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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

TheSchmile 11th February 2013 01:16 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Thanks, T.S.

Today's selections:

Wagga
3/2, 3, 6
4/10
8/6, 11

Ararat
1/6, 7, 8, 9, 11
3/15
5/11
7/12, 13, 14


Today's T, D, & C selections:

Wagga
8/6, 11


Love the separation method!

michaelg 11th February 2013 08:33 PM

A good day - from the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for an overall profit of $92.99.

The T, D and C selections were beaten for a profit of $24.08 (included in the above overall profit).

After three weeks there have been 489 selections for 482 smiles for a profit of $1,732.

michaelg 12th February 2013 12:01 PM

Today's selections:

Queanbeyan
2/9, 10
4/2

Stony Creek
1/3, 10
2/10, 12
4/1, 5, 14
5/3
8/11, 14, 15

Townsville
3/5, 9


No T, D or C selections today.

michaelg 12th February 2013 05:16 PM

Not a bad day. There were 16 smiles from the 16 selections for a profit of $51.47.

Rinconpaul 12th February 2013 05:20 PM

Don Scott
 
I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.

The Ocho 12th February 2013 09:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.

Geez it's quite in here.

Has anyone tried Rinconpaul's suggestion?

What constitutes a short priced neural and do you still lay it when it's not the fav?

michaelg 12th February 2013 09:52 PM

Hi, Riconpaul.

Yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however I am laying them on S.P. where the size of the loss is decided, and can be minimal if so wished.

The method is doing quite well. Including the testing period there have been 2,113 selections for 2,075 smiles which is a strike/success rate of 98%. And if the current $333 liability was layed on every selection a profit of $5,429 would have been made after the 2.5 months of its existence.

Don Scott's market is framed a few days (I'm under the impression its three days) before the actual race, so the calculations cannot take into account some important factors, such as the state of the track, the barrier draw, etc.

It's not surprising Skyform has a better record then D.S. with fancied horses. However I don't think we should apply too much importance on only one day's results.

Don Scott passed away several years ago. I think the Racing and Sports website may have applied some adjustments to his original calculations even though some of the prices are quite puzzling. Our lay system isn't based solely on his market, and several filters are in force to identify which selections are to be layed.

After my positive comments hopefully the method will now not crash and burn. Some of us punters can be so superstitious.

SpeedyBen 12th February 2013 10:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.
Can you tell me what is dangerous about laying outsiders if you lay to a liability, Rinconpaul

Rinconpaul 13th February 2013 06:52 AM

Further to Don Scott ratings
 
Further to my observations yesterday I note that the only 3 winners D Scott ratings came up with was when they were in agreeance with Skyform. So simple analogy based on one day, Back any D Scott nueral fav that agrees with Skyform for 3/3 and Lay all the D Scott nueral favourites that aren't in agreeance with Skyform for a perfect 18/18. Use a Recovery staking plan. Can't do a historical as Skyform don't retain their selections that I know of, but I'll start to do a paper trial. It'll probably crash & burn!

michaelg 13th February 2013 08:04 AM

Just a query - Don Scott's market has no relationship on the neurals, they are unrelated.

I assume you mean the D.Scott market as shown on the Worksheet page?

Good luck with your findings - I'm sure there's a lot of interest here.


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