Bets 116; Won 79; Lost 37
Units Staked: 112 units; Won 15.70 units; ROI 14%


Pennetta v Linetskya
Rome: Round 2

Still not convinced that Linetskya is at home on clay while Pennetta, despite
a small concern over her foot, has a stellar clay record.

Pennetta $1.57 1 UNIT Ladbrokes


Mauresmo v Stosur
Rome: Round 2

Go Aussie! I don't think so. You won't see me betting at these odds too often but Mauresmo just has too much game for the hard-courter Stosur.

Mauresmo $1.10 generally available 1 UNIT


Jankovic v Zvonereva
Rome: Round 2

Jankovic is red-hot at the moment while Zvonereva is in a woeful form slump (0-3 over the past clay month). zvonereva is a good clay-courter so this could be close.


Jankovic $1.50 1 UNIT 5Dimes


Petrova v Santangelo
Rome: Round 2

Santangelo - a surprise winner yesterday - has a poor clay record at the WTA
level while Petrova had her chances of beating Henin-Hardenne in last week's
Berlin clay Final. Short odds again but some value.

Petrova $1.18 1 UNIT 5Dimes


Martinez v Smashnova
Rome: Round 2

Should be a close game but Martinez is in better form over the past few weeks. Smashnova usually has trouble with Martinez's style of play as it limits her power so she will be relying on her serve.

Martinez $1.71 1 UNIT 5Dimes

Thanks for the support Macca - always appreciated.

To be honest, the past 4 weeks has been a rather ordinary spell. I'm very marginally ahead over this recent period but as with all punting, it's the long-term that's important.

I've had a few email questions recently about my returns (woof9898@yahoo.com.au) so in summary: my program has generated just over 1500 bets in the 16 months they've been running for a 12.65% return. But I wouldn't take my word for it, I'd recommend tracking these tips for about 300 selections before being confident my methods aren't due to luck.

Bets 121; Won 82; Lost 39
Units Staked: 117 units; Won 14.72 units; ROI 12.6%


Martinez v Petrova
Rome: Round 3

Petrova may well come out and win this but Martinez is a crafty and very experienced clay courter who shouldn't be underestimated. Petrova's way too short in the market.

Martinez $3.75 @ Ladbrokes HALF UNIT


Dulko v Linetskya
Rome: Round 3

Linetskya squeaked passed Pennetta yesterday so she has some form but I still rate Dulko a superior clay player. My only complaint regarding Dulko is that she's rather temperamental.

Dulko $1.70 Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Pous Tio v Nagyova
Prague:

Should be a close game but Pous Tio has the edge after winning last week's
Cagnes sur Mer (C75) clay Challenger tournament. She also has a superior
all-round record which should overcome Nagyova's home crowd support.

Pous Tio $1.75 Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Schnyder v Ivanovic
Rome: Round 3

Never a good idea to underestimate Ivanovic as she can certainly play but Schnyder has the edge and better record on clay. Ivanovic's looked a little off her game in her last two clay matches whereas Schnyder's played quite consistently.

Schnyder $1.90 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(not often we see standout WTA prices from Centrebet)



NOTES: Mauresmo is way too short in the market. I'd back Farina Elia but the bookies are keeping the outsider short. The 0-6 h2h record doesn't bother me as the only relevant games have been close enough. Farina Elia in front of a home crowd could go close - they played a 3-setter in the QF's of this tournament last year. Betfair account holders could consider laying Mauresmo around $1.17-ish (equals odds around $6.58 for Farina Elia) but I wouldn't go in too hard.

Mate you were dead unlucky tonight, you should of had the sweep. I still can't comprehend how Dulko lost her match after all the chances she had.

Bets 124; Won 84; Lost 40
Units Staked: 120 units; Won 15.37 units; ROI 12.8%


The bookies have posted Prague very early today - it's about time! I may post an extra bet when Rome lines are released. I'd like a price on Schnyder.

Ondraskova v Diaz-Oliva
Prague QF

Diaz-Oliva has the experience while Ondraskova has the recent form with a solid showing in Warsaw last week and a good finals appearance at the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago. Should be close but value with the outsider.

Ondraskova $2.15 @ 5Dimes 1 UNIT


Brandi v Pous Tio.
Prague: QF

Pous Tio, though a true clay-courter, doesn't play very often at this level. Her best form has been in Challengers, many of them lowly rated C10's and C50's. She won for us yesterday but if hard-courter Brandi gets her serve going, Pous Tio will find the going much harder. Brandi's win over the highly-ranked clay-courter Loit in Round 1 underlines this bet.

Brandi $2.05 @ WillHills 1 UNIT
(Prices could vary a lot on this match-up - bookies might find them hard to split)

Sparks - a sweep would have been nice but lady luck can sometimes bite you on the ********. Dulko really threw the match away after leading 3:0 in the second. She has a great deal of talent but her mental tencacity is often questionable.

(Today's bets below).

Bets 126; Won 85; Lost 41
Units Staked: 122 units; Won 15.52 units; ROI 12.7%


1-1 last night for a small profit.


Safina v Pous Tio
Prague: SF

Pous Tio did the job yesterday and has generally exceeded expectations this week. However Safina is about 3 or 4 classes above anyone she's played thus far and while the odds are short, there's still value in the Russian's price.

Safina $1.18 @ WillHills 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be backing Sharapova in either of her next two matches. Schnyder can certainly win today and it's worth laying Sharapova at Betfair below $1.20 for a small sum. If Sharapova prevails - and if she plays Mauresmo in the final, she will probably start favourite (judging by outright prices). However Sharapova's recent results reinforce my opinion that she is essentially a fast-surface player. Her footwork is poor for clay and her constant "big-hitting" approach to every point leads to a lot of errors when facing a competent opponent. Sharapova will go to Number 1 in the rankings if she wins Rome so there is some motivation/pressure, but it must be noted that she's never won a clay title at WTA level. She would also have gone to Number 1 if she won Berlin last week but failed to do so when comprehensively outplayed by Henin-Hardenne. I believe Mauresmo should be favourite if she reaches the final along with Sharapova - so keep an eye on the early prices. Anything above $1.75 for Mauresmo is worth a decent punt.

Bets 127; Won 86; Lost 41
Units Staked: 123 units; Won 15.70 units; ROI 12.8%

Safina did just enough to win last night but a rather insipid performance.

The prices on tonights matches are about right. Mauresmo has made 5 finals
appearances in Rome and should win - but Schnyder is in very good form and is
more then capable of an upset. The same applies in Prague. Safina has the
reputation but like her brother Marat Safin, she can be a little 'erratic' at times.
Ondraskova is in good shape and has the game to win but I 'll play safe and wait
for Monday. Two new tournaments with quite a few interesting matchups.

Two tournaments this week as warm-ups to Roland Garros.

http://www.internationaux-tennis-st...hp?page=accueil
http://www.istanbulcup.com/EngDefault.aspx


There's the usual Monday hassles of bookies being slow to price up. I'll
post early lines and adjust them if the prices come in.



Craybas v Panova
Istanbul: Round 1

Perish the thought - I'm betting on Jill Craybas on clay! Well she's proved me wrong over the past few weeks and has put in some reasonable performances on the dirt. Her opponent Panova is in woeful form and is a poor 42/57 on clay.

Craybas $1.65 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT



Bondarenko v Washington
Istanbul: Round 1

Bondarenko is young Ukranian with solid clay credentials. While her best form has been on the Challenger circuit, her opponent Washington is a poor 26/34 on clay. The ageing Washington has also lost her last 8 games with her most recent win coming at the Australian Open.


Bondarenko $1.60 1 Unit
(at smaller bookies - should be better later)



Morigami v Raymond
Strasbourg: Round 1

Raymond's been in ok form recently but is first up on red clay after a short break. Both women probably prefer it faster but Morigami, who's one of the best Japanese clay players, has recent wins over Vaidisova and Benesova. This should be close but Morigami has the edge.

Morigami $1.87 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(poor margins at Centrebet - may be better later)

Bets 130; Won 87; Lost 43
Units Staked: 125.5 units; Won 15.07 units; ROI 12.2%

Strasbourg was washed out yesterday so it's turning into a bit of
a shambles with a lot of games backed up.


Garrigues v Stosur
Round 1: Strasbourg.

Spanish clay-courter born on the dirt who gets a lot of balls back versus the hard-courter stosur who rates clay as her least favourite surface.

Garrigues $1.40 @ 1 Unit 5Dimes


Douchevina v Asagoe
Round 1: Strasbourg

Douchevina has been in ordinary form lately but she has been unfortunate in some repects as she's drawn some quality players. Douchevina has a better clay record than Asagoe who is playing for a Top 20 spot so she'll be motivated. Slower and wetter conditions should favour Douchevina as Asagoe doesn't play much on the dirt.

Douchevina $2.58 HALF UNIT 5Dimes


Groenefeld v Diaz-Oliva
Round 1: Istanbul

The hard-hitting German is at home on clay and has had a successful Challenger tour on the surface. She's young and fiesty as opposed to the inconsistent Diaz-Oliva who has few Top 50 wins under her belt.

Groenefeld $1.60 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

Bets 133; Won 90; Lost 43
Units Staked: 128 units; Won 16.64 units; ROI 13%


Three from three last night so a good result.

Prices have been fluctuating more so than usual so it's best to keep an eye on the market. In the record I'll lower Groenefeld to $1.55 and Douchevina to $2.50 as their prices came in a wee bit. They could have been bet at higher prices but these only lasted an hour or so. Douchevina drifted as high as $2.70

May post extra 2 bets after 5Dimes and Pinnacle price up. I'd like a price on Groenefeld and Smashnova.

Garrigues v Frazier
Strasbourg: Round 2

An ageing hard-courter, Amy Frazier, meets an in-form clay-court specialist. Frazier has a negative clay record (24/27) and is coming off some ordinary form. She beat defending champion Schaul in a rain affected match but Schaul is also in the worst form of her career. Garrigues is the sort of player who gets everything back and she should have too much today.

Garrigues $1.80 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(might be better prices later as poor margins at Centrebet)


Morigami v Peer
Istanbul: Round 2

A close match-up. Peer is a young up-and-comer who's relatively inexperienced on clay as she prefers it much faster. I feel a lot of her price is based on her reputation as opposed to her clay skills. Morigami was impressive in her Round 1 demolition of Lisa Raymond. The Japanese player is two-handed on both sides which seems to suit this surface. A close game but the edge is with Morigami.

Morigami $1.80 @ Olympic 1 Unit
(also available at smaller books. Might be better prices later but this is ok value)


Notes: I wouldn't advise backing Vaidisova at such short odds. However, she's definitely worth laying below $1.20 for a small sum at Betfair (you'll probably be able to lay her below $1.15). Vaidisova's has a big reputation but is inexperienced on clay. She's first up here while Abramovic came through qualies.

Bets 135; Won 91; Lost 44
Units Staked: 130 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.6%

One win and one loss last night for a small betting loss.

Garrigues price came in slightly so I'll reduce her to $1.75 in the record.

Groenefeld v Vaidisova
Istanbul: QF

I rate the hard-hitting Groenefeld a better clay-court player than Vaidisova. For a start Groenefeld's has a 59/23 record on clay compared to Vaidsova's 8/3 record. She's also won several Challenger tournaments - something Vaidisova hasn't done. Nonetheless this should be a close game but Vaidisova's glamour factor and hardcourt reputation are skewing her price. She may of course win but the value is with the fiesty red-headed German.

Groenefeld $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(higher prices available at smaller bookies)


Garrigues v Douchevina
Strasbourg: QF

Prior to this tournament Douchevina was in woeful form and while she's had a couple of good results here, she doesn't deserve to be favourite as she is at some bookies. Garrigues is in good form, has more experience and better career results on clay.

Garrigues $2.09 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Not the slightest bit interested in WTA,but congratulations on your profit and congratulations on sharing your output.

Good effort with Garrigues Marco.

Took your advice last night, but tonight, unfortunately, stayed away.

Thanks Moeee and Mercurial - much appreciated.

Moeee - to be honest, I'm not a huge fan of tennis myself - women's or men's.

I ended up betting on the WTA because of the sports I tested on my computer model, women's tennis provided the best returns. I've also found it beneficial to specialise in one sport.

One thing with these tips is that they're only of any real value over the long-term. A 16-month history suggests the current 12-13% ROI is a realistic return so there's not much chance of being an 'overnight success'.

Good luck with the punt.

Marco, Great work. Do not sell yourself short. On your 16 months statistics, you are sitting on a potential cash cow.
If we bring your 16 month total bets of 1500 back to a 12 month average of 1125 bets you will soon see why.
At a paltry $500 per unit (playing one unit per play), you would generate $562,000 per annum in turnover. At a ROI of 12%, a profit of $67,500 would result.
Your high strike rate ensures that a "Risk of Ruin" is negligible if you started with working capital equivalent to 40 units or $20,000.
Now most of the "mugs" on this site would have to agree that $67,500 tax free per year is not too shabby at all. The problem with most on this forum is that they would not be prepared to put up the $20K in the first place and if they did, they would probably not have the intestinal fortitude to keep placing $500 on EVERY play especially after the inevitable "losing sequence" kicks in.
I have been lurking on here for a while and I must say it is refreshing to see posts of your calibre. I rarely post because I'm not into "free tips competitions", and tips like "I think such and such is a good bet" when there is no logical backup to the accompanying statement. I think I recall on the AFL forum someone said he thought a certain team would win the flag and then proceeded to tell us he had never seen them play. Give me a break!!
Your posts are truly logical and give the reader some insight into why you are picking a certain player.
Keep up the tremendous work.

Bets 137; Won 92; Lost 45
Units Staked: 132 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.4%

One win and one loss last night. I'll reduce Garrigues' price to $2.00 in the record as it came in a bit. This makes last night a break-even affair (though those betting early would have made a small profit).

Smashnova-Pistolesi v Vaidisova
Istanbul: SF

I'll oppose 16-year-old Vaidisova again. Sure, she's proved me wrong twice this week but Smashnova is the best clay player Vaidisova has faced in her very short 9/3 WTA clay career. Smashnova's record is 106/72 which includes many wins over top-ranked players. Her best tournament performances have come on clay and she's beaten 3 players this week without breaking into a sweat. Vaidisova can of course win but her price is rather surprising. The value is definitely with Smashnova.

Smashnova $1.90 @ Centrebet 1 Unit


Garrigues v Dechy
Strabourg: SF

Garrigues has played well this week though today's game is a tough proposition. Dechy's a capable player but she is very inconsistent on clay. Her recent form has been rather patchy and Garrigues, while not having any big weapons, is frustratingly good at using the baseline to make opponents play a lot of balls. Dechy will need to be at her best - something she hasn't been in her games this week.

Garrigues $2.65 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(there's better prices available at smaller bookies)

Thanks Macca.

I will say one thing, punting, full-time or part-time, is a tough game and it's never quite as easy as we think. I appreciate the 12-13% is a solid ROI but past returns are no indictaion of future profits etc etc so I try to take a low key approach. In the end it's just another desk job - do the research, crunch the numbers.

Mind you, I still boot the TV every now and again when certain bets lose - but I'm getting better at it (losing that is, not kicking the TV)

Bets 139; Won 93; Lost 46
Units Staked: 134 units; Won 17.04 units; ROI 12.7%


One win and one loss last night for a nice profit. The prices are about right for the finals so no bets. Domachowska was almost a bet but not quite enough value. Venus should win in a canter (plus her draw at Roland Garros looks very favourable).

Back Monday - there should be a fair bit of action.

Roland Garros

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/index.html

One of the great tennis events of the year.

#1 Seed: Lindsay Davenport - The only Grand Slam she hasn't won. Clay definitely her worst surface. Very poor mover/footwork on the dirt. She's never won better than a Tier 3 title on red clay and she won't win this year.

#2 Seed: Maria Sharapova - Has never won a title on red or green clay. had the chance to go to Number 1 on two occassions in the past few weeks and blew them both. Her big-hitting style and lack of patience doesn't suit the surface. She won't win this year.

#3 Seed: Amelie Mauresmo - has the game to win, of that there's no doubt but does she have the mental tenacity. She's well known for her Grand Slam failures including Roland Garros - her home court and favourite surface. An outside chance this year.

#4 Seed: Elena Dementieva - Has played only 1 game on red this swing which she lost. Her infamous weak serve is less of a problem on clay but her mental fragility often sees her collapse in a heap. A finalist last year but this was more of a 'one-off so definitely worth opposing.

#5 Seed: Anastasia Myskina - defending champion beset by personal problems (ill mother) is in a horrible form slump. She's also carrying a nagging shoulde injury which has limited her once-effective serve. She will not win this year and is worth opposing.

#6 Seed: Svetlana Kuznetsova - Hasn't been at her best leading into the tournament and is more of an all round player as opposed to clay specialist. Will win a few but worth opposing later in draw.

#7 Seed: Nadia Petrova - has been in solid form during this clay swing and on her day she can beat the best players. Her one weakness is her mental nerve - like many of her compatriots she can surrender fairly meekly.

#8 Seed: Patty Schnyder - an excellent clay player who is in the best form of her career. Plenty of experience and she can go deep into the draw. Can she win? I doubt it. Her mental discipline is improving but she's prone to the odd shocker. A dark horse worth following.

#9 Seed: Vera Zvonareva - she's all over the place this season. Though winning a few recent games, she's been in a terrible form slump and hasn't won on red clay above Tier 3. Worth opposing as she will throw in a shocker sometime during this tournament.

#10 Seed: Justine Henin-Hardenne - an out-and-out champion on any surface . . . but even better on clay. She's won a couple of tournaments after an 8 month injury layoff and should win this. Not much value in the outrights but worth following later in the tournament.

#11 Seed: Venus Williams - just won the lowly rated Istanbul clay tournament and in good form over the past few weeks. Has a solid clay record and the ability but never seems to fare well at Roland Garros. An outside chance but she'll have to be at her best.

Notes: Kim Clijster's almost withdrew from the tournament and faces a tough draw. Carrying a knee injury so worth opposing later in the draw.

Serena Williams withdrew from tournament.


First round tips posted very soon.

Geez, I wish the bookies went by the seedings. Would be great if Justine was 10th in the betting!!! :D

Yep, I also wish that was the case Sportz.

Funnily enough Henin-H probably has one of the more difficult First Round match-ups as she plays the tricky Conchita Martinez.

Generally very little value on the favourites during the early rounds of slams as every man and his dog piles on the 'name' players. I'll therefore be looking to pick a few upsets with a view to making a profit across the selections.

In 2003 and 2004 the bookies favourite won 82 of the 128 First Round matches at Roland Garros. Thus favourites won approx 64% while dogs went 36%.


Krajicek v Hantuchova
Round 1

Both players will ahve to be at their best to win this as my ratings have them evenly matched coming into this game. Clay is Hantuchova's least favourite surface and she's very beatable on the dirt. Krajicek was raised on clay and while inexperienced, she has a 16/5 record and certainly has the game to win. Krajicek also has the advantage of 3 qualifying 'warm-up' wins while Hantuchova hasn't played since a first round loss in Rome. This is closer than the prices suggest so a value play on Krajicek.

Krajicek $2.50 @ generally available. HALF UNIT


Mamic v Raymond
Round 1

I rate Mamic a slight favourite here against the ageing yet very experienced Raymond. Raymond's only had the one game on red this swing - a first round loss at Istanbul - and she has a moderate 40/38 carrer record on the surface. Mamic is a clay specialist, and while a lot of her results have come on the Challenger circuit, she has a 81/35 career record. Raymond is a tough competitor and this is her 40th consecutive Grand Slam so mamic will have to be at her best, but I rate her a 56.2% chance so will take the odds.

Mamic $2.00 @ Bet365. HALF UNIT
(better prices at some smaller bookies)


Fedak v Likhovtseva
Round 1

I rate the ageing Likhovtseva a slight favourite here so the price on Fedak is appealing. Likhovtseva comes into this match in very average form. She's only played 3 games on red this swing - two of which she lost albeit to good players (Smashnova & Pierce). She does have plenty of experience and a 65/56 record but she's more of an all-rounder who prefers it a bit faster. Fedak is a stubborn player who gets a lot of balls back thereby forcing opponents to play a lot of shots. She has a 62/43 record and has quite good recent form. Fedak's a 46.7% chance in my book so I'll take her on price

Fedak $4.23 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Schruff v Asagoe
Round 1

Asagoe is nothing special on clay and has a 17/20 career record. She comes into this match in ordinary form having lost her first round matches in Strasbourg and Rome. These were her only 2 games on red caly during this swing. Schruff is no world-beater but she has been in good form and has a respectable 75/64 clay record. She beat Myskina in Berlin, and while defending-champion Myskina is in woeful form, this still represents a good result. I rate these two fairly evenly - though a lot of Asagoe's form comes form green clay which is a faster surface. Schruff will have to play well but she's a definite chance.

Schruff $2.75 5Dimes HALF UNIT



Kirilenko v Birnerova
Round 1

Kirilenko is a future star who has been in good form and has a solid 21/12 clay record. She took a set of Henin-H in Berlin so she knows how to play. Birnerova is a basically a Challenger player who came through qualies. She's a clay specialist with a solid 52/35 record but has few wins against Top 50 players. It's rare that I oppose qualifiers in the First round but Kirilenko shouldn't have too much trouble today - she's got plenty of spirit and always plays to win.


Kirilenko $1.32 @ 5Dimes. 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be in a hurry to back Clijster's in the early rounds until the extent of her knee injury can be gauged. Nor would I be in a hurry to back Davenport (see preview post) as she's first up on red and has been on a break for a few weeks.

Bets 144; Won 94; Lost 50
Units Staked: 137 units; Won 15.04 units; ROI 11%

A rather poor start to Roland Garros. Things just didn't fall our way as Fedak and Kirilenko both had good leadsonly to fall short. While frustrating, days like this are all part of the game


Peer v Bartoli
Round 1

Bartoli is first up on red clay having not competed since Miami more than 5 weeks ago where she retired with a knee injury. This is the same injury that also forced her to retire twice in the month preceding Miami. She has a 23/23 record on clay and while Peer is better on hard, she's very quick on court and has the ability to make Bartoli run. peer has a 25/12 career record though a few of these games were on the Challenger circuit.

Peer $1.85 @ 5Dimes/Centrebet 1 unit


Beltrame v Spears
Round 1

Neither of these players are world-beaters but Beltrame is a specialist clay courter with a 58/43 record who has also won several Challenger titles. Spears is a hard courter with a big serve and little else. She's 1-10 on clay and very rarely plays on the surface.

Beltrame $1.45 @ 5Dimes 1 unit

Dulko v Mirza
Round 1

Mirza can certainly play on harcourts but clay is a different matter as she rarely plays on the surface. Most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit plus she's returning from injury and is only third up on red clay having being beaten in the Strasbourg qualifiers. Dulko, while rather temperamental, is a good clay player with a history of progressing a few rounds at Roland Garros.

Dulko $1.33 @ Sportingodds/Sportingbet 1 unit

Just noticed that I forgot to include the following:

Garrigues v Mandula
Round 1

Garrigues is in red hot form at the moment having just won Strasbourg. Both players are solid clay-courters and while Mandula came through qualies, she hasn't played prior to this since losing in the First round of Indian Wells nearly 2 months ago. She came through qualies in straight sets so she is obviously over her injury but on the other hand she was up against very average players.

Garrigues $1.40 @ Interwetten 1 unit.

Bets 148; Won 98; Lost 50
Units Staked: 141 units; Won 17.07 units; ROI 12.1%

A nice comeback last night going 4-0 for a good profit. We're now break even over the opening 2 days after yesterday's loss.


Razzano v Fernandez
Round 2

Razzano is in the best form of her career and while no superstar on clay (51/42 record), she has been playing well. Her only poor recent performance was a close loss to Vento-Kabchi in Rome. Fernandez can win this as she's a specialist clay-courter who came through qualies but nearly all her form is on the Challenger circuit. This includes some recent losses to very low-ranked players such as Kudryatseva who is ranked 429th. Fernandez must be given some credit for beating Panova in the first round though the Russian is very average on clay and in ordinary form.Razzano in fornt of her home crowd has
the momentum to win this.

Razzano $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Farina-Elia v Parra-Sontanja
Round 2.

In theory this a bit of a mismatch. Farina-Elia is a clay specialist with a 121/67 record who is in good form at the moment. Her recent shoulder problems are well behind her and she rarely loses to players of Sontanja's calibre. Sontanja can of course win but it would take an upset of major proportions as she hasn't been playing particularly well lately. Moreover, she rarely beats players of Farina-elia's class. You won't see betting at these odds too often but there's some value in the selection.

Farina-Elia $1.14 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(You should be able to get better odds at Betfair)


Morigami v Sprem
Round 2

Sprem is the better player but she has been in very patchy form lately. A recent change of coach and personal problems that have made headlines in Croatia have seen her lose in spectacular fashion to some very ordinary players. Today will depend a lot on her attitude. She's strung together a few ok games lately but Morigami should not be underestimated. She always puts in a big effort and fights to the last point. She's probably the most capable Japanese player on clay and has a recent win over Vaidisova. Should be close.

Morigami $2.60 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Castano v Hantuchova
Round 2

A hard-courter with an average clay record up against a specialist clay courter who is prone to some patchy form. Hantuchova got past young up-and-comer Krajicek in the First Round and deserves to be favourite but she's not at home on this surface. Her recent 1:6 2:6 loss to the average Mamic is a better indication of her form though her opponent today is also known to throw in the odd shocker. However Castano shouldn't be underestimated as she has a 77/46 record on the surface, including a few wins over highly ranked players. Hantuchova's high glamour profile and hard court reputation often distort her price so there's some value in the Columbian Castano.

Castano $2.88 @ Stan James HALF UNIT.

Loit v Frazier
Round 2

Loit is a tad unpredictable but she's a clay specialist with some ok recent form (with a few average matches thrown in). I don't rate Frazier on red clay and am always surprised at her support. Her rcord stands at 25/28 and she rarely wins over good clay players. My only concern is Loit's up-and-down attitude but the home crowd and occassion should get her across the line.

Loit $ 1.83 @ Stan James 1 Unit

Bets 153; Won 102; Lost 51
Units Staked: 145 units; Won 18.69 units; ROI 12.9%


Another good night going 4-1 for a nice return.


Peschke v Peer
Round 2

Experience versus enthusiasm as 29-year-old Peschke meets 18-year-old Israeli Shahar Peer. Pesckhe, while at home on the dirt, is more of an all-rounder though her 57/33 clay record reflects her ability. She's in good form at the moment as demonstrated by her 6:0 6:1 demolition of Randriantefy in the First Round. Peer certainly has ability and will chase every ball as she's extremely quick. However she lacks experience on clay and while ahe has a 26/13 record, more than half of these wins came on the Challenger circuit in lowly C10's and C25's. Peer has lost to most of the quality opponents she has faced - though she's probably in the best form of her short career. This won't be easy for Peschke but there's value in her price.

Peschke $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Medina Garrigues v Maleeva
Round 2

If everything goes according to the script, then Garrigues' current form should prevail over Maleeva's very up-and-down performance over the past few months. Garrigues has just won Strasbourg and put in solid First Round 6:0 6:1 win over Mandula. She's a tough player to beat because she gets a lot of balls back over the net and has plenty of patience and experience. Her opponent Maleeva has some claims. She's at home on clay and like Garrigues, is very experienced. However Maleeva's recent form has been rather patchy and her First Round win over easy-beat Fujiwara was a tad ordinary. She can win today but it would take a big form reversal or involve Garrigues beating herself. I can't see that happening as the Spaniard is sky-high on confidence at the moment.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ SportingOdds/SportingBet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

Bets 155; Won 103; Lost 52
Units Staked: 147 units; Won 18.19 units; ROI 12.3%



A relatively poor evening with Peschke losing in a rollercoaster game while Garrigues managed a straight sets win. The final result was a half unit loss for the night.


Loit v Gagliardi
Round 3

Loit is a true clay-courter who had an outstanding season last year including back-to-back clay titles in Estoril and Casablanca. This year hasn't been so good with injuries hampering her preparation so her form has been patchy at times. Roland Garros is her 'home town' slam so crowd support and her solid Round 1 and 2 performances give her a lot of momentum. Gagliardi is a very up-and-down player. Her form was so poor earlier in the year that she returned to the Challenger circuit but even this met with mixed success. Her 85/72 clay record shows Gagliardi knows the surface but she hasn't beaten anyone of consequence for some time. I don't know if Loit will go much further than this but she should be too good today.

Loit $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Williams v Karatancheva
Round 3

Short odds but Williams is a very good clay player with a wealth of experience. There's a lot of hype about 15-year-old Karatancheva's potential but it's a big ask for her to win today. She's never beaten a player anywhere near Venus's class. Pundits may point to Venus's relatively ordinary performance against clay-court specialist Zuluaga in Round 2, but this doesn't mean much to me as Zuluaga is a class act who would probably beat Karatancheva as well. Karatancheva has only faced Asagoe and Bondarenko thus far - Venus is a big step up. I don't bet at these odds very often but value exists at both end of the spectrum so I'll take the price.


Williams $1.13 @ Ladbrokes 1 Unit
(I'd still take Williams at $1.11 as Ladbrokes price might not last. Betfair is the best option)

A big upset last night with Venus losing. The Loit/Gagliardi game is suspended
at 1 set a piece so I'll update the record after all games are complete. Last
night will record a loss even if Loit wins.


Groenefeld v Schiavone
Round 3

Groenefeld has the game to win this but she'll have to be at her best. Schiavone is a very good clay player with a lot of experience and she's had a solid tournament thus far. So too Groenefeld whose 6:0 6:1 demolition of Smashnova was truly impressive. She has plenty of shots and usually attacks. Schiavone on the other hand is quite happy to grind away on court for as long as it takes - she's very patient - so expect a close game but some value with the German

Groenefeld $2.56 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT


Golovin v Bovina
Round 3

Golovin is young Russian-born French woman with a high 'glamour' profile but clay is her least favourite surface. Her hardcourt results are impressive but she has a moderate 22/14 clay record. Golovin faced a couple of easy-beats in the first two rounds so this is her first real test and Bovina is a fairly handy player. She has a 41/20 clay record and has been in reasonable form over the past few weeks. Her one weakness is usually a drop in concentration but hopefully she'll follow on from her solid play in Rome.

Bovina $2.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Llagostera-Vives v Dechy
Round 3

A tough match up for Dechy who's a little overvalued here. I have this game much closer as although she'll have home crowd support, Dechy's clay performances have been rather mixed of late. She had a very ordinary Fed Cup on clay, played quite well in Warsaw, while Berlin and Rome involved First Round exits to average players. She made the semi finals in Strasbourg - though she didn't meet any true clay-courters until Garrigues beat her. On the other hand Vives is in very good form at the moment having won Rabat (albeit a low-rated tournament) and having two competent wins thus far. She has a 99/74 clay record so has the experience to win. Should be closer than prices indicate.

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)

NOTES: Henin-Hardenne took medical attention on court during her last game and later announced she's been suffering from back pain over the past few weeks (muscle strain affecting nerve). She claims it won't be a problem over the duration of this tournament but it certainly puts a question mark next to her name. It will be interesting to see how she performs against the in-form Garrigues

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


She's now $2.75 at Ladbrokes

Bets 160; Won 105; Lost 55
Units Staked: 150.5 units; Won 17.19 units; ROI 11.4%

An ordinary couple of days going 2-3 and recording a loss.

Petrova v Bovina
Round 4

Bovina did the job for us last night but this will be much harder. Petrova is an experienced clay-courter who's in very good form at the moment. She made the final in Berlin - losing in a hard fought 3-set contest against Hardenne - and dispatched her 3 opponents here at Roland Garros in straight sets. Bovina is a handy enough player but she's less successful against Top 10 players tyhan the likes of Golovin whom she beat yesterday. She also has a tendancy to 'drop off' if she gets to far behind.

Petrova $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Schynder v Peirce
Round 4

This should be a cracker of a game. Both players are in very good form and both are very good on clay though Schnyder has the edge. Patty's had recent wins over Sharapova, Kuznetsova and Clijsters (though Kim retired during a massive Schynder comeback). She's cruised through the early rounds and this will be her first real test. Pierce certainly won't be easy as she's played some good tennis lately but against lesser opponents than those Schnyder has faced. Mary relies on her power game as she's not such a great mover on the dirt but Schydner is a good returner and has a deft touch so should be able to make Pierce run.

Schnyder $1.55 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

Bets 162; Won 106; Lost 56
Units Staked: 152.5 units; Won 16.72 units; ROI 11%


A disappointing evening with Schnyder bowing out though Petrova managed a narrow win.


Schiavone v Ivanovic
Round 4

This delayed match was close to being a bet yesterday, but Schaivone has now drifted overnight to a very good price. Ivanovic was certainly impressive in beating Mauresmo - though Amelie is a notorious choker at Roland Garros. Ivanovic isn't a particularly good mover on the dirt but has a lot of power for a 17-year-old. Her record is also good though nearly all her clay form is in lowly-ranked Challenger tournaments. Schiavone has the game and experience to win today. She's a real grinder who has tons of patience and the ability to return a lot of balls. She's not as flashy as her opponent but she has managed to reach the QF's at Roland Garros before. This will be closer than the prices indicate.

Schiavone $3.26 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT

NOTES: Mary Pierce has a fairly good shot at the finals. The top half of the draw has Davenport, 15-year-old Karatancheva and the ageing all-rounder Likhovtseva. Pierce plays Davenport next and is a real chance of winning if she can repeat her form from the Schnyder match. You can back Pierce around 11/1 and if all goes well, there's the possibility of laying her back in the final if desired.

Your form has been fantastic to date but I really don't see the need to be backing $1.13 favourites. Seven winners out of eight only breaks square taking $1.13. Leave them for the bookies.
You are doing great with your $1.50+ plays.

Bets 163; Won 106; Lost 57
Units Staked: 153 units; Won 16.22 units; ROI 10.7%



Can't take a trick at the moment as Schiavone lost having led 3:1 in the third set before losing 6:3

It's certainly been a poor French Open from my point of view.


Petrova v Ivanovic
QF

I've covered these two in previous write-ups but I still think Ivanovic is over rated on clay despite her performances this week. Petrova's in great from and while this should be close, the Russian has the experience and game to win.

Petrova $1.83 @ Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Henin-Hardenne v Sharapova
QF

A difficult pick risk as Justine is carrying a back niggle and is not at her best. However her champion qualities were on display during her Third Round fightback yesterday and I doubt her ultra-competitive nature will want to lose to 'glamour girl' Sharapova. Henin's done enough this week without been her dominant self while Sharapova has yet to face any stiff opposition. Sharapova
doesn't have a particularly good clay record and has fared poorly against top ranked players.

Henin-Hardenne $1.72 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit.

Late Addition
 

I'm adding one more bet as the price has moved sufficiently.

There's still more than 5 hours until this game starts.

Pierce v Davenport
QF

Two similar players on clay - lots of power and not much movement. Both have solid records though Davenport tends to avoid red clay with her best wins coming on the faster American green clay (ie Har-Tru). Pierce has had the better form prior to Roland Garros as Davenport avoided all the red clay tournaments post Amelia Island/Charleston. Pierce has also had the better performance in the first four rounds with her win over Schnyder being her stand out match. Davenport had 'lucky' escapes against Peng and Clijsters both of whom she trailed by good margins. This will be a close match but I've been waiting to oppose Davenport and tonight's the night. Davenport's also carrying a slight knee niggle but it didn't seem too problematic over the past few days.

Pierce $2.34 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT
(prices have been fluctuating all day so Pierce may drift some more).

NOTES: I'm thonk the winner of this match will reach the final so keep an eye on the outights. Pierce is around 11/1 while Davenport is around 7/1. If Hardenne loses tonight, these prices will disappear in a flash.

Fantastic night Marco. Three from three and all good odds. Keep up the great work. Have you ever thought of starting a subscription service privately? Another website charges big dollars for ATP tips and is currently losing about 80 units for 2005.

Marco, Do you think Mary will choke under the pressure if she makes the final?
Home town girl etc. She got really nervous in her previous match when she failed on numerous match points before eventually pulling through.

I'm on Henin at $3.00 and am thinking about laying some back at the Fair now that she is odds on. Schnyder was my best result at $31 but not to be. She blew a wonderful opportunity to make a Grand Slam final with the way the draw opened up in the top half.

Hi Macca - I think you still have value with your Henin selection so I personally wouldn't lay the bet off. She's a red hot chance of winning though Petrova won't be as easy as some people think.

My outright on Pierce had more to do with the draw opening up and the chances of her reaching the final after beating Schnyder. If Pierce makes the final I'll let the bet stand if she faces Petrova but will lay back the stake if she faces Henin.
Should be value either way.

Bets 166; Won 109; Lost 57
Units Staked: 155.5 units; Won 18.44 units; ROI 11.9%

A better evening going 3-0.
All 3 players were also widely available at better prices than those posted (though I'll leave them as they were in the record).

Peirce V Likhovtseva
SF

Likhovtseva is the real surprise package of this tournament. She's basically a 29-year-old journeywoman who has achieved little on the dirt but has beaten Dementieva, Farina Elia, Diaz-Oliva and Fedak thus far in Paris. On these performances she has claims today but will have to be at her very best to win. Thirty-year-old Pierce is on a real roll. Her pre Roland Garros form was strong - despite a couple of minor hiccups - while her form during this tournament has been outstanding. Likhovtseva's problem today is that she doesn't have any real weapons to win - she more or less relies on her opponent making mistakes. However she usually makes quite a few herself as her unforced error count is, more often than not, very high. Pierce may be a tad nervous as she's the last Frenchy in the tournament but she should have enough experience and desire to get home tonight.

Pierce $1.40 @ Pinnacle/5Dimes

Thanks Marco. I am actually more worried about Petrova beating Henin than the other two ladies. Petrova is a solid claycourter but at this stage I will hope Henin gets through and avoiding laying off now.