Northerly's not noted for his first up performances. Why would they risk a hard run with much bigger fish around the corner?

(8) Competitor only scratching from the Hannans.

My selctions:

Ellicorsam - Dead Eye Dick - Regal Raider - Finito

Hannans.

(7) Call Me Henry
(6) Ellicorsam
(5) Changing Lanes
(3) River Mist

A great win by elli!

Yes Geez, a great win.
Just watched the race on Fox, was a bit sceptical before the race but now I'm a convert - huge win against a good field. Another trip east might be on the cards.

Cup.

(2) My Thornbird
(15) Reigning Fort
(1) Blevvo
(7) Ca Cao

Cup.
Commonsense = Blevvo
Gut = Ca Cao

PPM (Special) = Morocco Bound!

Cup market

BLEVVO $4.60
MY THORNBIRD $5.50
REIGNING FORT $7.50
QUASAROCK $9.00
BOLD MIRAGE $9.00
CA CAO $11.00
MERCEDARIO $14.00
PRICELESS MATT $15.00
COMPETITOR $18.00
PRISTINE PARTNERS $18.00
VIOLENT WIND $18.00
GAMBACE (1E) $18.00
MOROCCO BOUND $21.00
CHASSEUR $41.00
VICTORY LORD (2E) $41.00
MOSS MINSTER (3E) $51.00
NOON $71.00
AL DIDNAVADAD SCR
CONSPIRATOR SCR


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-10 15:01 ]

Final field Budget Rent A Car Trophy

1 Northerly 2 64.5 Pat Carbery F R Kersley
2 Sabre Chief 10 55 Craig Staples C H Webster
3 Beyond Dispute 7 54 Brad Parnham N D Parnham
4 Kennett 12 54 Jason Whiting A D Mathews
5 Shoeless 8 53 Paul King N E Pascoe
6 Royal Minx 3 52.5 Jason Brown J P Taylor
7 Aussie Strike 4 52 Troy Turner R B Rogers
8 Halopak 1 52 Jessica Roesler P H Jordan
9 Paris Bank 5 52 Peter Farrell B R Larsson
10 Shotgun Kid 9 52 William Pike B M Dudley
11 So Long Syd 6 52 Dion Luciani S R Plumb
12 Young Bill 11 52 Damian Miller H S Mc Laren

Budget Rent A Car Trophy selections:

Beyond Dispute - Royal Minx - Northerly - So Long Syd

Cup selections:

Reigning Fort - Priceless Matt - My Thornbird - Mercedario

Gunner's Goers

Belmont 11/9

R1 4-2-3-5
R2 8-4-1-7
R3 1-3-2-11
R4 3-9-8-6
R5 6-1-3-2
R6 2-7-3-6
R7 3-2-8-4
R8 4-9-8-10

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[ This Message was edited by: Ozgunner on 2004-09-11 13:47 ]

Kal Cup

1-2-15-5

Reported in the press this morning that if Northerly pulls up OK after todays race, will start in the Underwood (sep 19) and then likely the Yalumba (oct 9). Would then assume start in the Cox (oct 23).

Track fast for the cup.
Gambace and Victory Lord get a start - Al Didnavadad, Consprirator and Moss Minster are all out.

My Thornbird to carry 54kg and not 54.5kg as listed in some form guides.

Does anybody have any good tips for Belmont today, it’s a lovely day here in Perth and thought I go and see this horse Northerly run.

Thanks

A great return to racing by the fighting tiger!! Let's see how he goes next 48 hours. Fingers crossed.

Great to be part of a little bit of history yesterday Paddy along with around double the normal crowd. As you would imagine the champ looked like he would need the run but performed well above what I expected. He really loves racing!

3/4 fit and almost! Great atmosphere yesterday. How about the thunderous applause when he returned to scale....like he'd won a big race, instead of running 4th.

Confirmed Northerly booked to fly out of Perth tomorrow night, arriving in Melbourne Tues morning for the Underwood.

I'm not all that convinced that Northerly will race anywhere near his best (if that's possible, he is getting on) in next 2 or 3 starts. Big risk IMO.

i think its great to see Northerly racing..
He's going to be backed by the public even if he rolls out there in a wheelchair so they'll be value in other runners in the race..and if he wins it'll be the first time ever i won't be all that upset about losing my money :smile:
This is Australia's very own Sea Biscuit..pity we dont have a broken down jockey to ride him..Give Bernie the ride ! now that would be a fairytale..

For what it is worth I've rated Northerly's run on Saturday 2.75 lengths below his best ever rating over 1600m in Perth.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-13 13:41 ]

Similar here Sandgroper.

WOW. I'm used to traveling around Europe following my soccer team, but I had know idea people would turn out to see a horse in the way I saw Saturday at Belmont, Their was even "Go Northerly" T-shirts and caps for sell. I must admit I did get caught up in all the cheering on for Northerly, even if I did back Royal minx. I would not have been upset if Northerly had won.

What a great day.

Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing! In an effort to improve my strike rate I’ve just started analysing any ‘good field’ race result where I’ve been way off the mark with my predictions. I am hoping this will broaden my understanding of what to watch out for, when doing pre-race form.

For example, didn’t even look at Violent Wind in the Cup but looking back over the form now, did have a good EW show. In between country stints back in March, had 4 starts at Ascot over middle distance, beaten (in order of starts) 1.25L, HD, 1.75L and 1.25L

Then if you look at last 2 starts prior to the Cup, ran last of 16 (1600m) beaten 5.75L but “raced wide from the 700m” then ran 6th in the Boulder Cup (1760m) beaten 3.5L but again “raced wide from 800m crowded and bumped concluding stages.”


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[ This Message was edited by: Geez on 2004-09-13 22:34 ]

Do similar when a horse performs well above expected rating either winning or finishing close to winner. Keep a bit of a scenario snapshot in case there is some pattern I'm not accounting for. Also observe very closely next couple of starts. Doesn't happen a lot, and where there doesn't appear to be any valid reason for the sharp improvement, around 80% of the candidates never reach that level again, which does make you wonder a bit.


Anyway, Pat Carbery to ride the champ on Sunday, Greg Childs booked for the Cox.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-14 10:16 ]

Would be great to see Pat also get the ride on the champ in Yalumba if he starts in that race.

can't believe they put carvery on. what about a rawiller boy.

if they are going to run northerly in a wheelchair perhaps he would be better placed in the metropolitan.

(just a joke)

Lightly raced 4YO Siesta Bay was a surprise travelling companion with Northerly. Little bit disappointing last preparation, thought he won with a bit up the sleeve on Saturday - I've rated the run just 1.5 lengths below his very best performance, so does looks promising for a good campaign this time around.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-14 21:13 ]

Cheers Perth Placegetter. Sounds like one to watch out for when it debuts over here :wink:

Siesta Bay hasn’t gone well first-up before Saturday’s run. Was a bit hesitant to back him myself but there was good money for him, so I followed suit. Judging by the run and your rating Sandgroper, he is obviously more forward than previous preparations. Let’s hope a decent price on his eastern states debut cause if he does well, we’ll probably not get those odds again.

Given Siesta Bay is trained by Fred doubt we'll get any fancy price, but you never know.


Here's the field for the Carnarvon Cup on Sat over 2000m, if anyone is interested.

1 Mirror Moon 12 OPN 58.5 P M Evans
2 No Anchor 9 CL6 56.5 G G Patten
3 Co Striker 3 CL6 56 B M Carpenter
4 Maroona (B) 10 CL6 56 P J Daly
5 Changing The Guard (B) 8 OPN 55.5 K R Mahoney
6 Optimizer (B) 4 CL6 55.5 L W Healey
7 Party Boy (B) 6 OPN 55.5 P J Daly
8 Thunder And Halo 7 OPN 55.5 G A Rodier
9 Balidor(NZ) (B) 1 CL4 55 K R Mahoney
10 Initial Arrest 5 CL6 55 P J Daly
11 Irish Dance (B) 11 CL4 55 J Scott
12 Shaw River 2 CL4 55 G A Rodier
13 Chipper's Leap (B) E 1 13 CL1 55 K R Mahoney


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-15 01:40 ]

Didn't take Paul Harvey long to get back in the swing of things following his 3 months suspension.

2 winners and a close 2nd from 4 rides!

Carnarvon Cup thoughts.

Party Boy could easily lead them all the way. 5 starts from a spell all up north, should be ready to show best.


The consistent Optimizer is lightly raced and looks well in at the weights. If can handle the step up in distance would be a strong show.


Co Striker has some reasonable recent city form and won the Newman Cup easily last start with dashing dan aboard. Good chance.


Mirror Moon was subject of a stewards inquiry last start after performing poorly at Carnarvon. Before that won the Broome Cup and then ran 2nd in the Onslow Cup. Can't leave out.

Remember backing Party Boy at Ascot back in April. Got 50/1 EW. Kicked clear rounding the turn, the old heart went a pumping :lol:

Still a place chance about 100 metres out but walked the last bit. He can tire quickly!!

Carnarvon Cup with jockeys

1 Mirror Moon 12 OPN 58.5 Jeremy Hustwitt P M Evans
2 No Anchor 9 CL6 56.5 Dominic Tourneur G G Patten
3 Co Striker 3 CL6 56 Peter Hall B M Carpenter
4 Maroona (B) 10 CL6 56 David Randall P J Daly
5 Changing The Guard (B) 8 OPN 55.5 Roy Mc Kay K R Mahoney
6 Optimizer (B) 4 CL6 55.5 Jim Lemon L W Healey
7 Party Boy (B) 6 OPN 55.5 Neil Chapman P J Daly
8 Thunder And Halo 7 OPN 55.5 Jessica Hill G A Rodier
9 Balidor(NZ) (B) 1 CL4 55 Corey Farrell K R Mahoney
10 Initial Arrest 5 CL6 55 Tamara Zanker P J Daly
11 Irish Dance (B) 11 CL4 55 Antoinette Armes J Scott
12 Shaw River 2 CL4 55 Shane Cull G A Rodier


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-16 17:51 ]

IMO Celtus didn’t handle the Sydney way of going in the Newcastle Cup today. Hung like the proverbial. Gear change needed if they are going to persevere. Otherwise we might just get a nice price next time he goes around the Perth way of going.

Interesting thread. Good work guys.

Like (8) Thunder And Halo EW in the Carnarvon Cup. 22 starts 8 wins - great strike. Nice weight. Slight doubt distance (untried). Good luck with the punt!