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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

Lord Greystoke 15th February 2013 02:18 PM

Rinconpaul,

But 2 prev starts do you mean career to date or this just run??

Cheers LG

Rinconpaul 15th February 2013 02:22 PM

Career to date
Cheers

michaelg 15th February 2013 03:03 PM

As you say, Rinconpaul, it's encouraging.

With $281 in profit it means you can have two immediate accidents and still be $81 in profit.

Good luck.

Rinconpaul 15th February 2013 03:10 PM

Help with SP betting
 
Michaelg I've never used Betdfair SP before. In my calcs for livin' in the 80's I 've worked back from a $100 liability to end up with a stake of say $0.67 for a 150: 1 horse. Does Betfair make you start with the min $5 stake, so in this case the liability would be $745?
Regards
RP

SpeedyBen 15th February 2013 03:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feebles
I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers
Feebles
May God give you strength.
You wouldn't happen to have the neurals data as well would you?

SpeedyBen 15th February 2013 03:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Based on $100 liability: 93 bets, no losses for a $281 profit after commission.
Encouraging, so I'll keep building a database of a 1000 races and let you know how it goes. For the Backers, of the 16 horses that passed the rules but had a SP less than $10, 6 won = 37.5% Win sr. You're right Michael about omitting DWTC form, this system would have gone down like the Titanic if I included it.
That is a good strike for the win, R. Do you have the avge price of the winners?

michaelg 15th February 2013 03:37 PM

Rinconpaul, what you have described is laying to a liability, but done in a roundabout way on the Exchange.

However, this can be done on S.P. (much easier and more convenient) where the minimum liability is $30. So if the S.P. price happens to be $30 and the selection is beaten then the profit is approximately $1. But if the selection wins the race then the loss is your nominated liability of $30.

Just divide the S.P. price (not known until a few seconds after the race has started) by your liability bet of $30, or in your case $100. If the selection unfortunately wins the race then the total amount you lose is $100. Even if the S.P. price is $1,000 you only lose $100.

That is why some of us believe laying outsiders on S.P. is less dangerous than doing so on the Exchange where the minimum bet is $5, but the amount lost can be almost mortal.

Rinconpaul 15th February 2013 04:31 PM

Reply to Michaelg & SpeedyBen
 
Thanks for the rundown, my bot will only allow a min of $5 stake with SP betting according to the manual, although it allows fractional on the exchange, so if I decide to start SP betting I'll just have to place them directly with Betfair.
As for Livin' in the 80's I'm up to 249 theoretical bets for 1 loss and a nett profit of $559 based on a $100 liability. Average stake is $2.73.
I've got my $70 for the day, with my Lay price bracket system, so I'm pulling the pin.
Got greedy yesterday and let it keep running and got slammed with a double whammy lose on each bot. It's always a tug of war with your emotions, switch from real money to simulation after you reach your target and watch it make a $200 more and kick yourself, or let it run and risk getting "T" boned.
Cheers
RP

Feebles 15th February 2013 06:28 PM

Neurals
 
Yes I have
Regards
Addy feebles36@yahoo.com.au


Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Feebles
May God give you strength.
You wouldn't happen to have the neurals data as well would you?

michaelg 15th February 2013 09:57 PM

Not a bad day - from the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for a profit of $101.62.


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