2 horse. Maybe I should look more into only betting overlay's etc however my testing shows my current method works and overall my average odds make up for the strike rate.

For instance in the last week or so when I haven't been having the best time with my ratings in terms of being profitable, there's been a very high rate of placings. Also yesterday I unfortunately was playing with the track conditions at MV which lead me to bet Muoro instead of Lord of Brazil. So I went from potentially winning @ $6 odds to losing my stake which was quite annoying and something i've addressed. Also note while the win strike rate was back at a decent level (7 winners from 22 bets), there were also 8 placings in addition to that, a lot of them coming 2nd. This makes me feel like i'm certainly around the mark and that my ratings haven't suddenly got worse, but just that they are going through a rough patch which ill be riding out. Essentially if i'm on LOB yesterday and 1 or 2 more of those placings get up, i've had a really profitable day.

I by no means have a complete polished product which is why i'm live betting it with small amounts to adjust and tweak moving forward so I can eventually through more money at it. But I do feel i'm pretty close to where I need to be.

demodocus, i've got some queries on your service, am I able to email you?

You can find me here :-)

http://home.iprimus.com.au/atreus/

Kind regards,

Roger Biggs

Roger,

I don't want to side track this thread. My comment was in regards to evajb001's comments on being due for a few winners strike rate wise.

Ratings are only as good as the person using them and how they apply them to the odds available.

I only rate Saturday metro and yesterday was a great day, 35% top raters winning for a 30% POT at level stakes on all 41 races rated. Best was Classics $9.20 and Dolly Dolly $9.10 (when Marked was late scratching). Some very good 99 point raters as well including Akhedasset $7.10.

Without going into too much detail on the specifics of equations etc, how do you go about doing your ratings mattio? Mine are highly correlated to form, class and fitness which largely takes into account the horses last 3 starts. I'm interested as to how others approach it, I think my biggest drawback is I don't have a database to work from.

Todays Plays:

Hamilton - Race 6

No.
5 Gold Bridian

Scone - Race 5

No.
3 Domuar Miss

Hi evajb001,

I notice today's selections are between BM60-BM68. I think I recall previously you were restricting your bets to BM70+. Was this just for overlays or have you changed your minimum?

Hi Schmile,

I've always worked on anything above 62 (not including 62).

Here are today's plays after its been slim pickings the last 2 days:

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 3

No.
2 Clanga's Glory

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 5

No.
4 Aliberani

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 6

No.
1 Khalifa

Newcastle - Race 3

No.
6 Note To Bee

Newcastle - Race 4

No.
2 Boston Tea
Newcastle - Race 5

No.
1 Kukri

Newcastle - Race 7

No.
8 Fireball

Gawler - Race 7

No.
2 Eclair Rally

And Ascot:

Ascot - Race 7

No.
3 Terkel

Ascot - Race 9

No.
7 Not So Sweet

I don't work from a database either, I only have the records of my past ratings which is how I made changes to the formulas over a period of time. Basically I use multiple ratings methods to form an overall rating for each horse, each method is done differently and the final rating is designed to take the best elements from each method.

Track conditions play a part for me too, I lost Akhedasset as a top rater when I changed the track conditions but overall it doesn't matter because a 99 point overlay winner is just as good as a 100 point winner.

Keep at it mate, you are well ahead of the majority.

Thanks for the kind words mattio, i'm currently working pretty hard at trying to get a model together for the NBA to automate some bets on that. I've been succesfully betting it so far this season (Roughly +8 units) but enjoy the challenge of trying to find an edge with numbers and statistics. I'm way way behind the ball game compared to some of the guys on a forum I read though - apparently NBA is one of the hardest sports to build a model for as there is so much interest, any angle you think of to approach has already been done in one way or another. But i figured i'd give it a shot.

Once i either fall over or am successful with that, whatever comes first, I think i'll take another look at my horse ratings method and see where improvements can be made. For now i'm going to ride it out, i'm only betting small money anyway and don't want to give up on it just cos i've hit a rough patch.

Anyhow here are today's bets:

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
1 Speeding Dragon
Naracoorte - Race 6

No.
1 Hasta La Shamer

Albany - Race 6

No.
1 Nigel's Gold

Albany - Race 7

No.
4 Xaarablaze

Hi Evajb001,

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Have you stopped the overlay approach, or is that another strategy entirely?

The overlay approach I was using previously i stopped using. Mainly because i wasn't being disciplined enough with it and wasn't keeping track properly of my bets so it was a fruitless exercise in the end.

I think the overlay method is something I definitely need to incorporate into my betting in the future, but its just not something i'm using at the moment. Using overlays to manage bankroll is certainly a step in the right direction IMO. I also like the idea of betting to win 5% of bankroll as Bhwaghan suggested.

Hopefully once I finish up with this NBA stuff I can put my focus back on the horse racing side of things and look at some additional bankroll and betting options. Betting to overlays is a bit difficult for me as I don't have the markets open infront of me due to working. So my initial thoughts is something like betting to win 5% of bankroll based on my calculdated odds (using my ratings).

So I might rate something a $2.50 chance with a bankroll of $200 it would be a $4 bet. However the odds of the horse on the TAB might be $5.50 so essentially i'd be winning more. Of course the reverse holds true, that a $5 fave on my ratings would be a $2 bet but may only be paying $1.50 on TAB. Essentially with this method i'm backing my ratings to help me put the most money on my best rated changes.

Another option that a friend of mine is exploring using my ratings is to adjust the staking size on a number of factors. So he bets every single one of my top raters in qualifying races (fields of 8+ and of good quality) and adjusts the stake based on factors. For instance we went through all my data and collated various statistics to see where my ratings performed best.

So he has his initial stake at $9, his maximum bet is $15 and minimum is $3. He adjusts the $9 stake by using percentages based on the following factors:

Day of week
Venue
Race Number
Saddlecloth Number
Conditions

there are some others but I can't think of them from top of my head right now. So essentially he might be betting $15 bets on a sunday at any VR races etc etc as its shown historically to be more profitable with those factors.

Anyhow just thought i'd outline some ideas i've got floating in my head at the moment. :)

Nice one Evajb001,

From memory the overlays were kicking serious B-U-T-T!!! So might be fruitful to revisit that method. Sometimes you can tinker too much with what is essentially a sound, profitable approach.

A simple approach to overlays, put your minimum price into the Betfair SP tool. Go and play Golf, or the fiddle, or the markets. :)

Have a great day mate.

TheSchmile,

The overlays one kicked butt on backtesting but had mediocre performance in live betting however i didn't bet it with enough discipline to truely tell if it was working.

If the BetFair SP Tool something that I can download and use? I'm thinking that I could possibly trial betting only on horses that are 80% or greater of my estimated pricing. I don't want to narrow down my bets too much as enjoy having money on something daily.

Anyhow here are todays/tonights plays:

Coffs Harbour - Race 9

No.
1 Spiritist

Moonee Valley - Race 7

No.
3 Alrouz

Moonee Valley - Race 8

No.
3 Vibrant Rouge

Canterbury - Race 4

No.
3 Inventive

Canterbury - Race 6

No.
5 Lady Gazerra

off to a good start today.

Hi evajb001,
The Betfair SP tool is part of the Betfair package:

1/ Click on the blue SP button
2/ A box will appear in the top right hand corner of the my bets section of the screen, which is on the right-hand side of the main screen saying 'set SP odds limit'.
3/ Click in the box and then type in your minimum acceptable price and stake.

Sorry evajb001,

If you're not currently using Betfair then my instructions may not make sense (may as well be from IKEA :))

The Blue button is for backing and the pink for laying.

Instructions to get to the race are:

1/ Click on the racing tab near the top far left of the screen
2/ Click on 'Horse racing' -> 'Aus' then the meeting and the race number.

then

3/ Click on the blue SP button next to your selection
4/ A box will appear in the top right hand corner of the 'my bets' section of the screen, which is on the right-hand side of your main screen saying 'set SP odds limit'.
5/ Click in the box and then type in your minimum acceptable price and stake.
6/ Confirm and you're Golden.

Hey guys,

Sorry TS I thought you meant there was an actual downloadable tool that would allow me to do it that BF provided. I personally can't stand BF's website after using sportsbet for so long, they are worlds apart.

Luckily last night was finally the profitable day I'd been waiting for and I was at the pub to take advantage. Started the night with $100, got absolutely tanked, had some dinner with entre's and came home with $160.

I'll post today's plays shortly, just have a black panadol (can of pepsi max) first to aid in curing this hangover. Best of luck to all today :)

Caulfield - Race 5

No.
4 Bia Diamond

Warwick Farm - Race 5

No.
6 Forfeiture

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
3 Jet Style

Morphettville - Race 7

No.
12 Aregee McLaren

Ascot - Race 3

No.
4 Watermans Bay

Ascot - Race 4

No.
10 Galaxy Prince

Ascot - Race 5

No.
11 Elusive Image

How did your ratings and bets go today mate?